Social Mobility and Inequality of Opportunity in Mexico, 2017-2023: How Territory Shapes Life Chances

Social Mobility and Inequality of Opportunity in Mexico, 2017-2023: How Territory Shapes Life Chances | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Social Mobility and Inequality of Opportunity in Mexico, 2017-2023: How Territory Shapes Life Chances Thibaut Plassot Sansans, Roberto Vélez Grajales This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-9379148/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted 5 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract This paper examines recent changes in Mexico's economic class structure, intergenerational mobility, and inequality of opportunity using the 2017 and 2023 waves of the ESRU--EMOVI survey. We define adult economic class on the basis of per-capita income and classify social origin using a multidimensional cluster-based typology constructed from parental socioeconomic and territorial circumstances at age 14. Three main results emerge. First, Mexico's class structure shifted upward between 2017 and 2023: poverty declined from 31% to 23%, while the middle class expanded from 28% to 34% and became the largest group, although only slightly above the vulnerable population. Second, intergenerational mobility improved for several disadvantaged origin groups. The largest gains in middle-class attainment were observed among individuals raised in working-class households, whereas progress remained more limited for those from agricultural family backgrounds and absent for those from economically inactive and low-resource households. Third, territorial patterns do not follow a simple rural-to-metropolitan gradient. By 2023, large urban cores often offered better prospects of middle-class attainment than metropolitan areas, especially for disadvantaged groups. This pattern is reinforced by inequality-of-opportunity estimates: although total inequality and inequality of opportunity both declined nationally, around one-third of total income inequality remains attributable to circumstances of origin, while medium and large urban cores display the strongest reductions in relative inequality of opportunity. Taken together, the results suggest that Mexico's recent social upgrading has been driven by the growing role of intermediate urban territories as more favorable settings for upward mobility and reduced dependence on social origin. social mobility inequality of opportunity middle class Mexico territorial inequality intergenerational mobility Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted Reviewers agreed at journal 08 May, 2026 Reviewers invited by journal 08 May, 2026 Editor assigned by journal 13 Apr, 2026 Submission checks completed at journal 13 Apr, 2026 First submitted to journal 10 Apr, 2026 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-9379148","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":636852800,"identity":"f0364f60-a282-4e73-8588-00175dd8fbc7","order_by":0,"name":"Thibaut Plassot Sansans","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAAz0lEQVRIiWNgGAWjYDACCcYGhgdAmh/ESSggQgcPSEsCkCHZANJiQJQWkEogNjgA4hKjxV66ue1BQk2dvfH51YkfHhgwyPOLHSBgi8zBdoOEY4cTt914u1kC6DDDmbMTCDkssU0ige1AgtmNsxtAWhIMbhOl5R/QYTPObv5BvJbENmbGDfy924i05UZiu0Fi3+HEGTd4t1kkGEgQ9gv7jPRnDz58q7Pn7z+7+eaPCht5fmkCWoCADUJJgFVKEFSOpIX/AFGqR8EoGAWjYAQCAIoORLGxxmIzAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","orcid":"","institution":"Bordeaux School of Economics (BSE)","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Thibaut","middleName":"Plassot","lastName":"Sansans","suffix":""},{"id":636852801,"identity":"6e971bf1-e10c-43ea-8796-bf99e952f858","order_by":1,"name":"Roberto Vélez Grajales","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Centro de Estudios Espinosa Yglesias (CEEY)","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Roberto","middleName":"Vélez","lastName":"Grajales","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2026-04-10 11:53:51","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9379148/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9379148/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":109760420,"identity":"7a4d36c5-a2d0-40cb-8d0d-bc91d445f89b","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-05-22 07:28:39","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1558889,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"MCA20172023JEI.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-9379148/v1_covered_7489b805-d528-4a7e-b5db-0b8cd32d8c91.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Social Mobility and Inequality of Opportunity in Mexico, 2017-2023: How Territory Shapes Life Chances","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"the-journal-of-economic-inequality","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"joei","sideBox":"Learn more about [The Journal of Economic Inequality](http://link.springer.com/journal/10888)","snPcode":"10888","submissionUrl":"https://submission.nature.com/new-submission/10888/3","title":"The Journal of Economic Inequality","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"em","reportingPortfolio":"Springer Hybrid","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"social mobility, inequality of opportunity, middle class, Mexico, territorial inequality, intergenerational mobility","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9379148/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9379148/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"This paper examines recent changes in Mexico's economic class structure, intergenerational mobility, and inequality of opportunity using the 2017 and 2023 waves of the ESRU--EMOVI survey. We define adult economic class on the basis of per-capita income and classify social origin using a multidimensional cluster-based typology constructed from parental socioeconomic and territorial circumstances at age 14. Three main results emerge. First, Mexico's class structure shifted upward between 2017 and 2023: poverty declined from 31\\% to 23\\%, while the middle class expanded from 28\\% to 34\\% and became the largest group, although only slightly above the vulnerable population. Second, intergenerational mobility improved for several disadvantaged origin groups. The largest gains in middle-class attainment were observed among individuals raised in working-class households, whereas progress remained more limited for those from agricultural family backgrounds and absent for those from economically inactive and low-resource households. Third, territorial patterns do not follow a simple rural-to-metropolitan gradient. 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