Soil is in a Self-Organised Critical State with a Tipping Point Driven by Carbon

Soil is in a Self-Organised Critical State with a Tipping Point Driven by Carbon | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Soil is in a Self-Organised Critical State with a Tipping Point Driven by Carbon John Crawford, Aurélie Bacq-Labreuil, Cris Hasan, Stuart Kauffman, and 4 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-4631437/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Unsustainable practices are degrading over 40% of global agricultural soils, which in turn is driving climate change, biodiversity loss, and food and water insecurity at a planetary scale. We don’t know if further degradation will be proportionate or if there is a tipping point that will result in catastrophic loss of function. While increasing soil organic carbon stocks can restore soil functions, there is a lack of consensus on how carbon levels can be maintained, and we don’t understand how soil carbon impacts soil function. These uncertainties are the most significant barriers to investing in soil at the necessary scale and pace. Here, we develop and test a mechanistic theory that the soil system is in a self-organised critical state with a critical, or ‘tipping’, point driven by organic carbon. The parameters of the dynamical state are independent of time and management but depend on soil texture. While tillage and reduced input of carbon push soils toward this tipping point, we show the primary consequence of the self-organised critical state is maintaining functional resilience when carbon inputs fluctuate. We discuss how this dynamic state relates to the concept of soil health and the means to measure and restore it at scale. Earth and environmental sciences/Ecology/Agroecology Physical sciences/Materials science/Biomaterials Biological sciences/Systems biology/Complexity Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files Supplementarymaterial.docx Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-4631437","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":318949614,"identity":"205f783e-85ed-4873-8d5f-14f0ae504efa","order_by":0,"name":"John 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