Global Warming Amplifies Inland Compound Risks from Tropical Cyclones

Global Warming Amplifies Inland Compound Risks from Tropical Cyclones | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Physical Sciences - Article Global Warming Amplifies Inland Compound Risks from Tropical Cyclones Dan Fu, Xue Liu, Frederic Castruccio, Gan Zhang, Ping Chang, Gokhan Danabasoglu This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7369582/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Although global tropical cyclone (TC) frequency has been widely studied, projected future changes in TC‐induced hazards remain poorly understood. This is particularly true for compound wind–precipitation hazards, despite their critical importance for climate resilience. Leveraging two suites of large‐ensemble, high‐resolution climate simulations, here we show that these compound extreme hazards intensify markedly under global warming, even as global TC frequency declines. The amplification is especially significant over intermediate inland regions where historically less exposed to TCs. Comparing present (1981–2020) and late‐century (2061–2100) climates, the annual probability of compound wind and precipitation extreme hazards increases by 61.4–114.6% within 100 km of the coast and further escalate by 92.4–204.5% in areas 100–500 km inland. This inland amplification is driven by more intense landfalling TCs and sustained increases in precipitation rates linked to enhanced atmospheric moisture availability. Our results demonstrate that fewer TCs do not necessarily imply reduced TC-risk, highlighting the urgent need for adaptation strategies that address compound hazards well beyond coastlines. Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Projection and prediction Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Climate-change impacts/Governance Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Climate and Earth system modelling Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Atmospheric science/Atmospheric dynamics Earth and environmental sciences/Natural hazards Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files FuTCriskSupplementaryInfosubmission.pdf Supplementary Information Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7369582","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Physical Sciences - Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":503316561,"identity":"d041aa1f-6e10-4de5-b008-c43267e02016","order_by":0,"name":"Dan 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