Forecasting Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of Land Use Land Cover Land Surface Temperature and Precipitation in Northern Pakistan Using a Hybrid CA-Markov Modeling Approach

Forecasting Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of Land Use Land Cover Land Surface Temperature and Precipitation in Northern Pakistan Using a Hybrid CA-Markov Modeling Approach | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Forecasting Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of Land Use Land Cover Land Surface Temperature and Precipitation in Northern Pakistan Using a Hybrid CA-Markov Modeling Approach Imtiaz Ahmad, Wang Ping This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7743816/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted 14 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract This study employs the advanced CA-Markov model to project future LULC changes, LST, and PPT patterns for 2040 and 2060. Utilizing historical LULC data from 2000, 2010, and 2020, derived from GEE with high classification accuracy, the model integrates spatial dynamics with temporal transition probabilities. Accuracy assessments for LULC maps consistently exceeded 90% overall accuracy, ensuring robust input data. The analysis of historical trends (2000–2020) revealed significant urbanization, with built-up areas increasing by 4.7%, while vegetation declined by 4.75%. Concurrently, LST consistently rose across all LULC classes except water bodies, with maximum LST exceeding 50.95 0 C 50.95 0 C by 2020. PPT patterns exhibited variability, with an increase in intensity observed between 2000 (47.46 mm) and 2010 (67.65 mm), followed by a notable decrease in 2020 (21.06 mm). These changes reflect the combined pressures of population growth, urbanization, and climate variability. Future projections indicate a continued increase in built-up areas by 2.39% in 2040 and 0.007% in 2060, alongside a sustained decrease in vegetation cover by 8.05% in 2040 and 0.247% in 2060. LST projected to intensify further, reaching over 47 0 𝐶47 0 C in 2040 and over 54 0 𝐶54 0 C in 2060. PPT patterns show regional variability, with southern and central areas experiencing higher levels. The study linear correlation between LST and PPT (𝑅 2 values of 0.019 for 2040 and 0.015 for 2060), suggesting other factors, such as LULC changes, are primary drivers of LST variations. These findings provide critical insights for sustainable urban planning, environmental management, and climate change adaptation strategies in Northern Pakistan. CA-Markov Model LULC LST PPT Urbanization and Climate Change Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 16 Dec, 2025 Reviews received at journal 16 Dec, 2025 Reviews received at journal 05 Dec, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 01 Dec, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 29 Nov, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 27 Nov, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 26 Nov, 2025 Reviews received at journal 21 Oct, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 13 Oct, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 11 Oct, 2025 Reviewers invited by journal 08 Oct, 2025 Editor assigned by journal 06 Oct, 2025 Submission checks completed at journal 03 Oct, 2025 First submitted to journal 03 Oct, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7743816","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":531475401,"identity":"45a100d5-89ac-483e-a0d2-fcb05e176061","order_by":0,"name":"Imtiaz Ahmad","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Northeast Normal University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Imtiaz","middleName":"","lastName":"Ahmad","suffix":""},{"id":531475402,"identity":"0ea4a4bb-fe25-49eb-9e39-9d0a2c4b8dd9","order_by":1,"name":"Wang 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Approach","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":true,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"discover-forests","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"Learn more about [Discover Forests](https://link.springer.com/journal/44415)","snPcode":"44415","submissionUrl":"https://submission.nature.com/new-submission/44415/3","title":"Discover Forests","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"stoa","reportingPortfolio":"Springer 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Utilizing historical LULC data from 2000, 2010, and 2020, derived from GEE with high classification accuracy, the model integrates spatial dynamics with temporal transition probabilities. Accuracy assessments for LULC maps consistently exceeded 90% overall accuracy, ensuring robust input data. The analysis of historical trends (2000\u0026ndash;2020) revealed significant urbanization, with built-up areas increasing by 4.7%, while vegetation declined by 4.75%. Concurrently, LST consistently rose across all LULC classes except water bodies, with maximum LST exceeding 50.95 \u003csup\u003e0\u003c/sup\u003eC 50.95 \u003csup\u003e0\u003c/sup\u003eC by 2020. PPT patterns exhibited variability, with an increase in intensity observed between 2000 (47.46 mm) and 2010 (67.65 mm), followed by a notable decrease in 2020 (21.06 mm). These changes reflect the combined pressures of population growth, urbanization, and climate variability. Future projections indicate a continued increase in built-up areas by 2.39% in 2040 and 0.007% in 2060, alongside a sustained decrease in vegetation cover by 8.05% in 2040 and 0.247% in 2060. LST projected to intensify further, reaching over 47\u003csup\u003e0\u003c/sup\u003e\u0026#119862;47 \u003csup\u003e0\u003c/sup\u003eC in 2040 and over 54\u003csup\u003e0\u003c/sup\u003e\u0026#119862;54 \u003csup\u003e0\u003c/sup\u003eC in 2060. PPT patterns show regional variability, with southern and central areas experiencing higher levels. The study linear correlation between LST and PPT (\u0026#119877;\u003csup\u003e2\u003c/sup\u003e values of 0.019 for 2040 and 0.015 for 2060), suggesting other factors, such as LULC changes, are primary drivers of LST variations. These findings provide critical insights for sustainable urban planning, environmental management, and climate change adaptation strategies in Northern Pakistan.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Forecasting Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of Land Use Land Cover Land Surface Temperature and Precipitation in Northern Pakistan Using a Hybrid CA-Markov Modeling Approach","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-10-20 09:35:12","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7743816/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0},{"type":"decision","content":"Revision requested","date":"2025-12-16T09:49:01+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2025-12-16T09:36:47+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2025-12-05T05:43:13+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"141753282082527374081218468877146664568","date":"2025-12-01T06:44:54+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"265634763254609767108861325193234915335","date":"2025-11-29T08:11:50+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"173118245224610982954779342847148020211","date":"2025-11-27T10:08:24+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"48487223030557294449674517991804074451","date":"2025-11-27T03:52:08+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2025-10-22T03:51:34+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"284863967785599685232936182911661038585","date":"2025-10-13T05:43:12+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"298345098745809038627776696518607265107","date":"2025-10-11T16:18:12+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewersInvited","content":"","date":"2025-10-08T04:02:55+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorAssigned","content":"","date":"2025-10-06T05:51:07+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"checksComplete","content":"","date":"2025-10-03T08:44:50+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"submitted","content":"Discover Forests","date":"2025-10-03T08:41:22+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"discover-forests","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"Learn more about [Discover Forests](https://link.springer.com/journal/44415)","snPcode":"44415","submissionUrl":"https://submission.nature.com/new-submission/44415/3","title":"Discover Forests","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"stoa","reportingPortfolio":"Springer Open","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"34f02fc7-6eb9-419d-90d2-0d45ba262c64","owner":[],"postedDate":"October 20th, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"under-review","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-02-02T14:41:25+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2025-10-20 09:35:12","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-7743816","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-7743816","identity":"rs-7743816","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}