Two Dimensional Numerical Groundwater Flow Modelling Of the Megech River Catchment,Ethiopia

Two Dimensional Numerical Groundwater Flow Modelling Of the Megech River Catchment,Ethiopia | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Two Dimensional Numerical Groundwater Flow Modelling Of the Megech River Catchment,Ethiopia Amare Getaneh This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-4549637/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Catchment is found in the Amhara Regional State, North Gondar Administrative Zone, Gondar town and surrounding Keble River catchment. Its total area coverage is 785 km2 , and the main lithologic units of lacustrine deposits are the Middle Basalt (Aiba) and the Upper basalt (Alajie). Numerical groundwater flow modeling of the Megech River catchment, Tana Sub Basin, is conducted with the objective of simulating the groundwater flow system of the area and evaluating the response of the hydrogeological system under different stresses so that the resulting consequences for the system can be estimated. The calibrated statistics of the model area showed a mean error (ME) of 4.8, absolute mean error (AME) of 4.9, and root mean square error (RMSE) of 6.8, which are indicators of good calibration. The sensitive parameters of the model were identified during the calibration process. Therefore, the RMSE is more sensitive to hydraulic conductivity and recharge than to river conductance. The simulated water budget under steady -state conditions in the Megech River catchment was analysed. The simulated inflow of the model is 1.0703551E+06 m3/day, which is equal to the simulated outflow of 1.0703559E+06 m3/day, with a difference of -7.9617882E-01(-0.79617882) m3/day. The total withdrawal of groundwater from the Megech catchment in the well is 1.78853E+04 m3/day. A scenario analysis was conducted for decreasing recharge and increasing withdrawal rates. Geology Calibration Water budget Simulation Scenario Steady state Figures Figure 1 Figure 2 Figure 3 Figure 4 Figure 5 Figure 6 Figure 7 Figure 8 Figure 9 Figure 10 Figure 11 Figure 12 Figure 13 Figure 14 Figure 15 Figure 16 Figure 17 Figure 18 Figure 19 Introduction Groundwater is an invisible resource, and both the dynamics of the resource base and the services it produces are not well known. It is a poorly understood resource, but is critical to a wide variety of social, economic and environmental services. Groundwater development using a number of boreholes, shallow wells and hand dug wells has been increasing from time to time in the Megech area to satisfy the demand for water for domestic water supply and industry purposes. In groundwater flow modeling, steady -state and two -dimensional modeling will be performed to better understand groundwater flow systems and predict the impact of increased groundwater withdrawal and climate change on groundwater and surface waters (Ayenew, Demlie and Wohnlich, 2008 ). The use of groundwater models is prevalent in the field of hydrogeology. Groundwater flow models have been applied to investigate a wide variety of hydrogeological conditions. Groundwater flow models are used to calculate the direction of groundwater movement through subsurface aquifers. MODFLOW is widely used to predict groundwater flow or head fluctuations (Yang, Lun and Fang, 2011 ). MODFLOW allows for the specification of flows associated with wells, areal groundwater recharge, rivers, and other groundwater sources/sinks. When properly conceptualized and constructed, the MODFLOW model can simulate groundwater flow quickly, with good convergence and an accurate solution for most complex groundwater flow systems (Gao, 2011 ). In groundwater flow modeling, boundary conditions influence the extent of the flow domain to be analysed or simulated. The extent of the flow domain is initially determined by the extent of the area of concern. Moreover, it should be noted that the correct conceptualization of boundaries is important for selecting an appropriate mathematical representation in the model so that the effect of the boundary on flow can be correctly understood (Ayehu, 2010 ). Once the numerical groundwater flow model has been set- up and calibrated, various groundwater impact scenario schemes for the near future will be simulated to understand the aquifer behaviour, i.e., the variations in the groundwater levels in the long term. In particular, to possibly restore the positive conditions of the river catchment water balance and to improve the conditions of its depletion, groundwater management scenarios are numerically investigated (Al-Dhuhli, Schmitz and Lennartz, 2013). The construction of a groundwater model requires the use of a tremendous amount of field data to modify the model. The difficulties in model calibration are caused by the lack of field information, measurement errors, natural environmental variables and all the factors affecting the uncertainty of the field data, which in turn This causes parameter uncertainty and inaccuracy in the modeling predictions. Under some circumstances, the net change only depends on a few parameters. If we can establish a mathematical model to simulate the net change directly, we can reduce the need for field data and the negative effects of the uncertain factors found in the model to increase the efficiency and accuracy of the modeling process (Xiu-yuan and Wei-shen, 2009). Increasing population size and the number of industries in the Megech catchment will lead to greater groundwater stress in the future. Even if a well field serves as a source water supply for domestic and industrial purposes, no groundwater modeling or detailed hydrogeological studies have taken place to manage this resource. This intensive groundwater use prior to detailed hydrogeological system analysis and recharge investigations exposes the groundwater resources and surface water of the catchment to risk, and ultimately, a problem that threatens the water supply becomes inevitable. In this catchment, people receive their water from boreholes, shallow wells, hand dug wells and springs. However, these wells contribute approximately a minimum amount of water to the community and do not cover the demand of the population. However, detailed studies on the groundwater potential of the catchment are lacking. Therefore, this research is designed to solve these problems. This study will help to better understand aquifer and groundwater flow systems, and evaluate the impact of proposed groundwater development and management alternative scenarios, and anticipated changes in increasing groundwater withdrawal. Materials and methods To accomplish these objectives, the following materials and equipment were used: a 1:50,000 scale topographical map, land satellite images, geological and hydrogeological maps, various computer software (MODFLOW 2000, ArcGIS 10.2, Global Mapper 12, and Surfer 8, Cropwat), a compass, a deep meter and a current meter. The study area is located in the North Gondar Zone of the Amhara region. Gondar town, which is found almost exclusively at the centre of the study area, is located approximately 750 km from Addis Ababa. The area covers a total surface area of 785 km2 (Figure 1). Geographically, it lies between UTM coordinates of 120 29’07”-12045’00”N latitudes and 37022’48”-37037’18”E longitudes. The main roads that connect Addis Ababa city extend from Gondar town and connect to Tikildengay and Rasdashen. Since the area is highly ragged and mountainous, most of the area is not accessible to vehicles, especially the northern and northeastern regions of the catchment. The morphology of the study area is the direct manifestation of tectonic activity and erosion. The general inclination of the slope decreases in the flow direction. The northern, northeastern and northwestern parts of the catchment are characterized by rugged topography with a chain of ridges bordering sub-catchments. Within the area, the southern part is characterized by a gently sloping surface, around the lake shore. The northern and eastern parts of the catchment have very rugged topography and steep slopes. There is a large elevation difference within the watershed. The elevation ranged from 1789 m (at the southern tip of the study area, Lake Tana) to 2965 m (north extreme of the catchment). The hill slopes of the surrounding areas are farmlands, and permanent plants and grasslands are sparse. Although much has been discussed about environmentally friendly land practices for more than two decades, terracing and other forms of land use practices that can protect the hill slopes of Gondar area from degradation and erosion have not been implemented. As a result, the hill slopes are exposed to erosion, and rain -induced surface runoff washes away the soil from steep ground. As a result, the flood-water of the rivers carries high silt loads during the rainy season, and the Angereb Dam can be silted. The plain drained by the Megech River forms a wide flood plain and water logged area as it approaches its delta. The rugged geomorphology, drainage patterns and gradients of the river valleys and geology of the surrounding areas are major factors that control the groundwater recharge of the aquifers in the region. The drainage pattern of the study area is dendritic. The Megech River runs in the S direction, and there is a structural control that is responsible for the present drainage pattern of the area. The Megch River catchment of the Lake Tana Sub basin comprises numerous small rivers, such as Dimaza, Shinta, Keha, Angereb, Gilgel Megech, Wizaba and other streams, and enters Tana Lake. All streams that drain the area originate from the surrounding highlands. Angereb, Keha, Shinta and Demaza are river valleys that drain Gondar and its surroundings. The rivers emerge from steep and V -shaped valleys of the mountain range as they approach the town proper and form wide and relatively gentle slopes in the study area. The Angreb valley forms the eastern limit of the town and joins Keha just south of Gondar. The Shinta and Demaza Rivers join east of Azezo, and they all drain into the Megech River north of the Megech River Bridge on the road to Bahir Dar. According to the general classification of the climatic zones of the Lake Tana basin (Mamo, 2015) based on elevation and precipitation, the Megech River catchment can be categorized into two broad seasons, the Shrub-Savongah (Subtropical) and Afro- Mountain (Temperate) zones. Geology of the area CONCEPTUAL MODEL DEVELOPMENT The nature of the conceptual model determines the dimensions of the numerical model and the design of the model. The development of a conceptual model is the most important stage in groundwater flow modelling because it simplifies field problems and organizes the field; as a result, the system can be readily analysed. Hydrologic information on precipitation, and evaporation, as well as head data information, is used in this analysis. Water level measurements are used to estimate the general direction of groundwater flow, the locations of recharge and discharge areas, and the connections between aquifers and surface water systems (Anderson and Woessner, 1992). Selecting the appropriate conceptual model for a given problem is one of the most important steps in the modelling process. According to (Bear, Beljin & Ross, 1992), the selection of an appropriate conceptual model and the degree of simplification in any particular case depend on: the objectives of the management problem;, the available resources, and the available field data. System Boundary Conceptualization In the Megech River catchment of the Lake Tana basin, the system boundary was carefully delineated based on the DEM data and field data. The northern, eastern and western boundaries of the catchment of the model coincide with the surface water divide line of the study area, which is considered a no -flow boundary. Notably, the groundwater divide is not a boundary in nature, but as groundwater on either side of the divide flows away from the divide and not across it, the divide itself acts as a no -flow boundary. The North, Northwest and North-east model boundaries of the catchment coincide with the Tekeze basin divide, the Eastern boundary coincides with the Gemero River catchment, the western boundary coincides with the Dirma River catchment, and the South boundary coincides with Lake Tana. The model also considers a specified head boundary, which is simulated by setting the head at the relevant boundary nodes equal to known values. For lakes, the boundary is described by constant head conditions, i.e., Tana Lake. Hydrostratigraphic units and aquifer characterization Hydro stratigraphic units for the conceptual model are defined from geologic information combined with information on hydrogeological properties. The different volcanic rocks and unconsolidated sediments have been classified into different hydrothermal units based on their field hydraulic properties, borehole and spring yields and pumping test data (transmissivity). Furthermore, topographic setting and recharge conditions have been considered to evaluate the productivity of hydrostratigraphic units. In this study, the aquifer thickness lies within the range of 150 m to 360 m in most parts of the catchment except along the boundaries where ridges with high elevations are found. The lithology is dominantly highly weathered and fractured tertiary basalt in elevated areas and alluvial sediments in low lands around the lake. According to Mamo, 2015. Hydrostratigraphic units have been grouped based on whether the groundwater flow is in porous or fracture -dominated media, such as intergranular and fracture aquifer categories and aquitards. However, in the Megech River catchment, the area is dominated by intergranular and fractured aquifers. Intergranular aquifer: groundwater is stored in and flows through the pores of unconsolidated sediments.Lacustrine sediments are categorized as belonging to this aquifer group. Fracture aquifer: groundwater is stored in and flowflows through the weathered and fractured parts of volcanic rocks and through primary flow features such as vesicles and breccia. Tertiary volcanic rocks are classified as belonging to this aquifer group. These volcanic rocks formed stratified multi layered aquifer systems, which are confined at depth by massive layers and/or paleosols. Each intergranular and fracture aquifer is ranked based on its productivity using the following criteria (Table 1). Table 1. Aquifer classification criteria (after Geoffery and Gall,1991:in Mamo, 2015). Aquifer productivity Mean Transmissivity (m2/day) mean yield(l/s) Very high >500 >25 High 100-500 5-25 Moderate 50-100 2-5 Low 10-50 0.5-2 Very low 1-10 0.05-0.5 Aquitard <1 <0.05 Extensive aquifer: an area greater than 100 km2. The transmissivity is deduced using the following empirical equation: T=1.22×SC …………………………………………………………..eq4 where T is the transmissivity and SC is the specific capacity. The groundwater flow in the Megech River catchment of the Lake Tana basin aquifer system has been simulated using a modular two -dimensional finite difference groundwater flow model of the U.S. When the groundwater flow does not vary over time, δh/δt, = 0 indicates that the system is in a steady or permanent state. To model the study area, the governing equation of the Megech River catchment aquifer system was adjusted according to the prevailing field conditions. Since the conceptualized model is a two -dimensional steady state in a single layer, the equation can be simplified to the following equation. W is a general sink/source term that is defined to be intrinsically positive to represent recharge and negative for withdrawals of groundwater. Model design The top layer is the top elevation of the aquifer under consideration. The top layer elevation was considered to be the elevation of the topography. The nodal values of the ground surface elevation were interpolated from the DEM data. The interpolation was performed at a resolution of 500 m × 500 m and then loaded into the MODFLOW top elevation array from the interpolated DEM data with 30×30 m resolution, but it was sliced by the model area cell size, and then exported in surfer grid format and opened in MODFLOW software as a gridded file. The bottom layer is the bottom elevation of the aquifer layer being modeled. In this study, the aquifer thickness lies within the range of 150 m to 360 m in most parts of the catchment except along the boundaries where ridges with high elevations are found. Elevated zones were simulated by increasing the thicknesses of the cells to avoid drying the cells during the simulations. Hence, the bottom elevation was obtained by subtracting the aquifer thickness from the top elevation in the catchment. Initial and prescribed hydraulic head They must be higher than the elevation of the cell bottom and are necessary for the start of model calculations. In this model, the initial hydraulic heads were obtained by subtracting a constant number of 25 m from the top layer elevation throughout the model area, according to the topographic and interpolated water table elevations. Spatial discretization and grid layout The model grid is set based on the aquifer properties, size of the model area, and the availability of the hydraulic properties of the aquifer. The extents of the Megech River catchment from the North‒South and East-West are 56000 m and 35000 m, respectively. The model area is bounded by 315688 West and 1354879 South and 350907 East and 1410867 North, respectively. The model area is divided into a uniform rectangular grid system or a block-centered diagram. The model domain has 70 columns and 112 rows with 500 m×500 m grid spacing within 7840 total cells. The grid system is regular, and each cell has a homogenous property. The groundwater flow equation for recharge, hydraulic head and hydraulic conductivity are calculated at the center of the cell. Hydraulic conductivity (K) and spatial distribution of recharge The hydraulic conductivity of fractured rocks depends largely on the density of the fractures and the width of their apertures. These data were obtained through pump test analysis, and lithologic type determination and literature review. The initial hydraulic conductivity parameter is assigned with an overlay analysis of borehole conductivity results based on the aerial distribution of the geological map. The distribution is determined by averaging the conductivity values from the pump test data based on their lithology. The average groundwater recharge of the Tana basin has been estimated to be 284.7 mm/year based on the results of soil water balance and chloride mass balance methods (Mamo, 2015), which include the shallow recharge that feeds the streams and deep recharge to the regional groundwater flow beneath stream beds. Groundwater discharge The aquifer system not only receives an input of a recharge but also releases its resources out of the system. The major removal of groundwater from the river catchment aquifer system possibly occurred through the abstraction of water wells (16132 m3/day), springs (16.6 l/s), base flow to surface water bodies (296794 m3/day) and evapotranspiration from marsh land (1634521 m3/day). Calibrated aquifer and sensitivity analysis The model calibration accounts for the matching of the 19 observation points with the simulated head with a permissible residual head of ±10 m. The criteriacriterion set is almost 75% of the difference between the maximum and minimum measured water level heads in the study area, which is approximately 5 m. There is a tolerable difference with respect to the gradient, the objective of which is to understand the groundwater flow pattern and the diversity of the hydraulic nature of the volcanic aquifer. The model was assumed to be calibrated when the fit between the observed and calibrated heads met these criteria, and the calibration was evaluated based on the final spatial distribution of the difference. Model sensitivity analysis Model sensitivity was determined for variations in hydraulic conductivity, recharge and riverbed conductance. The results of the sensitivity analysis for this study were evaluated by calculating the sum of the square deviation between the measured and simulated heads in the modeled area for a decrease or increase in percent, from the calibrated value, of that parameter. The greater the deviation of the water level from its calibrated model value is, the greater the sensitivity of the model to an increase (positive percent) or decrease (negative percent) in that parameter. To test the sensitivity of the above parameters, the calibrated values of each parameter were increased by 125%, 150% and 175%, decreased by 25%, 50% and 75%, respectively, and then simulated to determine the resulting heads. In the model, the simulated water levels were sensitive to both decreases and increases in the recharge, river conductance and hydraulic conductivity values. In this case, the results of the sensitivity analysis show that recharge and hydraulic conductivity, will have more significant effects on the model simulation results. Model results and analysis Table 1. Sensitivity analysis by increasing and decreasing the model parameters percentage River conductance Hydraulic conductivity Recharge Decreased by: 0.25(75%) 17.4 198.68 58.80 0.5(50%) 5.92 66.30 55.5 0.75(25%) 1.97 22.24 18.59 1(100%) 0 0 0 1.25(25%) 1.18 13.58 18.24 Increased by: 1.5(50%) 1.97 22.8 36.27 1.75(75%) 2.54 29.56 54.28 The simulated inflow and outflow of groundwater in the whole model domain are 1070355 m3/day and 1070356 m3/day, respectively, and the difference is -0.799038 m3/day, with a discrepancy of 0%. The head distribution shows that the groundwater surface follows the topographic contour and coincides with the surface water flow. The groundwater in the study area catchment groundwater flows from the recharge area to the discharge area following this morphology. The MODFLOW calculates the hydraulic head distribution of the groundwater flow surface. Histogram of the calibrated results This helps to clearly observe the distribution of the absolute value of the difference between the observed and simulated hydraulic heads and the frequency occurrence. The absolute head difference above 10 m can be attributed to uncertainties in the estimated stresses and hydraulic parameters. Scatter plot showing the error distribution Plots are useful for assessing the quality of calibration simulations. The scatter plots where the observed values are plotted versus the values computed by the model. In an ideal calibration, the points will fall on a straight line with a 45 degree slope, which means that the computed value equals the measured value. In this model, it was difficult to match the theoretical line with the plot, but it followed a straight line of ±10 mts. The narrower the area of scatter around this line is, the better the match. Scenario Analysis The calibrated flow model helps as a tool to evaluate the response of the aquifer system to different stresses by different scenario analysis results in numerical groundwater flow modelling. This paper has attempted to simulate two scenarios with increasing extraction of groundwater and decreasing recharge over an aquifer system. This part of model analysis has the ability to predict the response of the system to changes in future events. The model is simulated for increasing groundwater pumping levels of 150%, 200%, and 250%; and decreasing recharge levels of 25%, 50%, and 75%. Effects of increased groundwater withdrawals Gondar town is expanding and flourishing in different parts of the Megech River catchment; hence, it is reasonable to assume that the water demand will increase due to Gondar and Azezo town, the Dashen Beer industry, and the expansion and flourishing of different parts of the Megech River catchment. To meet this increasing demand, existing boreholes should be pumped at greater rates, or new boreholes with higher capacity should be drilled in the future. This can be seen from the large number of wells drilled since recently in the catchment. In the first scenario, 24 increased well withdrawal rates were simulated by considering all active wells in the catchment. The current withdrawal rate estimated under steady state simulation was 16132 m3/day. Table 25. Minimum and maximum draws during scenario analysis An increase in well withdrawal of 150% resulted in reductions in evapotranspiration, outflow to constant head, river base flow (outflow) and outflow to the reservoir of -0.39%, -1.97%, -0.87%,- and 0.28%, respectively, but the river leakage increased by 0.16%. Increasing the well discharge by 200% resulted in the reductions in the river base flow (outflow) of -1.74%, an increase in evapotranspiration of -0.77%, an increase in the outflow to constant head of -3.94%, and an increase in the outflow to the reservoir of -0.55%. The leakage from the river to the aquifer increased by 0.325%. Similarly, increasing withdrawal by 250% resulted in a reduction of groundwater base flow to the river of -2.62%, evapotranspiration by-1.21%, outflow to constant head by- 5.85% and outflow to the reservoir by- 0.825%, but the aquifer gains from river leakage by 0.487%. In general, the above mentioned scenarios show that river leakage to the aquifer increases and the system gains from Lake Tana, while the marsh lands decrease and the groundwater contribution to Tana Lake and the streams decreases, which can cause drying of streams and wetlands and diminishing of the lake. Table 26. Calibrated and increasing groundwater withdrawal water budget (m3/day). Water budget component Calibrated Scenario 150% Scenario200% Scenario 250% In flow Out flow In flow Out flow In flow Out flow In flow Out flow Constant head 0 23.17 0 22.72 0 22.26 0 21.82 ET 0 17930.76 0 17861.66 0 17792.57 0 17713.64 River Leakage 55045.12 991965.19 55134.62 983299.3 55224.1 974632.9 55313.52 965975.06 Reservoir leakage 0 42551.5 0 42431.76 0 42316 0 42200.24 Table 27.The system response as a percentage for increasing withdrawal. Effects of decreasing recharge In this scenario, the simulation was performed for decreasing recharge to aquifers that may result from environmental changes, the expansion of agriculture, deforestation and town expansion. A simulation was performed for decreasing recharge to obtain the maximum and minimum declines in the groundwater level in the model area from the observation points. Decreases in the current recharge of 25%, 50% and 75% of the calibrated model were tested. A decrease in recharge of 25% resulted in minimum and maximum decreases in the water level of 3.934 m and 20.68 m, respectively. When the recharge decreases by 50%, the minimum and maximum decreases in the water level are 6.22 m and 39.411 m, respectively, and when the recharge decreases by 75% in the model area, the minimum and maximum decreases in the water level were 12.46 m and 61.80 m, respectively. The average decreases in the groundwater level or head in the model area were 51.3 m, 29.67 and 17.58 for scenarios one (75%), two (50%) and three (25%), respectively. A minimum decrease in the water level was observed on the north and north-east sides of Gondar city, while a maximum decrease in the water level was observed south, south-west and south-east of the study area in the plain area. Table 28 . The minimum and maximum drawdowns observed from observation points during recharge decrease Conclusion The model calibration accounts for the matching of the 19 observation points of the simulated head with a permissible residual head of ± 10 m. The model was calibrated with a mean error of 4.85, an absolute mean error of 4.921 m and a square root mean error of 6.83 m. The model was more sensitive in the increasing order of riverbed conductance, horizontal hydraulic conductivity and recharge. The numerical groundwater flow model is empowered with the computation of the water budget. The simulated outflow of the model is 1070356 m3/day, which is nearly equal to the simulated inflow, with a difference of 0.79618 m3/day. The base flow discharge of the simulated model is 991965 m3/day, which accounts for 91.86% of the outflow but still has a lower volume than the estimated flow. The river recharges the aquifer by 55045.1 m3/day, which accounts for 5.15% of the simulated inflow. The river and aquifer interaction implies a large discharge of groundwater to the dominantly gaining streams. The groundwater of the catchment is highly depleted with the discharge of the groundwater to the stream. Lake Tana is conceptualized by the CHB with a simulated 23.177 m3/day discharge of groundwater to the lake. The model is simulated for increasing groundwater pumping of 150%, 200%, and 250% and decreasing recharge of 25%, 50% and 75%. The model response has been recognized for the average water level, groundwater discharge to the river and CHB. The average water level of the system shows a drawdown starting from 0.88 m with a 150% increase in pumping to 2.8 m with a 250% increase in groundwater withdrawal. The average water level of the system shows a drawdown starting from 17.5 m with a 25% increase in pumping to 51.3 m with a 75% increase in groundwater withdrawal. The steady state simulated recharge decreased by 25%, and the simulation results showed an average head decrease of 17.5 m over the whole area, with the greatest decrease of 20.68 m in wells to the north and a minimum decrease of approximately 3.934 m in wells to the south. A 50% decrease in recharge simulates a decrease in the water level, with decreases of 39.4 m, 6.2 m, and 29.6 m in the maximum, minimum and average water levels, respectively. The values are 61.8 m, 12.4 m, The 51.3 m maximum, minimum, and mean water level decrease under the 75% recharge decreasing scenario. However, the groundwater discharge to the river decreased by 0.874% with a 150% increase in pumping and decreased by 2.62% with a 250% increase in pumping. The increase in groundwater withdrawal will also have an impact on the lake, which is represented by the CHB in the model. The groundwater discharge will decrease from 1.97% with a 150% increase to 5.8% with a 250% increase in groundwater withdrawal from pumping. The increase in groundwater withdrawal will have an impact of the reservoir in the model. The groundwater discharge will decrease from 0.28% with a 150% increase to 0.82% with a 250% increase in groundwater withdrawal from pumping. The change in the discharge of groundwater by evapotranspiration decreased by 0.39% with a 150% increase in pumping and decreased by 1.21% with a 250% increase in pumping. The current withdrawal rate estimated under steady -state simulation was 17885. 27 m3/day. To study the response of the system in this scenario, steady-state withdrawal rates were increased by 150%, 200% and 250%, which are equivalent to withdrawing 26827.9, 35770.5, and 44713. 1 m3/day, respectively, over the whole catchment. 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Integrated Hydrological and Hydrogeological System Analysis of the Lake Tana Basin, Northwestern Ethiopia (Doctoral dissertation, Addis Ababa UniversityAddis Ababa, Ethiopia). Gao, H., 2011. Groundwater modeling for flow systems with complex geological and hydrogeological conditions. Procedia Earth and Planetary Science, 3, pp.23-28. Xiu-yuan, M., Shu-guang, L. and Wei-shen, Z., 2009. A new method in groundwater flow modeling. Journal of Hydrodynamics, 21(2), pp.245-254. Yang, Q., Lun, W. and Fang, Y., 2011. Numerical modeling of three dimension groundwater flow in Tongliao (China). Procedia Eng, 24, pp.638-642. Additional Declarations The authors declare no competing interests. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-4549637","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":312032776,"identity":"90dafaed-6de8-4e4f-aab6-1d148e918b8e","order_by":0,"name":"Amare Getaneh","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA0klEQVRIiWNgGAWjYBCDBH4wWUC8BoYEyQYQbUCKFoMDIAYxWvinHX784uMPuzzj86sTPzwwYJDnFzuAX4vE7TQzyxkJycVmN95ulgA6zHDm7AQC1txOMDPmSTiQuO3G2Q0gLQkGtwlokb+d/s34D1DL5hlnN/8gSovB7RzjxwxALRv4e7cRZ4vh7Zwyxp605MQZN3i3WSQYSBD2i9zt9M0fftjYJfb3n91880eFjTy/NAEtQMAmAaYkwColCCoHAeYPYIr/AFGqR8EoGAWjYAQCAJgVSnrylRNNAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","orcid":"","institution":"Debre-Markos University","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Amare","middleName":"","lastName":"Getaneh","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2024-06-08 08:30:17","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":{"humanSubjects":true,"vertebrateSubjects":false,"conflictsOfInterestStatement":false,"humanSubjectEthicalGuidelines":true,"humanSubjectConsent":true,"humanSubjectClinicalTrial":false,"humanSubjectCaseReport":false,"vertebrateSubjectEthicalGuidelines":false},"doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-4549637/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-4549637/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":58133063,"identity":"bfb14c29-7376-4152-8273-4d15f45f5330","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-06-11 14:57:31","extension":"png","order_by":1,"title":"Figure 1","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":197049,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eMap of the study area\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"1.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4549637/v1/4af1faeecd98b7b7a73ce740.png"},{"id":58132311,"identity":"406b131f-d919-4bff-9814-abe95de1cfc0","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-06-11 14:49:31","extension":"png","order_by":2,"title":"Figure 2","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":92511,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eGeological map of the study area\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"2.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4549637/v1/207ba7197ec3c9f2350068b5.png"},{"id":58133514,"identity":"66041697-5a16-48bc-8969-c501bf59101f","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-06-11 15:05:31","extension":"png","order_by":3,"title":"Figure 3","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":57766,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eHorizontal geological cross- section of the study area\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"3.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4549637/v1/cb81f5f52011db8fb0367668.png"},{"id":58132314,"identity":"4f6c9421-33f1-4d15-bd8b-63e38bd26a22","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-06-11 14:49:31","extension":"png","order_by":4,"title":"Figure 4","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":46565,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eVertical geological cross- section of the study area\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"4.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4549637/v1/4bd0a2da71891e41d06666b4.png"},{"id":58133066,"identity":"a4a63f7e-1c9d-4180-8710-60b6322d684b","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-06-11 14:57:31","extension":"png","order_by":5,"title":"Figure 5","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":184150,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eHydrogeological map of the study area\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"5.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4549637/v1/c9d840e63125314f01b60033.png"},{"id":58133513,"identity":"5f364c85-e6fb-4f8e-b9b0-604eb97e3a37","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-06-11 15:05:31","extension":"png","order_by":6,"title":"Figure 6","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":46153,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eFigure7. Conceptualize groundwater flow from NE‒SW (A-AA)\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"7.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4549637/v1/1300d477ded1bb2324684bb5.png"},{"id":58133515,"identity":"c55b8d71-33a4-41f0-b8d5-4bdc4a696df4","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-06-11 15:05:31","extension":"png","order_by":7,"title":"Figure 7","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":120261,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eFigure 8. Discretization of the model area\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"8.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4549637/v1/88ddf32278385e94e4c1cbba.png"},{"id":58133067,"identity":"0fa4cba4-23af-4bc9-8eec-a59cca3d237d","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-06-11 14:57:31","extension":"png","order_by":8,"title":"Figure 8","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":140414,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eFigure 9. Recharge distribution map of the study area.\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"9.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4549637/v1/7bac95846dc246f1b4802c7c.png"},{"id":58134166,"identity":"c8505992-2175-4fcc-b383-505a319fa1a7","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-06-11 15:13:31","extension":"png","order_by":9,"title":"Figure 9","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":143432,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eFigure 10. Hydraulic conductivity map of the study area.\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"10.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4549637/v1/25aa0436c6215d4ab5d25ef6.png"},{"id":58132317,"identity":"37215c7e-6743-4dc9-b70a-e352d8663dc0","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-06-11 14:49:31","extension":"png","order_by":10,"title":"Figure 10","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":101249,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eFig. 11 - Hydraulic conductivity map.\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"11.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4549637/v1/2c40bf3f6f6540efa93d84ae.png"},{"id":58132319,"identity":"8950e4a5-f078-409c-8f3c-10645f13af25","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-06-11 14:49:31","extension":"png","order_by":11,"title":"Figure 11","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":112139,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eFigure 12. Calibrated recharge rate of the Megech River catchment.\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"12.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4549637/v1/1b83851ccbe55938299bfd68.png"},{"id":58132322,"identity":"7dbbd8ee-8e54-4b20-ac79-9b034c1b555e","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-06-11 14:49:31","extension":"png","order_by":12,"title":"Figure 12","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":103397,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eFigure 13. Locations of observation points used for head calibration.\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"13.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4549637/v1/498c28f25f81438347f4e8b9.png"},{"id":58132329,"identity":"a0b0480a-57b4-45e9-9173-e84f762a3a1d","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-06-11 14:49:31","extension":"png","order_by":13,"title":"Figure 13","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":48421,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eFigure 14. Sensitivity analysis of the model parameters\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"14.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4549637/v1/90b40ecdd212cfded72ba90f.png"},{"id":58132323,"identity":"83ef3d68-7aee-4257-b3a1-1903f177e92e","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-06-11 14:49:31","extension":"png","order_by":14,"title":"Figure 14","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":120234,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eFigure 15. Groundwater level contour and flow direction of the model area\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"15.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4549637/v1/ae2abb0460223ddb37659d8c.png"},{"id":58132325,"identity":"d6d64da8-6bdd-4f27-9e67-5f0b5c4c1f6a","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-06-11 14:49:31","extension":"png","order_by":15,"title":"Figure 15","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":30912,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eFigure 46. The residual head for showing the error distribution\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"46.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4549637/v1/f247c4f98dfe8109a49a7585.png"},{"id":58132327,"identity":"e38cdada-4ad2-47f5-956d-ceff87106117","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-06-11 14:49:31","extension":"png","order_by":16,"title":"Figure 16","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":14773,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eFigure 44. Scatter Plot Head Distribution of the Calibrated Model.\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"44.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4549637/v1/eb73dc8636b3d599bb04132f.png"},{"id":58132328,"identity":"ba80cd60-0f7d-4f31-8f18-de554fb91875","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-06-11 14:49:31","extension":"png","order_by":17,"title":"Figure 17","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":203072,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eFigure 45. Simulated head vs. observed head distribution\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"45.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4549637/v1/086bfebb185ff3b144d9298f.png"},{"id":58132330,"identity":"0ae4ea88-eeb0-49f4-9095-1f8e5c857d12","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-06-11 14:49:32","extension":"png","order_by":18,"title":"Figure 18","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":221336,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eFigure 50. Head change map in three scenarios by increasing well abstraction\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"50.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4549637/v1/637d9f3e00660b35220f95e3.png"},{"id":58132326,"identity":"d403f783-59b7-4f56-93c4-10baf8e5b9df","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-06-11 14:49:31","extension":"png","order_by":19,"title":"Figure 19","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":260897,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eFigure 52. Head change map under the three scenarios with decreasing recharge\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"52.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4549637/v1/aa3f5bcdb5697ce97322bc28.png"},{"id":58134167,"identity":"b33979e0-140d-49c0-bd2a-f0a9c02d71c2","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-06-11 15:13:37","extension":"pdf","order_by":0,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":2516770,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"manuscript.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4549637/v1/27780c5c-88c0-4db5-8562-cf62633bcc58.pdf"},{"id":58133062,"identity":"d8465b75-c82c-42da-9549-b2aa391eb519","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-06-11 14:57:31","extension":"docx","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":41303,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eappendices\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"suplementaryfiles.docx","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4549637/v1/93b89025d8d5bcfa8c599057.docx"}],"financialInterests":"The authors declare no competing interests.","formattedTitle":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eTwo Dimensional Numerical Groundwater Flow Modelling Of the Megech River Catchment,Ethiopia\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","fulltext":[{"header":"Introduction","content":"\u003cp\u003eGroundwater is an invisible resource, and both the dynamics of the resource base and the services it produces are not well known. It is a poorly understood resource, but is critical to a wide variety of social, economic and environmental services.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eGroundwater development using a number of boreholes, shallow wells and hand dug wells has been increasing from time to time in the Megech area to satisfy the demand for water for domestic water supply and industry purposes.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIn groundwater flow modeling, steady -state and two -dimensional modeling will be performed to better understand groundwater flow systems and predict the impact of increased groundwater withdrawal and climate change on groundwater and surface waters (Ayenew, Demlie and Wohnlich, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR4\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2008\u003c/span\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe use of groundwater models is prevalent in the field of hydrogeology. Groundwater flow models have been applied to investigate a wide variety of hydrogeological conditions. Groundwater flow models are used to calculate the direction of groundwater movement through subsurface aquifers. MODFLOW is widely used to predict groundwater flow or head fluctuations (Yang, Lun and Fang, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR10\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2011\u003c/span\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eMODFLOW allows for the specification of flows associated with wells, areal groundwater recharge, rivers, and other groundwater sources/sinks. When properly conceptualized and constructed, the MODFLOW model can simulate groundwater flow quickly, with good convergence and an accurate solution for most complex groundwater flow systems (Gao, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR7\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2011\u003c/span\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIn groundwater flow modeling, boundary conditions influence the extent of the flow domain to be analysed or simulated. The extent of the flow domain is initially determined by the extent of the area of concern. Moreover, it should be noted that the correct conceptualization of boundaries is important for selecting an appropriate mathematical representation in the model so that the effect of the boundary on flow can be correctly understood (Ayehu, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR3\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2010\u003c/span\u003e). Once the numerical groundwater flow model has been set- up and calibrated, various groundwater impact scenario schemes for the near future will be simulated to understand the aquifer behaviour, i.e., the variations in the groundwater levels in the long term. In particular, to possibly restore the positive conditions of the river catchment water balance and to improve the conditions of its depletion, groundwater management scenarios are numerically investigated (Al-Dhuhli, Schmitz and Lennartz, 2013).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe construction of a groundwater model requires the use of a tremendous amount of field data to modify the model. The difficulties in model calibration are caused by the lack of field information, measurement errors, natural environmental variables and all the factors affecting the uncertainty of the field data, which in turn\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThis causes parameter uncertainty and inaccuracy in the modeling predictions. Under some circumstances, the net change only depends on a few parameters. If we can establish a mathematical model to simulate the net change directly, we can reduce the need for field data and the negative effects of the uncertain factors found in the model to increase the efficiency and accuracy of the modeling process (Xiu-yuan and Wei-shen, 2009).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIncreasing population size and the number of industries in the Megech catchment will lead to greater groundwater stress in the future. Even if a well field serves as a source water supply for domestic and industrial purposes, no groundwater modeling or detailed hydrogeological studies have taken place to manage this resource. This intensive groundwater use prior to detailed hydrogeological system analysis and recharge investigations exposes the groundwater resources and surface water of the catchment to risk, and ultimately, a problem that threatens the water supply becomes inevitable.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIn this catchment, people receive their water from boreholes, shallow wells, hand dug wells and springs. However, these wells contribute approximately a minimum amount of water to the community and do not cover the demand of the population. However, detailed studies on the groundwater potential of the catchment are lacking. Therefore, this research is designed to solve these problems. This study will help to better understand aquifer and groundwater flow systems, and evaluate the impact of proposed groundwater development and management alternative scenarios, and anticipated changes in increasing groundwater withdrawal.\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"Materials and methods","content":"\u003cp\u003eTo accomplish these objectives, the following materials and equipment were used: a 1:50,000 scale topographical map, land satellite images, geological and hydrogeological maps, various computer software (MODFLOW 2000, ArcGIS 10.2, Global Mapper 12, and Surfer 8, Cropwat), a compass, a deep meter and a current meter.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe study area is located in the North Gondar Zone of the Amhara region. Gondar town, which is found almost exclusively at the centre of the study area, is located approximately 750 km from Addis Ababa. The area covers a total surface area of 785 km2 (Figure 1). Geographically, it lies between UTM coordinates of 120 29\u0026rsquo;07\u0026rdquo;-12045\u0026rsquo;00\u0026rdquo;N latitudes and 37022\u0026rsquo;48\u0026rdquo;-37037\u0026rsquo;18\u0026rdquo;E longitudes. The main roads that connect Addis Ababa city extend from Gondar town and connect to Tikildengay and Rasdashen. Since the area is highly ragged and mountainous, most of the area is not accessible to vehicles, especially the northern and northeastern regions of the catchment.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe morphology of the study area is the direct manifestation of tectonic activity and erosion. The general inclination of the slope decreases in the flow direction. The northern, northeastern and northwestern parts of the catchment are characterized by rugged topography with a chain of ridges bordering sub-catchments. Within the area, the southern part is characterized by a gently sloping surface, around the lake shore. The northern and eastern parts of the catchment have very rugged topography and steep slopes. There is a large elevation difference within the watershed. The elevation ranged from 1789 m (at the southern tip of the study area, Lake Tana) to 2965 m (north extreme of the catchment).\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe hill slopes of the surrounding areas are farmlands, and permanent plants and grasslands are sparse. Although much has been discussed about environmentally friendly land practices for more than two decades, terracing and other forms of land use practices that can protect the hill slopes of Gondar area from degradation and erosion have not been implemented. As a result, the hill slopes are exposed to erosion, and rain -induced surface runoff washes away the soil from steep ground. As a result, the flood-water of the rivers carries high silt loads during the rainy season, and the Angereb Dam can be silted. The plain drained by the Megech River forms a wide flood plain and water logged area as it approaches its delta. The rugged geomorphology, drainage patterns and gradients of the river valleys and geology of the surrounding areas are major factors that control the groundwater recharge of the aquifers in the region.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe drainage pattern of the study area is dendritic. The Megech River runs in the S direction, and there is a structural control that is responsible for the present drainage pattern of the area. The Megch River catchment of the Lake Tana Sub basin comprises numerous small rivers, such as Dimaza, Shinta, Keha, Angereb, Gilgel Megech, Wizaba and other streams, and enters Tana Lake. All streams that drain the area originate from the surrounding highlands.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAngereb, Keha, Shinta and Demaza are river valleys that drain Gondar and its surroundings. The rivers emerge from steep and V -shaped valleys of the mountain range as they approach the town proper and form wide and relatively gentle slopes in the study area. The Angreb valley forms the eastern limit of the town and joins Keha just south of Gondar. The Shinta and Demaza Rivers join east of Azezo, and they all drain into the Megech River north of the Megech River Bridge on the road to Bahir Dar.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAccording to the general classification of the climatic zones of the Lake Tana basin (Mamo, 2015) based on elevation and precipitation, the Megech River catchment can be categorized into two broad seasons, the Shrub-Savongah (Subtropical) and Afro- Mountain (Temperate) zones.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003cstrong\u003eGeology of the area\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"CONCEPTUAL MODEL DEVELOPMENT","content":"\u003cp\u003eThe nature of the conceptual model determines the dimensions of the numerical model and the design of the model. The development of a conceptual model is the most important stage in groundwater flow modelling because it simplifies field problems and organizes the field; as a result, the system can be readily analysed. Hydrologic information on precipitation, and evaporation, as well as head data information, is used in this analysis. Water level measurements are used to estimate the general direction of groundwater flow, the locations of recharge and discharge areas, and the connections between \u0026nbsp;aquifers and surface water systems (Anderson and Woessner, 1992).\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eSelecting the appropriate conceptual model for a given problem is one of the most important steps in the modelling process. According to (Bear, Beljin \u0026amp; Ross, 1992), the selection of an appropriate conceptual model and the degree of simplification in any particular case depend on: the objectives of the management problem;, the available resources, and the available field data.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eSystem Boundary Conceptualization\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIn the Megech River catchment of the Lake Tana basin, the system boundary was carefully delineated based on the DEM data and field data. The northern, eastern and western boundaries of the catchment of the model coincide with the surface water divide line of the study area, which is considered a no -flow boundary. Notably, the groundwater divide is not a boundary in nature, but as groundwater on either side of the divide flows away from the divide and not across it, the divide itself acts as a no -flow boundary. The North, Northwest and North-east model boundaries of the catchment coincide with the Tekeze basin divide, the Eastern boundary coincides with the Gemero River catchment, the western boundary coincides with the Dirma River catchment, and the South boundary coincides with Lake Tana.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe model also considers a specified head boundary, which is simulated by setting the head at the relevant boundary nodes equal to known values. For lakes, the boundary is described by constant head conditions, i.e., Tana Lake.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eHydrostratigraphic units and aquifer characterization\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eHydro stratigraphic units for the conceptual model are defined from geologic information combined with information on hydrogeological properties. The different volcanic rocks and unconsolidated sediments have been classified into different hydrothermal units based on their field hydraulic properties, borehole and spring yields and pumping test data (transmissivity). Furthermore, topographic setting and recharge conditions have been considered to evaluate the productivity of hydrostratigraphic units.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIn this study, the aquifer thickness lies within the range of 150 m to 360 m in most parts of the catchment except along the boundaries where ridges with high elevations are found. The lithology is dominantly highly weathered and fractured tertiary basalt in elevated areas and alluvial sediments in low lands around the lake.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAccording to Mamo, 2015. Hydrostratigraphic units have been grouped based on whether the groundwater flow is in porous or fracture -dominated media, such as intergranular and fracture aquifer categories and aquitards. However, in the Megech River catchment, the area is dominated by intergranular and fractured aquifers. Intergranular aquifer: groundwater is stored in and flows through the pores of unconsolidated sediments.Lacustrine sediments are categorized as belonging to this aquifer group.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eFracture aquifer: groundwater is stored in and flowflows through the weathered and fractured parts of volcanic rocks and through primary flow features such as vesicles and breccia. Tertiary volcanic rocks are classified as belonging to this aquifer group. These volcanic rocks formed stratified multi layered aquifer systems, which are confined at depth by massive layers and/or paleosols. Each intergranular and fracture aquifer is ranked based on its productivity using the following criteria (Table 1).\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eTable\u0026nbsp;1.\u003cins cite=\"mailto:Curie\" datetime=\"2024-06-07T09:57\"\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/ins\u003eAquifer\u0026nbsp;classification\u0026nbsp;criteria\u0026nbsp;(after\u0026nbsp;Geoffery\u0026nbsp;and\u0026nbsp;Gall,1991:in\u0026nbsp;Mamo,\u0026nbsp;2015).\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ctable border=\"0\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\"\u003e\n \u003ctbody\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd width=\"28.432956381260098%\" valign=\"top\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eAquifer\u0026nbsp;productivity\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd width=\"42.48788368336026%\" valign=\"top\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eMean\u0026nbsp;Transmissivity\u0026nbsp;(m2/day)\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd width=\"29.079159935379643%\" valign=\"top\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003emean\u0026nbsp;yield(l/s)\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd width=\"28.432956381260098%\" valign=\"top\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eVery\u0026nbsp;high\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd width=\"42.48788368336026%\" valign=\"top\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026gt;500\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd width=\"29.079159935379643%\" valign=\"top\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026gt;25\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd width=\"28.432956381260098%\" valign=\"top\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eHigh\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd width=\"42.48788368336026%\" valign=\"top\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e100-500\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd width=\"29.079159935379643%\" valign=\"top\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e5-25\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd width=\"28.432956381260098%\" valign=\"top\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eModerate\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd width=\"42.48788368336026%\" valign=\"top\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e50-100\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd width=\"29.079159935379643%\" valign=\"top\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e2-5\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd width=\"28.432956381260098%\" valign=\"top\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eLow\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd width=\"42.48788368336026%\" valign=\"top\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e10-50\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd width=\"29.079159935379643%\" valign=\"top\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.5-2\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd width=\"28.432956381260098%\" valign=\"top\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eVery\u0026nbsp;low\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd width=\"42.48788368336026%\" valign=\"top\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e1-10\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd width=\"29.079159935379643%\" valign=\"top\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.05-0.5\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd width=\"28.432956381260098%\" valign=\"top\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eAquitard\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd width=\"42.48788368336026%\" valign=\"top\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026lt;1\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd width=\"29.079159935379643%\" valign=\"top\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026lt;0.05\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003c/tbody\u003e\n\u003c/table\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eExtensive aquifer: an area greater than 100 km2. The transmissivity is deduced using the following empirical equation:\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eT=1.22×SC \u0026nbsp; \u0026nbsp; …………………………………………………………..eq4\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003ewhere T is the transmissivity and SC is the specific capacity.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe groundwater flow in the Megech River catchment of the Lake Tana basin aquifer system has been simulated using a modular two -dimensional finite difference groundwater flow model of the U.S. When the groundwater flow does not vary over time, δh/δt, = 0 indicates that the system is in a steady or permanent state. To model the study area, the governing equation of the Megech River catchment aquifer system was adjusted according to the prevailing field conditions. Since the conceptualized model is a two -dimensional steady state in a single layer, the equation can be simplified to the following equation.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cimg 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\"\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eW is a general sink/source term that is defined to be intrinsically positive to represent recharge and negative for withdrawals of groundwater.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eModel design\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe top layer is the top elevation of the aquifer under consideration. The top layer elevation was considered to be the elevation of the topography. The nodal values of the ground surface elevation were interpolated from the DEM data. The interpolation was performed at a resolution of 500 m × 500 m and then loaded into the MODFLOW top elevation array from the interpolated DEM data with 30×30 m resolution, but it was sliced by the model area cell size, and then exported in surfer grid format and opened in MODFLOW software as a gridded file.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe bottom layer is the bottom elevation of the aquifer layer being modeled. In this study, the aquifer thickness lies within the range of 150 m to 360 m in most parts of the catchment except along the boundaries where ridges with high elevations are found. Elevated zones were simulated by increasing the thicknesses of the cells to avoid drying the cells during the simulations. Hence, the bottom elevation was obtained by subtracting the aquifer thickness from the top elevation in the catchment.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eInitial and prescribed hydraulic head\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThey must be higher than the elevation of the cell bottom and are necessary for the start of model calculations. In this model, the initial hydraulic heads were obtained by subtracting a constant number of 25 m from the top layer elevation throughout the model area, according to the topographic and interpolated water table elevations.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eSpatial discretization and grid layout\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe model grid is set based on the aquifer properties, size of the model area, and the availability of the hydraulic properties of the aquifer. The extents of the Megech River catchment from the North‒South and East-West are 56000 m and 35000 m, respectively. The model area is bounded by 315688 West and 1354879 South and 350907 East and 1410867 North, respectively. The model area is divided into a uniform rectangular grid system or a block-centered diagram. The model domain has 70 columns and 112 rows with 500 m×500 m grid spacing within 7840 total cells. The grid system is regular, and each cell has a homogenous property. The groundwater flow equation for recharge, hydraulic head and hydraulic conductivity are calculated at the center of the cell.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eHydraulic conductivity (K) and spatial distribution of recharge\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe hydraulic conductivity of fractured rocks depends largely on the density of the fractures and the width of their apertures. These data were obtained through pump test analysis, and lithologic type determination and literature review. The initial hydraulic conductivity parameter is assigned with an overlay analysis of borehole conductivity results based on the aerial distribution of the geological map. The distribution is determined by averaging the conductivity values from the pump test data based on their lithology. The average groundwater recharge of the Tana basin has been estimated to be 284.7 mm/year based on the results of soil water balance and chloride mass balance methods (Mamo, 2015), which include the shallow recharge that feeds the streams and deep recharge to the regional groundwater flow beneath stream beds.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eGroundwater discharge\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe aquifer system not only receives an input of a recharge but also releases its resources out of the system. The major removal of groundwater from the river catchment aquifer system possibly occurred through the abstraction of water wells (16132 m3/day), springs (16.6 l/s), base flow to surface water bodies (296794 m3/day) and evapotranspiration from marsh land (1634521 m3/day).\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eCalibrated aquifer and sensitivity analysis\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe model calibration accounts for the matching of the 19 observation points with the simulated head with a permissible residual head of ±10 m. The criteriacriterion set is almost 75% of the difference between the maximum and minimum measured water level heads in the study area, which is approximately 5 m. There is a tolerable difference with respect to the gradient, the objective of which is to understand the groundwater flow pattern and the diversity of the hydraulic nature of the volcanic aquifer. The model was assumed to be calibrated when the fit between the observed and calibrated heads met these criteria, and the calibration was evaluated based on the final spatial distribution of the difference.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eModel sensitivity analysis\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eModel sensitivity was determined for variations in hydraulic conductivity, recharge and riverbed conductance.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe results of the sensitivity analysis for this study were evaluated by calculating the sum of the square deviation between the measured and simulated heads in the modeled area for a decrease or increase in percent, from the calibrated value, of that parameter. The greater the deviation of the water level from its calibrated model value is, the greater the sensitivity of the model to an increase (positive percent) or decrease (negative percent) in that parameter. To test the sensitivity of the above parameters, the calibrated values of each parameter were increased by 125%, 150% and 175%, decreased by 25%, 50% and 75%, respectively, and then simulated to determine the resulting heads.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIn the model, the simulated water levels were sensitive to both decreases and increases in the recharge, river conductance and hydraulic conductivity values. In this case, the results of the sensitivity analysis show that recharge and hydraulic conductivity, will have more significant effects on the model simulation results.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eModel results and analysis\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eTable 1. Sensitivity analysis by increasing and decreasing the model parameters\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ctable border=\"0\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\"\u003e\n \u003ctbody\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd width=\"14.516129032258064%\" valign=\"top\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003epercentage\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd width=\"43.54838709677419%\" colspan=\"2\" valign=\"top\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eRiver\u0026nbsp;conductance\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd width=\"12.741935483870968%\" valign=\"top\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eHydraulic\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd width=\"12.258064516129032%\" valign=\"top\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003econductivity\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd width=\"16.93548387096774%\" valign=\"top\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eRecharge\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd width=\"14.539579967689821%\" valign=\"top\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eDecreased\u0026nbsp;by:\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd width=\"16.962843295638127%\" valign=\"top\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.25(75%)\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd width=\"26.65589660743134%\" valign=\"top\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e17.4\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd width=\"12.762520193861066%\" valign=\"top\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e198.68\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd width=\"29.079159935379643%\" colspan=\"2\" valign=\"top\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e58.80\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd width=\"14.539579967689821%\" valign=\"top\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd width=\"16.962843295638127%\" valign=\"top\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.5(50%)\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd width=\"26.65589660743134%\" valign=\"top\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e5.92\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd width=\"12.762520193861066%\" valign=\"top\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e66.30\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd width=\"29.079159935379643%\" colspan=\"2\" valign=\"top\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e55.5\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd width=\"14.539579967689821%\" valign=\"top\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd width=\"16.962843295638127%\" valign=\"top\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0.75(25%)\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd width=\"26.65589660743134%\" valign=\"top\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e1.97\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd width=\"12.762520193861066%\" valign=\"top\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e22.24\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd width=\"29.079159935379643%\" colspan=\"2\" valign=\"top\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e18.59\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd width=\"14.539579967689821%\" valign=\"top\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e1(100%)\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd width=\"16.962843295638127%\" valign=\"top\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd width=\"26.65589660743134%\" valign=\"top\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd width=\"12.762520193861066%\" valign=\"top\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd width=\"29.079159935379643%\" colspan=\"2\" valign=\"top\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd width=\"14.539579967689821%\" valign=\"top\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd width=\"16.962843295638127%\" valign=\"top\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e1.25(25%)\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd width=\"26.65589660743134%\" valign=\"top\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e1.18\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd width=\"12.762520193861066%\" valign=\"top\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e13.58\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd width=\"29.079159935379643%\" colspan=\"2\" valign=\"top\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e18.24\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd width=\"14.539579967689821%\" valign=\"top\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eIncreased\u0026nbsp;by:\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd width=\"16.962843295638127%\" valign=\"top\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e1.5(50%)\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd width=\"26.65589660743134%\" valign=\"top\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e1.97\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd width=\"12.762520193861066%\" valign=\"top\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e22.8\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd width=\"29.079159935379643%\" colspan=\"2\" valign=\"top\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e36.27\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd width=\"14.539579967689821%\" valign=\"top\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd width=\"16.962843295638127%\" valign=\"top\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e1.75(75%)\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd width=\"26.65589660743134%\" valign=\"top\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e2.54\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd width=\"12.762520193861066%\" valign=\"top\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e29.56\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd width=\"29.079159935379643%\" colspan=\"2\" valign=\"top\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e54.28\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003c/tbody\u003e\n\u003c/table\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe simulated inflow and outflow of groundwater in the whole model domain are 1070355 m3/day and 1070356 m3/day, respectively, and the difference is -0.799038 m3/day, with a discrepancy of 0%. The head distribution shows that the groundwater surface follows the topographic contour and coincides with the surface water flow. The groundwater in the study area catchment groundwater flows from the recharge area to the discharge area following this morphology. The MODFLOW calculates the hydraulic head distribution of the groundwater flow surface.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eHistogram of the calibrated results\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThis helps to clearly observe the distribution of the absolute value of the difference between the observed and simulated hydraulic heads and the frequency occurrence. The absolute head difference above 10 m can be attributed to uncertainties in the estimated stresses and hydraulic parameters.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eScatter plot showing the error distribution\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003ePlots are useful for assessing the quality of calibration simulations. The scatter plots where the observed values are plotted versus the values computed by the model. In an ideal calibration, the points will fall on a straight line with a 45 degree slope, which means that the computed value equals the measured value. In this model, it was difficult to match the theoretical line with the plot, but it followed a straight line of ±10 mts. The narrower the area of scatter around this line is, the better the match.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eScenario Analysis\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe calibrated flow model helps as a tool to evaluate the response of the aquifer system to different stresses by different scenario analysis results in numerical groundwater flow modelling. This paper has attempted to simulate two scenarios with increasing extraction of groundwater and decreasing recharge over an aquifer system. This part of model analysis has the ability to predict the response of the system to changes in future events. The model is simulated for increasing groundwater pumping levels of 150%, 200%, and 250%; and decreasing recharge levels of 25%, 50%, and 75%.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eEffects of increased groundwater withdrawals\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eGondar town is expanding and flourishing in different parts of the Megech River catchment; hence, it is reasonable to assume that the water demand will increase due to Gondar and Azezo town, the Dashen Beer industry, and the expansion and flourishing of different parts of the Megech River catchment. To meet this increasing demand, existing boreholes should be pumped at greater rates, or new boreholes with higher capacity should be drilled in the future. This can be seen from the large number of wells drilled since recently in the catchment. In the first scenario, 24 increased well withdrawal rates were simulated by considering all active wells in the catchment. The current withdrawal rate estimated under steady state simulation was 16132 m3/day.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eTable 25. Minimum and maximum draws during scenario analysis\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cimg 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\"\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAn increase in well withdrawal of 150% resulted in reductions in evapotranspiration, outflow to constant head, river base flow (outflow) and outflow to the reservoir of -0.39%, -1.97%, -0.87%,- and 0.28%, respectively, but the river leakage increased by 0.16%. Increasing the well discharge by 200% resulted in the reductions in the river base flow (outflow) of -1.74%, an increase in evapotranspiration of -0.77%, an increase in the outflow to constant head of -3.94%, and an increase in the outflow to the reservoir of -0.55%. The leakage from the river to the aquifer increased by 0.325%. Similarly, increasing withdrawal by 250% resulted in a reduction of groundwater base flow to the river of -2.62%, evapotranspiration by-1.21%, outflow to constant head by- 5.85% and outflow to the reservoir by- 0.825%, but the aquifer gains from river leakage by 0.487%. In general, the above mentioned scenarios show that river leakage to the aquifer increases and the system gains from Lake Tana, while the marsh lands decrease and the groundwater contribution to Tana Lake and the streams decreases, which can cause drying of streams and wetlands and diminishing of the lake.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eTable 26. Calibrated and increasing groundwater withdrawal water budget (m3/day).\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ctable border=\"1\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\"\u003e\n \u003ctbody\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd width=\"14.724919093851133%\" valign=\"top\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eWater\u0026nbsp;budget component\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd width=\"21.359223300970875%\" colspan=\"2\" valign=\"top\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eCalibrated\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd width=\"20.550161812297734%\" colspan=\"2\" valign=\"top\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eScenario\u0026nbsp;150%\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd width=\"20.550161812297734%\" colspan=\"2\" valign=\"top\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eScenario200%\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd width=\"22.815533980582526%\" colspan=\"2\" valign=\"top\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eScenario\u0026nbsp;250%\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd width=\"14.67741935483871%\" valign=\"top\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd width=\"9.67741935483871%\" valign=\"top\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eIn\u0026nbsp;flow\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd width=\"11.612903225806452%\" valign=\"top\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eOut\u0026nbsp;flow\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd width=\"10%\" valign=\"top\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eIn\u0026nbsp;flow\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd width=\"10.64516129032258%\" valign=\"top\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eOut\u0026nbsp;flow\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd width=\"9.03225806451613%\" valign=\"top\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eIn\u0026nbsp;flow\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd width=\"11.612903225806452%\" valign=\"top\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eOut\u0026nbsp;flow\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd width=\"10%\" valign=\"top\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eIn\u0026nbsp;flow\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd width=\"12.741935483870968%\" valign=\"top\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eOut\u0026nbsp;flow\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd width=\"14.67741935483871%\" valign=\"top\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eConstant\u0026nbsp;head\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd width=\"9.67741935483871%\" valign=\"top\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd width=\"11.612903225806452%\" valign=\"top\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e23.17\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd width=\"10%\" valign=\"top\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd width=\"10.64516129032258%\" valign=\"top\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e22.72\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd width=\"9.03225806451613%\" valign=\"top\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd width=\"11.612903225806452%\" valign=\"top\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e22.26\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd width=\"10%\" valign=\"top\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd width=\"12.741935483870968%\" valign=\"top\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e21.82\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd width=\"14.67741935483871%\" valign=\"top\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eET\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd width=\"9.67741935483871%\" valign=\"top\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd width=\"11.612903225806452%\" valign=\"top\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e17930.76\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd width=\"10%\" valign=\"top\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd width=\"10.64516129032258%\" valign=\"top\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e17861.66\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd width=\"9.03225806451613%\" valign=\"top\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd width=\"11.612903225806452%\" valign=\"top\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e17792.57\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd width=\"10%\" valign=\"top\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd width=\"12.741935483870968%\" valign=\"top\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e17713.64\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd width=\"14.67741935483871%\" valign=\"top\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eRiver\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eLeakage\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd width=\"9.67741935483871%\" valign=\"top\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e55045.12\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd width=\"11.612903225806452%\" valign=\"top\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e991965.19\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd width=\"10%\" valign=\"top\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e55134.62\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd width=\"10.64516129032258%\" valign=\"top\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e983299.3\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd width=\"9.03225806451613%\" valign=\"top\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e55224.1\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd width=\"11.612903225806452%\" valign=\"top\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e974632.9\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd width=\"10%\" valign=\"top\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e55313.52\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd width=\"12.741935483870968%\" valign=\"top\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e965975.06\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003ctr\u003e\n \u003ctd width=\"14.67741935483871%\" valign=\"top\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003eReservoir leakage\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd width=\"9.67741935483871%\" valign=\"top\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd width=\"11.612903225806452%\" valign=\"top\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e42551.5\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd width=\"10%\" valign=\"top\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd width=\"10.64516129032258%\" valign=\"top\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e42431.76\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd width=\"9.03225806451613%\" valign=\"top\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd width=\"11.612903225806452%\" valign=\"top\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e42316\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd width=\"10%\" valign=\"top\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e0\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003ctd width=\"12.741935483870968%\" valign=\"top\"\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003cp\u003e42200.24\u003c/p\u003e\n \u003c/td\u003e\n \u003c/tr\u003e\n \u003c/tbody\u003e\n\u003c/table\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eTable\u0026nbsp;27.The system response\u0026nbsp;as a\u003cins cite=\"mailto:Curie\" datetime=\"2024-06-07T09:57\"\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/ins\u003epercentage for increasing withdrawal.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003cimg 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\"\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eEffects of decreasing recharge\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIn this scenario, the simulation was performed for decreasing recharge to aquifers that may result from environmental changes, the expansion of agriculture, deforestation and town expansion. A simulation was performed for decreasing recharge to obtain the maximum and minimum declines in the groundwater level in the model area from the observation points. Decreases in the current recharge of 25%, 50% and 75% of the calibrated model were tested.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eA decrease in recharge of 25% resulted in minimum and maximum decreases in the water level of 3.934 m and 20.68 m, respectively. When the recharge decreases by 50%, the minimum and maximum decreases in the water level are 6.22 m and 39.411 m, respectively, and when the recharge decreases by 75% in the model area, the minimum and maximum decreases in the water level were 12.46 m and 61.80 m, respectively. The average decreases in the groundwater level or head in the model area were 51.3 m, 29.67 and 17.58 for scenarios one (75%), two (50%) and three (25%), respectively. A minimum decrease in the water level was observed on the north and north-east sides of Gondar city, while a maximum decrease in the water level was observed south, south-west and south-east of the study area in the plain area.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eTable 28 . The minimum and maximum drawdowns observed from observation points during recharge decrease\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cimg 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\"\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"Conclusion","content":"\u003cp\u003eThe model calibration accounts for the matching of the 19 observation points of the simulated head with a permissible residual head of \u0026plusmn;\u0026thinsp;10 m. The model was calibrated with a mean error of 4.85, an absolute mean error of 4.921 m and a square root mean error of 6.83 m. The model was more sensitive in the increasing order of riverbed conductance, horizontal hydraulic conductivity and recharge. The numerical groundwater flow model is empowered with the computation of the water budget. The simulated outflow of the model is 1070356 m3/day, which is nearly equal to the simulated inflow, with a difference of 0.79618 m3/day.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe base flow discharge of the simulated model is 991965 m3/day, which accounts for 91.86% of the outflow but still has a lower volume than the estimated flow. The river recharges the aquifer by 55045.1 m3/day, which accounts for 5.15% of the simulated inflow. The river and aquifer interaction implies a large discharge of groundwater to the dominantly gaining streams. The groundwater of the catchment is highly depleted with the discharge of the groundwater to the stream. Lake Tana is conceptualized by the CHB with a simulated 23.177 m3/day discharge of groundwater to the lake.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe model is simulated for increasing groundwater pumping of 150%, 200%, and 250% and decreasing recharge of 25%, 50% and 75%. The model response has been recognized for the average water level, groundwater discharge to the river and CHB. The average water level of the system shows a drawdown starting from 0.88 m with a 150% increase in pumping to 2.8 m with a 250% increase in groundwater withdrawal. The average water level of the system shows a drawdown starting from 17.5 m with a 25% increase in pumping to 51.3 m with a 75% increase in groundwater withdrawal.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe steady state simulated recharge decreased by 25%, and the simulation results showed an average head decrease of 17.5 m over the whole area, with the greatest decrease of 20.68 m in wells to the north and a minimum decrease of approximately 3.934 m in wells to the south. A 50% decrease in recharge simulates a decrease in the water level, with decreases of 39.4 m, 6.2 m, and 29.6 m in the maximum, minimum and average water levels, respectively. The values are 61.8 m, 12.4 m,\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe 51.3 m maximum, minimum, and mean water level decrease under the 75% recharge decreasing scenario. However, the groundwater discharge to the river decreased by 0.874% with a 150% increase in pumping and decreased by 2.62% with a 250% increase in pumping. The increase in groundwater withdrawal will also have an impact on the lake, which is represented by the CHB in the model. The groundwater discharge will decrease from 1.97% with a 150% increase to 5.8% with a 250% increase in groundwater withdrawal from pumping. The increase in groundwater withdrawal will have an impact of the reservoir in the model. The groundwater discharge will decrease from 0.28% with a 150% increase to 0.82% with a 250% increase in groundwater withdrawal from pumping. The change in the discharge of groundwater by evapotranspiration decreased by 0.39% with a 150% increase in pumping and decreased by 1.21% with a 250% increase in pumping.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe current withdrawal rate estimated under steady -state simulation was 17885. 27 m3/day. To study the response of the system in this scenario, steady-state withdrawal rates were increased by 150%, 200% and 250%, which are equivalent to withdrawing 26827.9, 35770.5, and 44713. 1 m3/day, respectively, over the whole catchment.\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"References","content":"\u003col\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eAl-Dhuhli, H., Schmitz, G.H., Lennartz, F., Sch\u0026uuml;tze, N., Grundmann, J., Kloss, S. and Pistorius, M., Optimal irrigation scheduling for fodder crops under multiple resource constraints in an arid zone environment.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eAnderson, Mary P., and William W. Woessner. (1992) \u0026quot;Applied modeling of groundwater flow-Simulation of \u0026nbsp;flow and advective transport.\u0026quot;\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eAyehu, N., 2010. Numerical groundwater flow modeling of the northern river catchment of the Lake Tana. Unpublished MSc Thesis, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eAyenew, T., Demlie, M. and Wohnlich, S., 2008. Application of numerical modeling for groundwater flow system analysis in the Akaki catchment, central Ethiopia. Mathematical geosciences, 40(8), pp.887-906.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eBear, J., Beljin, M.S. and Ross, R.R., 1992. Fundamentals of ground-water model. EPA Groundwater Issue EPA.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eFantaye, S.M., 2015. Integrated Hydrological and Hydrogeological System Analysis of the Lake Tana Basin, Northwestern Ethiopia (Doctoral dissertation, Addis Ababa UniversityAddis Ababa, Ethiopia).\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eGao, H., 2011. Groundwater modeling for flow systems with complex geological and\u0026nbsp;\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003e\u0026nbsp; hydrogeological conditions. Procedia Earth and Planetary Science, 3, pp.23-28.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eXiu-yuan, M., Shu-guang, L. and Wei-shen, Z., 2009. A new method in groundwater flow modeling. Journal of Hydrodynamics, 21(2), pp.245-254.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eYang, Q., Lun, W. and Fang, Y., 2011. Numerical modeling of three dimension groundwater flow in Tongliao (China). Procedia Eng, 24, pp.638-642.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003c/ol\u003e"}],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":true,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"Debre Markos University","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":false,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":false,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Calibration, Water budget, Simulation, Scenario, Steady state, ","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-4549637/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-4549637/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eCatchment is found in the Amhara Regional State, North Gondar Administrative Zone, Gondar town and surrounding Keble River catchment. Its total area coverage is 785 km2 , and the main lithologic units of lacustrine deposits are the Middle Basalt (Aiba) and the Upper basalt (Alajie). Numerical groundwater flow modeling of the Megech River catchment, Tana Sub Basin, is conducted with the objective of simulating the groundwater flow system of the area and evaluating the response of the hydrogeological system under different stresses so that the resulting consequences for the system can be estimated. The calibrated statistics of the model area showed a mean error (ME) of 4.8, absolute mean error (AME) of 4.9, and root mean square error (RMSE) of 6.8, which are indicators of good calibration. The sensitive parameters of the model were identified during the calibration process. Therefore, the RMSE is more sensitive to hydraulic conductivity and recharge than to river conductance. The simulated water budget under steady -state conditions in the Megech River catchment was analysed. The simulated inflow of the model is 1.0703551E+06 m3/day, which is equal to the simulated outflow of 1.0703559E+06 m3/day, with a difference of -7.9617882E-01(-0.79617882) m3/day. The total withdrawal of groundwater from the Megech catchment in the well is 1.78853E+04 m3/day. A scenario analysis was conducted for decreasing recharge and increasing withdrawal rates.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Two Dimensional Numerical Groundwater Flow Modelling Of the Megech River Catchment,Ethiopia","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2024-06-11 14:49:26","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-4549637/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":4}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"c312048a-0a32-4e85-8aca-f73cb6b3f105","owner":[],"postedDate":"June 11th, 2024","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[{"id":32984417,"name":"Geology"}],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2024-06-11T14:49:26+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2024-06-11 14:49:26","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-4549637","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-4549637","identity":"rs-4549637","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"qtupq5eGEP_6zYnWcrvyt","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}