A comparative study and application of modified SIR and Logistic models at Municipal Corporation level database of CoViD-19 in India

The WHO declared a global pandemic owing to the newfound coronavirus, or Covid-19, in March 2020. The disease quickly spread around the world by contagion, and the lack of an appropriate vaccine has led to limited social activities in every track of life. Several national and state-level studies conducted predict the course of the pandemic using machine learning algorithms, most common being the SIR and the Logistic models. However, it is unclear whether these models work for a controlled community like Municipal Corporation or not. With measures now being employed at Municipal levels in India, it only fits to conduct particular research to examine how these models perform at lower jurisdictions. This study provides concrete evidence to show the superiority of the modified SIR model over the Logistic model based on analysis. The models not only give accurate predictions for up to 14 days but can also be used to define and signify the practicality and effectiveness of the decisions taken by the authorities. This feature of the study allows us to justly say that the government action of Unlock 1.0 was not a wise decision considering the nature of the pandemic. This study hopes to help the authorities to take the proper actions to prevent any further aggravation of the spreading virus. In conclusion, Municipal corporations having control should make use of this study to make decisions and test their effectiveness, and more corporations should be empowered to benefit from this study.