Global, Regional, National Burden of leprosy, 1990-2021: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 and forecast to 2040

Global, Regional, National Burden of leprosy, 1990-2021: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 and forecast to 2040 | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Global, Regional, National Burden of leprosy, 1990-2021: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 and forecast to 2040 Yingwu Guo, Guohui Li, Zhe Li, Xi Yang, Lingfang Zhang, Yumeng Pan, and 9 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7587994/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Background Leprosy (Hansen’s disease) is a chronic infectious disease caused by Mycobacterium leprae, potentially leading to nerve damage and disability if untreated. Prior research has not provided a thorough global perspective. Methods We evaluated global, regional, and national leprosy burdens and changes from 1990 to 2021 using Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 data. We measured prevalence, incidence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), stratified by sex, 20 age categories, 21 GBD regions, 204 nations/territories, and five SDI levels. We estimated annual percentage changes using age-standardized rates (ASR) and Bayesian age-period-cohort models, to reveal disparities, identify drivers, and project trends. Results From 1990 to 2021, there was a substantial reduction in global leprosy burden, with ASR decreasing from 11.73 to 4.84 per 100,000 population and ASR dropping from 1.65 to 0.58 per 100,000. Although males exhibited higher rates than females, both sexes demonstrated significant declines in burden. Regional analyses revealed marked disparities, with low-SDI regions experiencing the steepest declines while high-SDI areas saw slight upticks in incidence. Notably, South Asia, Tropical Latin America, and Central Sub-Saharan Africa remained hotspots, while regions with SDI ≥ 0.80 maintained near-zero burden. Age-specific patterns indicated higher prevalence and incidence rates in older age, particularly in low-SDI settings. Projections from 2021 to 2040 suggest continued declines in leprosy burden globally, although significant disparities between sexes and regions persist. Conclusions The growing global burden of NMSCs, particularly in high SDI regions and among older adults, underscores the urgent need for tailored prevention, resource allocation, and management strategies. Leprosy Global Burden of Disease Disability-adjusted life-years Health inequality Sociodemographic index Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Supplementary Files SupplymentaryAppendix20250529.docx Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7587994","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":518591936,"identity":"9a0dd861-7a92-4796-bd65-608814d1e911","order_by":0,"name":"Yingwu Guo","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Department of Dermatology Venereology, First Affiliated Hospital of Kunming Medical University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Yingwu","middleName":"","lastName":"Guo","suffix":""},{"id":518591937,"identity":"611df823-5906-43ef-8caa-4870062a5493","order_by":1,"name":"Guohui Li","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"School 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2040","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Leprosy, Global Burden of Disease, Disability-adjusted life-years, Health inequality, Sociodemographic 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Prior research has not provided a thorough global perspective.\u003c/p\u003e\u003ch2\u003eMethods\u003c/h2\u003e\u003cp\u003eWe evaluated global, regional, and national leprosy burdens and changes from 1990 to 2021 using Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 data. We measured prevalence, incidence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), stratified by sex, 20 age categories, 21 GBD regions, 204 nations/territories, and five SDI levels. We estimated annual percentage changes using age-standardized rates (ASR) and Bayesian age-period-cohort models, to reveal disparities, identify drivers, and project trends.\u003c/p\u003e\u003ch2\u003eResults\u003c/h2\u003e\u003cp\u003eFrom 1990 to 2021, there was a substantial reduction in global leprosy burden, with ASR decreasing from 11.73 to 4.84 per 100,000 population and ASR dropping from 1.65 to 0.58 per 100,000. Although males exhibited higher rates than females, both sexes demonstrated significant declines in burden. Regional analyses revealed marked disparities, with low-SDI regions experiencing the steepest declines while high-SDI areas saw slight upticks in incidence. Notably, South Asia, Tropical Latin America, and Central Sub-Saharan Africa remained hotspots, while regions with SDI\u0026thinsp;\u0026ge;\u0026thinsp;0.80 maintained near-zero burden. Age-specific patterns indicated higher prevalence and incidence rates in older age, particularly in low-SDI settings. Projections from 2021 to 2040 suggest continued declines in leprosy burden globally, although significant disparities between sexes and regions persist.\u003c/p\u003e\u003ch2\u003eConclusions\u003c/h2\u003e\u003cp\u003eThe growing global burden of NMSCs, particularly in high SDI regions and among older adults, underscores the urgent need for tailored prevention, resource allocation, and management strategies.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Global, Regional, National Burden of leprosy, 1990-2021: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 and forecast to 2040","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-09-24 06:51:12","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7587994/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"53a87649-2a6d-4871-91eb-909a70b8e33c","owner":[],"postedDate":"September 24th, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2025-09-27T17:53:28+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2025-09-24 06:51:12","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-7587994","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-7587994","identity":"rs-7587994","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}