Producing Consistent Sectoral Forecasts: A Dynamic Input–Output and Macroeconometric Framework with Application ​to Spain

Producing Consistent Sectoral Forecasts: A Dynamic Input–Output and Macroeconometric Framework with Application ​to Spain | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Producing Consistent Sectoral Forecasts: A Dynamic Input–Output and Macroeconometric Framework with Application ​to Spain Milagros Dones Tacero, Juan Luis Peñaloza Figueroa, Julián Pérez García This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-9124667/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted 4 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract This paper presents a coherent and operational framework for producing medium‑ and long‑term sectoral projections fully consistent with a macroeconomic forecasting scenario. The methodology integrates econometric techniques, dynamic factor models, and classical input–output (IO) analysis to generate internally consistent projections for 64 productive branches in terms of gross value added, employment, wages, output prices, and production volumes. A dynamic non‑survey procedure is developed to reconstruct complete symmetric IO tables for both historical and forecast periods, ensuring compatibility between sectoral structures, aggregate demand, and price dynamics. The framework requires only statistical information commonly available for most economies, enabling its application beyond data‑rich contexts. An empirical illustration for Spain up to 2050 demonstrates the model’s predictive accuracy, even during periods of exceptional volatility such as the COVID‑19 crisis. Validation exercises using forecasting errors, multiplier analysis, and comparisons with OECD STAN data confirm the robustness of the approach. The resulting sectoral projections offer a valuable basis for further applications, including regional modeling, energy demand forecasting, emissions analysis, and labor market projections by qualification. JEL codes: C67, Input–Output Models, C53 – Forecasting and Prediction Methods; Simulation Methods, E27 – Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications Sectoral forecasting Input–output modeling Long‑term economic projections Output deflators Full Text Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted Reviewers agreed at journal 04 Apr, 2026 Reviewers invited by journal 24 Mar, 2026 Editor assigned by journal 18 Mar, 2026 First submitted to journal 16 Mar, 2026 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-9124667","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":611199781,"identity":"bbd4d615-4c8c-4e87-bc2e-efdf7d8084a8","order_by":0,"name":"Milagros Dones Tacero","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Autonomous University of Madrid: Universidad Autonoma de Madrid","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Milagros","middleName":"Dones","lastName":"Tacero","suffix":""},{"id":611199782,"identity":"5a938050-5e1d-43b1-84d8-a1e0e343761e","order_by":1,"name":"Juan Luis Peñaloza Figueroa","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Complutense University of Madrid: Universidad Complutense de Madrid","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Juan","middleName":"Luis Peñaloza","lastName":"Figueroa","suffix":""},{"id":611199783,"identity":"bbe3ecbf-9853-4b87-ab32-b0dc861d27f5","order_by":2,"name":"Julián Pérez García","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA20lEQVRIiWNgGAWjYBACxgbmhgNw3gfitDAitDDOINYeOJOZhxgNzDMSGw/83MGQxy99+PBn2za7aAb29gf47ZiR2HCw9wxDsWRfWoJxbltybgPPGQOCWg7wtjEkbjjDY5Cc28ac2yCRQ8AnIFv+ArXsP8P/4bBlW31ug/xzwg47DLaFh4exmbHtMNAWBgIO63nYcFi2TaJY4gybMWPPueO5bTw5+LUYticf/vi2zSaPv4f58YcfZdW5/ezH8TvMsAFMSSTARdjwqgcCeSidgE/RKBgFo2AUjHAAADNOSNtoHAJoAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4214-5991","institution":"Autonomous University of Madrid: Universidad Autonoma de Madrid","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Julián","middleName":"Pérez","lastName":"García","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2026-03-14 19:25:52","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9124667/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9124667/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":105566715,"identity":"1e45b462-6b88-4069-b1bf-eb1b281eb08d","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-03-27 12:57:05","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":908646,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Sectoriali.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-9124667/v1_covered_3935aeee-77c7-4c6d-b601-41ffb1cb4f97.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"","formattedTitle":"Producing Consistent Sectoral Forecasts: A Dynamic Input–Output and Macroeconometric Framework with Application ​to Spain","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"journal-of-economic-structures","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"jecs","sideBox":"Learn more about [Journal of Economic Structures](http://journalofeconomicstructures.springeropen.com)","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"https://www.editorialmanager.com/jecs/default.aspx","title":"Journal of Economic Structures","twitterHandle":"@SpringerOpen","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"em","reportingPortfolio":"BMC/SO AJ","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Sectoral forecasting, Input–output modeling, Long‑term economic projections, Output deflators","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9124667/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9124667/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eThis paper presents a coherent and operational framework for producing medium‑ and long‑term sectoral projections fully consistent with a macroeconomic forecasting scenario. 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