Storyline-based climate attribution reveals strong intensification of 2018-2022 multi-year droughts in Europe

Storyline-based climate attribution reveals strong intensification of 2018-2022 multi-year droughts in Europe | Authorea try { document.documentElement.classList.add('js'); } catch (e) { } var _gaq = _gaq || []; _gaq.push(['_setAccount', 'G-8VDV14Y67G']); _gaq.push(['_trackPageview']); (function() { var ga = document.createElement('script'); ga.type = 'text/javascript'; ga.async = true; ga.src = ('https:' == document.location.protocol ? 'https://ssl' : 'http://www') + '.google-analytics.com/ga.js'; var s = document.getElementsByTagName('script')[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(ga, s); })(); Skip to main content Preprints Collections Wiley Open Research IET Open Research Ecological Society of Japan All Collections About About Authorea FAQs Contact Us Quick Search anywhere Search for preprint articles, keywords, etc. Search Search ADVANCED SEARCH SCROLL This is a preprint and has not been peer reviewed. Data may be preliminary. 3 November 2025 V1 Latest version Share on Storyline-based climate attribution reveals strong intensification of 2018-2022 multi-year droughts in Europe Authors : Ray Kettaren 0009-0000-2338-3209 [email protected] , Antonio Sanchez Benitez 0000-0002-2505-6014 , Helge Goessling 0000-0001-9018-1383 , Marylou Athanase 0000-0001-6603-9870 , Rohini Kumar 0000-0002-4396-2037 , Luis E. Samaniego 0000-0002-8449-4428 , and Oldrich Rakovec 0000-0003-2451-3305 Authors Info & Affiliations https://doi.org/10.22541/au.176220208.89936181/v1 Published Earth's Future Version of record Peer review timeline 378 views 207 downloads Contents Abstract Supplementary Material Information & Authors Metrics & Citations View Options References Figures Tables Media Share Abstract Prolonged summer droughts represent a significant threat across Europe, as their persistence hinders hydrological recovery and severely impacts water resources, ecosystems, and agricultural systems under ongoing warming. Here, we investigated the 2018-2022 European multi-year drought across different warming levels using an innovative storyline attribution framework, applying nudged AWI-CM-1-1-MR simulations to force the mesoscale Hydrologic Model. Under present-day climate, the 2018-2022 drought caused a soil-moisture deficit of -44 (±11.8) km 3 , affecting 0.63 (±0.07) million km 2 (11.5% of the study area). In the absence of anthropogenic climate change (pre-industrial conditions), the 2018-2022 multi-year event would have shown a soil moisture surplus nearly double the magnitude of present-day losses, with drought spatial extent only about one-third of current levels. With warming of 2 K to 4 K, the losses increase from -82 (±6.6) to -256 (±7.1) km 3 , while drought extent expands from approximately 16% to 43%. These findings highlight that higher warming levels intensify multi-year droughts, both broadening their spatial footprint and deepening their severity. As warming transforms single-year droughts into extended multi-year events, their prolonged impacts underscore the need for effective climate adaptation and mitigation strategies. Supplementary Material File (1051963_0_merged_1760607715.pdf) Download 13.46 MB File (storyline_based_climate_attribution_reveals_strong_intensification_of_2018_2022_multi_year_droughts_in_europe.pdf) Download 13.46 MB File (storyline_based_climate_attribution_reveals_strong_intensification_of_2018_2022_multi_year_droughts_in_europe_si.pdf) Download 6.08 MB Information & Authors Information Version history V1 Version 1 03 November 2025 Peer review timeline Published Earth's Future Version of Record 21 Mar 2026 Published Copyright This work is licensed under a Non Exclusive No Reuse License. Keywords climate change hydrology multi-year drought soil moisture storyline approach Authors Affiliations Ray Kettaren 0009-0000-2338-3209 [email protected] Ceska zemedelska univerzita v Praze Fakulta zivotniho prostredi View all articles by this author Antonio Sanchez Benitez 0000-0002-2505-6014 AWI, Germany View all articles by this author Helge Goessling 0000-0001-9018-1383 Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research View all articles by this author Marylou Athanase 0000-0001-6603-9870 Alfred-Wegener-Institute View all articles by this author Rohini Kumar 0000-0002-4396-2037 Helmholtz-Zentrum fur Umweltforschung UFZ View all articles by this author Luis E. Samaniego 0000-0002-8449-4428 Helmholtz-Zentrum fur Umweltforschung UFZ View all articles by this author Oldrich Rakovec 0000-0003-2451-3305 Ceska zemedelska univerzita v Praze Fakulta zivotniho prostredi View all articles by this author Metrics & Citations Metrics Article Usage 378 views 207 downloads .FvxKWukQNSOunydq8rnd { width: 100px; } Citations Download citation Ray Kettaren, Antonio Sanchez Benitez, Helge Goessling, et al. Storyline-based climate attribution reveals strong intensification of 2018-2022 multi-year droughts in Europe. Authorea . 03 November 2025. DOI: https://doi.org/10.22541/au.176220208.89936181/v1 If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download. For more information or tips please see 'Downloading to a citation manager' in the Help menu . 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