Seasonal Assessment of IRI-2016, IRI-2020, and AfriTEC Models Applicability in East Africa During Ascending phase of Solar Cycle 25

Seasonal Assessment of IRI-2016, IRI-2020, and AfriTEC Models Applicability in East Africa During Ascending phase of Solar Cycle 25 | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Seasonal Assessment of IRI-2016, IRI-2020, and AfriTEC Models Applicability in East Africa During Ascending phase of Solar Cycle 25 Efrem Amanuel Data, Emmanuel Daudi Sulungu, Daniel Izuikedinachi Okoh, and 1 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7486879/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Reliable estimation of ionospheric Total Electron Content (TEC) is important for optimizing satellite based communication and navigation systems. This study evaluates the performance of regional and global ionospheric models IRI-2016, IRI-2020, and AfriTEC in capturing TEC variations over East Africa during the ascending phase of Solar Cycle 25 (2021-2022). Model outputs were compared against Vertical TEC (VTEC) measurements from selected International GNSS Service (IGS) stations, with seasonal variability represented by four characteristic seasons corresponding to the March equinox, June solstice, September equinox, and December solstice. Analyses were conducted over the full two year period. Model accuracy was assessed using Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Pearson correlation coefficients, complemented by histogram analysis of residuals to examine bias polarity and error distribution. Results reveal that AfriTEC errors are generally centered near zero during equinox periods, indicating balanced model performance. However, during solstice periods particularly in December errors exhibit broader distributions and a negative bias, indicating consistent underestimation of TEC. The model also tends to underestimate peak TEC values and struggles to fully capture storm driven ionospheric irregularities. These findings highlight AfriTEC’s effectiveness as a reliable quiet time ionospheric model for East Africa, while underscoring the need for enhanced storm time parameterizations and the integration of higher resolution, real time geophysical inputs. Such improvements are essential for advancing the accuracy of ionospheric models to better support space weather monitoring and GNSS-based applications across the African region. Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7486879","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":510699526,"identity":"25d0a97c-65ab-4121-968b-1ddebe6b6eca","order_by":0,"name":"Efrem Amanuel Data","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA8klEQVRIiWNgGAWjYBACNigtw8B8AEhVADEzcwNRWngY2BKA1BmQFkb8WmAAooWxDcQmoIVP7HTi58I2Gx5+NuZn0rzzaqP524FaflRsw+0w6dzN0jPb0ngk29jMpHm3Hc+dcZixgbHnzG18WjZI87Yd5jG432B2m3fbsdwGoBZmxja8Wjb/5m37z2N/jP3bbd45x3LnE6FlG9CWAzwGbDxAWxpqcjcQo8Wa51wyj8QxnvKfc44dyN0I1HIQn1/kZ+duvs1TZifH38a+2eBNTV3uvPOHDz74UYFbCzo4DCYPEK0eCOpIUTwKRsEoGAUjBAAARrJTvH1eYN0AAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"","institution":"Wolaita Sodo University","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Efrem","middleName":"Amanuel","lastName":"Data","suffix":""},{"id":510699531,"identity":"c33eead4-7fcf-4f9f-97a8-bfe6be3ef9c0","order_by":1,"name":"Emmanuel Daudi Sulungu","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"The University of Dodoma","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Emmanuel","middleName":"Daudi","lastName":"Sulungu","suffix":""},{"id":510699535,"identity":"d5bc50c2-3dde-4694-a5ee-2cfe4d0bde85","order_by":2,"name":"Daniel Izuikedinachi Okoh","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Technical University of Kenya","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Daniel","middleName":"Izuikedinachi","lastName":"Okoh","suffix":""},{"id":510699537,"identity":"9006fe8f-a324-4d3c-858e-1e1caf7ba10a","order_by":3,"name":"Melaku Belayneh Bagaje","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Wolaita Sodo University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Melaku","middleName":"Belayneh","lastName":"Bagaje","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-08-29 09:08:13","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7486879/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7486879/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":100859045,"identity":"944adc2f-99f4-46d9-9115-daabd27305af","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-01-22 07:25:09","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":974322,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"MainManuscript.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7486879/v1_covered_820b1ad9-76cf-4942-aacd-00577fd184b9.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Seasonal Assessment of IRI-2016, IRI-2020, and AfriTEC Models Applicability in East Africa During Ascending phase of Solar Cycle 25","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7486879/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7486879/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"Reliable estimation of ionospheric Total Electron Content (TEC) is important for optimizing satellite based communication and navigation systems. This study evaluates the performance of regional and global ionospheric models IRI-2016, IRI-2020, and AfriTEC in capturing TEC variations over East Africa during the ascending phase of Solar Cycle 25 (2021-2022). Model outputs were compared against Vertical TEC (VTEC) measurements from selected International GNSS Service (IGS) stations, with seasonal variability represented by four characteristic seasons corresponding to the March equinox, June solstice, September equinox, and December solstice. Analyses were conducted over the full two year period. Model accuracy was assessed using Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Pearson correlation coefficients, complemented by histogram analysis of residuals to examine bias polarity and error distribution. Results reveal that AfriTEC errors are generally centered near zero during equinox periods, indicating balanced model performance. However, during solstice periods particularly in December errors exhibit broader distributions and a negative bias, indicating consistent underestimation of TEC. The model also tends to underestimate peak TEC values and struggles to fully capture storm driven ionospheric irregularities. These findings highlight AfriTEC’s effectiveness as a reliable quiet time ionospheric model for East Africa, while underscoring the need for enhanced storm time parameterizations and the integration of higher resolution, real time geophysical inputs. Such improvements are essential for advancing the accuracy of ionospheric models to better support space weather monitoring and GNSS-based applications across the African region.","manuscriptTitle":"Seasonal Assessment of IRI-2016, IRI-2020, and AfriTEC Models Applicability in East Africa During Ascending phase of Solar Cycle 25","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-10-14 06:12:58","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7486879/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"45c38a39-bebc-471e-a377-98e00a290343","owner":[],"postedDate":"October 14th, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-01-21T22:09:08+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2025-10-14 06:12:58","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-7486879","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-7486879","identity":"rs-7486879","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}