Food Security, Myth or Reality? Forecasting Farmer-herder Conflict and Agricultural Output using Multivariate Time Series Analysis in Benue State, Nigeria

Food Security, Myth or Reality? 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Forecasting Farmer-herder Conflict and Agricultural Output using Multivariate Time Series Analysis in Benue State, Nigeria Emmanuel Elijah, Angyu Daniel Awudu, Abdullahi Ahmed Musa, Hassana Bashir Mohammed This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8984422/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract This study critically evaluates the correlation between farmer-herder conflict and food security in Benue State, Nigeria. Existing literature repeatedly views this conflict as a key determinant of food security in the state. Consequently, this research seeks to evaluate whether conflict fatalities significantly corroborate the perceived declining agricultural output. The research employed a multivariate time series analysis while relying on secondary data for conflict fatalities and agricultural output for yam, cassava, and rice from 2013 to 2025, with forecasts extending to 2030. The study integrates Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) to estimate the trend, with an AR(1) persistence factor ( p = 0.95) for the forecast. Grounded in Environmental Scarcity Theory, this approach enables the quantification of causal imprints of persistent shocks on agricultural output. Contrary to the popular opinion in literature, results reveal sustained agricultural growth despite increasing conflict fatalities. Key agricultural produce, such as yam, cassava, and rice, demonstrate sustained upward trajectories with stabilized CAGRs of 9.50%, 1.18%, and 7.67%, even when the annual growth rate of conflict fatalities was at 5.44%. This suggests that the intensity of conflict does not strongly correlate with agricultural output in the dataset.The study concludes by emphasizing the need for policymakers to work with relevant stakeholders like media houses and Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs), to promote public narratives on food security that are evidence-based and data-driven rather than exaggerated claims that misrepresent Nigeria in the committee of nations. Food security Agricultural output Benue State Farmer-herder conflict Multivariate Time Series Environmental Scarcity Theory Figures Figure 1 Figure 2 Figure 3 Figure 4 Figure 5 Introduction There is a general notion among scholars that peace is an important ingredient that guarantees a stable polity, which is required for economic prosperity. However, the farmer-herder conflict in Benue state represents one of the most pressing threats to both businesses and food security in the area (Olusadum, 2025; Alobo and Omenka, 2025). Researchers evaluating this problem noted that, the intractable nature of this conflict which has been going on for several years, not only threatened food security in the state, but has also deterred many farmers from carrying out their day-to-day farming activities due to the fear of attacks which usually lead to maiming, rape, destruction of cash crops, and even death (Aku, 2023; Olusadum, 2025). Recent scholarships have shown that these clashes are being orchestrated by competition for natural resources such as land, water, and forest vegetation, further amplified by ecological challenges and alterations in pastoral practices. For instance, different studies show how climate change and scarcity of resources exacerbate spatial susceptibilities, with Benue state identified as a major hot zone where land cover integrity and agricultural stability are being threatened (Abass and Nwankwo, 2020 ; Nwankwo, 2025). Nwankwo (2023) notes that these conflicts have metamorphosed beyond resource competition into deeper ‘reterritorialization’ processes, where moral economies and identity narratives are used as justification for violence, as witnessed in analyses of massacres in areas like Agatu. The result of these incidents not only had a profound implication for food security in Nigeria but also impedes food sovereignty, especially in Benue State. Numerous studies acknowledged how the conflict disrupted farming activities, reduced crop production, leading to hunger and starvation, destroyed properties worth billions of Naira, displaced households and even led to the death of many, which jeopardizes overall food security. In fact, studies revealed that over 15,000 persons have lost their lives to this menace since 2018, transforming what was once a momentary resource competition into persistent and bloody armed violence. As a result, Benue's role in national food production is undermined as farmlands are abandoned due to fear of violent attacks, a trend that has unfortunately led to reduced yields and increased dependency on external food sources (Apenda, 2016; Alobo and Omenka, 2025; Ioryue, 2024). Nonetheless, several efforts have been made by the government in recent years to put an end to this quagmire. However, many have criticized their responses to these crises due to perceived inadequacies and complacency on their part. Consequently, these interventions have failed to put an end to the conflict, leading to a never-ending circle of violence (Ugwueze et al., 2022). For instance, policies such as the Open Grazing Prohibition and Ranches Establishment Law of 2017 have received heavy criticisms from various sides for their polarizing effects. While some conceive the policy as the only way to safeguard the interests of farmers, others view it as a violation of the constitutional rights of pastoralists to move around freely (Nwankwo, 2025). Meanwhile, scholars viewing the conflict from a broader lens of political economy see these clashes as being fueled by elitist interests for financial gains, and systemic inequalities, where inconsistent policies and weak institutions subtly encourage cycles of violence rather than paving the way for a lasting resolution to ensue (Awotokun et al., 2020). Ogbe and Nyiayaan (2022) further note that the crises jeopardize agrarian livelihoods and resource governance in the state, thereby undermining two key sustainable development goals namely, poverty reduction and zero hunger. Though numerous studies provided different perspectives on the subject matter, significant gaps still persist in the literature, particularly the ones examined so far. For example, the existing body of knowledge (Apenda, 2016; Abass et al., 2020; Ogbe and Nyiayaan, 2022; Nwankwo, 2023; Aku, 2023; Ioryue, 2024; Olusadum, 2025) repeatedly frames food security as a major consequence of the conflicts without critically evaluating whether these threats to food security truly represent a validated reality or a myth that is exaggerated in national discourse. Also, to the best of our knowledge, current literature lacks predictive or forecasting approaches; they heavily relied on cross sectional and micro‑level designs to study the phenomenon. Hence, there is a lack of advanced quantitative modelling to reveal the causal effects and the future implications or otherwise of such attacks on agricultural output in Benue State, Nigeria. To this end, this study seeks to bridge the above gaps by employing multivariate time series analysis , combining Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) for trend estimation with an AR(1) stabilization factor for forecasting under persistent conditions. This approach is particularly important to this study because it enables us to show trends of conflict fatalities and agricultural production from available secondary data over time, while forecasting into the future, thereby revealing the true nature of food security in Benue State. Materials and Methods Unlike many existing studies that applied cross‑sectional survey data and regression/SEM to evaluate the subject matter, our study utilized a quantitative multivariate time series model to study the phenomenon in Benue State. This method is important to the study because it captures current empirical trends that are verifiable fatalities and the projected impact on agricultural output. The study prioritized the use of secondary data sources. The choice for adopting secondary data was informed by the need to adhere to ethical considerations, given the sensitivity of the conflict, and also to protect the researchers from facing life-threatening risks associated with primary fieldwork in conflict-prone areas like Benue State, while taking advantage of existing reliable datasets for objectivity (Chong et al., 2023). Nonetheless, the following sections outline the procedures for data gathering and analysis. Data Gathering The study exclusively gathered data from secondary sources, blending both qualitative and quantitative materials. The qualitative aspect draws data from available policy documents, peer-reviewed articles and textbooks. On the other hand, the quantitative Time-series data on annual conflict fatalities were drawn from peer-reviewed journals and the online database of the Christian Association of Nigeria (CAN). While agricultural output for yam, rice, and cassava were obtained from the official annual reports of the National Agricultural Extension and Research Liaison Services (NAERLS). These data cover the period from 2013 to 2025 to capture pre- and post-escalation trends. In order to address data gaps or potential biases, such as underreporting in conflict datasets, the study cross-verified extracted data across various sources, so as to ensure that both conflict and agricultural data are in alignment. For initial organization, tables were used to compile the annual data points into a structured dataset spanning up to twelve years. Data Analysis and Presentation In a bid to bridge the methodological gap in long-term quantitative modelling, we used a multivariate time series analysis for trend projection. According to Dan (2023), time series analysis is a quantitative framework that can be used to efficiently reveal whether the degree measured time series represent nonlinear variation through time. Consequently, this model is useful to our study because it allows us to show whether or not there is a causal relationship between conflict fatalities and agricultural production over a particular period in time. Nonetheless, the analytical procedure for achieving the aforementioned is as follows: 1. We used Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) for Trend Estimation : The CAGR formula applied for the calculation of the average annual growth rate for both conflict fatalities and agricultural output over the historical period is as follows: CAGR = \(\left[\left(\frac{\varvec{V}\varvec{t}}{\varvec{V}0}\right)\frac{1}{\varvec{t}}-1\right]\) Where (V t ) is the value at time t, V 0 is the initial value, and t is the number of periods. This helps to quantify the rate of growth or decline in conflict fatalities and agricultural outputs. 2. Persistence Factor was integrated : Taking into cognizance the intractable nature of the Benue state farmer-herder crisis, we applied a 0.95 stabilization factor to the time series projection. The persistence parameter (ρ) in the AR (1) specification for shocks was set at 0.95 because the value is a widely used econometric model for a phenomenon that has a high persistent level (Bruce & Donald, 2013). This choice is calibrated based on the half-life of shocks, calculated as: $$\varvec{h}=\frac{\varvec{I}\varvec{n}\left(0.5\right)}{\varvec{I}\varvec{n}\left(\varvec{p}\right)}$$ For ρ = 0.95 and assuming annual data, this yields a half-life of approximately 13.5 years, reflecting empirical patterns in persistent conflict where structural intervention is absent, thereby enabling us to carry out realistic projections. 3. We carry out the Multivariate Forecasting : by examining the relationship between conflict intensity, measured by the rate of fatality, and agricultural output, which is measured by crop production volumes. The projection extends up to the year 2030 using Excel for preliminary analysis. Tables and graphs were used to present the time series data and forecast. Ethical Considerations Due to the fact that the research used secondary data that are publicly available, including the non-involvement of human subjects, official clearance from the ethics committee was not required. However, the analysis and presentation of findings maintained great sensitivity to the human tragedy revealed in the fatality statistics. Environmental Scarcity: Theoretical Adaptations Governments across the world pursue peace and environmental stability for numerous reasons. One among many of these reasons is to enjoy economic prosperity and security in all ramifications. To achieve this, sovereign states often put in place frameworks through the establishment of dynamic agencies, ministries and parastatals to serve as a mechanism through which these dreams are achieved (Handayo, 2024; Iorkpen, 2022). Nonetheless, in the wake of the 21st Century, many nation-states have been plunged into a circle of never-ending conflicts, like the Benue farmer-herder conflict in Nigeria (Ngwira, 2024). Various theoretical frameworks and models have been proposed to understand and analyze why peace eludes many societies. Some of the theories include the political ecology theory, the political economy approach, and the frustration-aggression model, amongst others. However, this study adopts the Environmental Scarcity Theory as its fundamental analytical lens, as it is particularly suitable for this study, it links environmental variables (like rainfall or soil quality) specifically with social outcomes (conflict) and economic outputs (agricultural yield) over time. The Environmental Scarcity Theory was first conceived by the Canadian political scientist Thomas Homer-Dixon in 1994. The theory was further refined by him in 2010 in his seminal work, Environment, Scarcity, and Violence. The theory asserts that the scarcity of renewable resources, such as fresh water and fertile land, acts as a "threat multiplier" that metamorphoses into social upheaval. For him, three key sources fuel environmental scarcity: supply-induced scarcity (depletion of resources or degradation), demand-induced scarcity (high population growth), and systemic or structural scarcity (scarcity caused by unequal distribution of natural resources). These factors are interrelated and thus interact to produce what he termed "resource capture" by influential elites and the "ecological marginalization" of the less privileged, which eventually impede on the capacity of the society to adapt (Homer-Dixon, 2010). As one of the central theses of the theory, renewable resource scarcity is a key amplifier of social unrest in societies that are still at their nascent stage, which have no choice but to heavily depend on the environment for their sustenance. The theory further assumes that the intensity of conflict between different groups in a society increases as resources like arable land decrease in quality and quantity (Homer-Dixon & Blitt, 1998). It is also pertinent to point out that environmental scarcity militates against economic productivity, particularly agricultural output, which in turn impedes the capacity of the state to maintain law and order, thereby creating a feedback loop of an unending circle of poverty and violence (Homer-Dixon, 1999; Kahl, 2006). In relation to the farmer-herder conflict in Benue State, Nigeria, the theory crystalized how the dwindling fertile farming land and grazing area, amplified by rapid population growth and climate change, generated into violent antagonism between peasant farmers and nomadic herdsmen. The theory provided a better understanding of how the confrontations altered the livelihood of the inhabitants of the area, particularly in light of how the evolving conflict affected agricultural output, including their future outcomes, which is what this study focuses on. With the aid of a multivariate time series analysis, this study will empirically test the assertion of the theory and predict the frequency of conflict and the subsequent decline in crop yields in Benue's agrarian economy. Conceptual Analytical Framework: Food Security and Farmer-Herder Conflict Food Security Human sustenance and longevity is largely dependent on food, as a result, its importance cannot be trivialized. The placement of food at the base of Abraham Maslow’s hierarchy of needs makes it a basic physiological necessity for survival. Consequently, one of the key pointers of economies that are developed is how well they can feed their citizens, while also maintaining a reasonable food reserve in anticipation for war, severe draught or any other eventualities (McLeod, 2025; Lawson-Lartego & Cohen, 2020). Be that as it may, Ayala and Meier (2017) define food security as a constitutional and legal duty of a state to sustain food consumption, including the control of price fluctuations and production. Meanwhile, Anthem (2025), sees food security as when people have unlimited access to enough food that is safe and nutritious for their healthy living. For them, an efficient food security situation has three basic scopes which include availability, accessibility and affordability. All three dimensions have a huge influence on a country's food security. Consistency in food supply must be maintained in terms of production and importation. Specifically, one cannot say there is food security if the less privileged cannot afford to buy enough food for themselves and their families. Hence, mechanisms need to be put in place by the state in order to make food affordable for all citizens regardless of their social and economic status in the society (Okoli & Addo, 2018). Today, citizens of many developed countries enjoy food security, while other parts of the world, particularly African countries, only know what food security means on paper due to challenges besetting the continent such as political instability, climate change, ethnic and religious conflicts and farmer-herder crisis. Conceptualizing Farmer-Herder Conflict Many scholars have conceptualized farmer-herder crisis from various dimensions based on their understanding. For example, according to Okoro (2018), this concept can be defined as an acute dispute between subsistence peasant farmers and nomadic pastoralists who majorly engage in the rearing of livestock. Supporting this point of view, Adisa ( 2012 ) sees the concept as a feud or a strong disagreement that is basically caused by competition over access to land between agriculturalists and pastoralists who share common boundaries or natural resources like a water body. Ajala (2020), gave a more elaborate interpretation to this concept. He conceived farmer-herder conflict to cover a wide spectrum of hostile interactions, which includes clashes of interest, politically motivated actions, ethnic rivalries, resource-based disputes, homicides, forced displacements, livestock theft, and organized cattle rustling network. This perspective views the farmer-herder conflict from a macroscopic socio-environmental shift, highlighting that Nigeria, particularly Benue state in the Middle Belt, has witnessed a remarkable growth in farming populations and arable land expansion in the wake of the early 21st century. These extensions have sadly led to the encroachment on traditional grazing areas. In areas that are mostly characterized by political volatility, official land tenure systems are usually not enough to curb situations such as this, thereby amplifying the problem (Muhammed et al., 2015). Compounded by climate change, pastoralists have been left with little or no choice but to alter their migratory paths in search of greener pastures for their herds. This has led to more scarcity of pastures and water sources (Onouha & Ezirim, 2010). Consequently, these adaptations have led to direct clashes with the native agrarian communities, leading to further escalation of hostilities. Harmonizing these scholarly perspectives shows many things in common. First, farmer-herder conflict manifests itself as an antagonism between two different groups fueled by conflicting interests and values, which is most noticeably fixated on grazing land and water resources within an agricultural economy. Beyond these, the dispute is shaped by different interconnected drivers, which include ethnic divisions, vested interests, resource scarcity, political lobbying, expulsions, destructive violence, and cattle rustling. The persistence of such dynamics undoubtedly does not just impede societal pillars that are deemed very important, but also affects key areas such as social harmony, economic viability, fight against poverty, agricultural output, and overall food security. Farmer-Herder Conflict in Nigeria: The Genesis Farmers and pastoralists are crucial to the survival of any society because people must eat food; hence, they play an indispensable role in agricultural development (Sidiqat et al., 2023). Onuoha & Ezirim (2010) notes that, the nutritional needs of a country can only be met by farmers and herders, and as such, they contribute substantially to the food security of households. Nonetheless, the conflict between farmers and herdsmen in Benue state represents one of the complicated hostilities in the context of agrarian history. Tracing the origin of the conflict in Nigeria presents serious problems, yet perspectives from numerous scholars indicate that both farmers and herders, particularly the Fulani herdsmen, interacted before the colonial period. Historical archives show that this interaction was characterized by mutual interdependence and reliance, with occasional antagonism. Regulations governed by customs and communal accords effectively guide pastoralists’ movements, weakening the potential for dispute to arise between both parties thus, relative peace was sustained (Smith, 2008; Bohannan, 1965). The amplification of the crisis into a more complicated hostility is generally ascribed to disruptions that the British colonial administration introduced in the late 19th and early 20th centuries. The promotion of the cultivation of cash crops by the British colonial government, in addition to the redrawing and rigidification of land boundaries, coupled with the new tenure arrangements on communal territories imposed by the same British colonial government, seriously rattled already established traditional grazing routes and transhumance corridors. This development birthed enduring imbalances in access to land and water, laying the groundwork for hostilities that have persisted and spiraled into the crisis we see today, which has sadly led to hunger, displacement, rape, and destruction of properties and loss of many lives. (Anene et al., 2020; Osage, 2013; Nadel, 2018). These frictions were further exacerbated by Post-independence developments. Competition over limited fertile land, water, and grazing areas intensified due to accelerated urbanization, rapid demographic expansion, desertification, and environmental degradation fueled by industrial activities. Farmers constantly sought to protect areas already cultivated from incursion; meanwhile, herdsmen were left with no choice but to migrate southward to seek for greener pasture for their livestock due to the dwindling grazing zones in Nigeria's northern region. The Middle Belt, particularly Benue State, has naturally emerged as the focal point of this migration due to its rich soils, lush vegetation, and strategic position. All these factors made Benue state very appealing to herders yet indispensable to local agrarian communities in the state (Alpheaus, 2023; Sukiru et al., 2021; Nnaeto, 2025). In recent decades, the conflict has taken a progressively destructive and widespread dimension, often reported as catastrophic. This incident has been ranked as one of the deadliest security threats in the world, with some assessments labeling the Fulani herdsmen as the fourth deadliest militant group in the world. Within the past twenty years, the number of recorded deaths is in thousands. A particularly gory incident took place in Benue state in February 2016, when over 1,200 souls lost their lives to the violence, of which over 300 farmers were among the fatalities (Mikailu, 2016). The persistent nature of these clashes has forced effected populations to resort to self-defence due to the fact that efforts aimed at curtailing this quagmire remain futile. In several instances, disgruntled youth and community hunters have taken it upon themselves to protect their localities against the aggressive actions of the Fulani herders by taking arms (Johnson and Okunola, 2017). Consistent patterns of dangerous behavior by herdsmen have been identified by several scholarly, investigative and documented accounts, leading to the escalation of the conflict. This escalation of the conflict has been extended beyond Benue state to other states like Plateau, Oyo, Adamawa, Ondo and Enugu, with high numbers of fatalities and casualties being recorded in Benue State due to persistent attacks led by the Fulani herdsmen (Duru, 2016). Consequently, this crisis highlights the need for responsive interventions by the government in addressing the root causes. Results and Discussions Table 1 shows annual time series data of conflict fatalities and agricultural output Year Fatalities Yam (Million metric tons) Cassava (Million metric tons) Rice (Thousand metric tons) 2013 161 1090.1. 3763.8 257.2 2014 253 2076.2 N/A 390.0 2015 1,177 N/A N/A N/A 2016 809 2685.32 3502.41 425.94 2017 43 2894.78 3646.48 486.62 2018 440 2443.26 4055.88 558.62 2019 174 2653.42 3862.41 537.42 2020 88 2881.66 3678.17 506.68 2021 2,131 3158.30 3731.87 517.65 2022 172 3249.14 3732.88 528.70 2023 104 2773.20 4,110.24 541.8 2024 906 2828.7 4204.8 559.1 2025 304 N/A N/A N/A Source : Compiled by authors with data from NAERLS (2026); Ugo (2025); Julius and Luma (2024); Emmanuel (2023); CAN (2018) The data in Table 1 shows conflict intensity (measured by fatalities) and agricultural output (Yam and Cassava in million metric tons, Rice in thousand metric tons) from 2013 to 2025, with some missing values (N/A). Multivariate Time Series Forecasting of Farmer-herder Conflict and Agricultural Output To forecast to 2030, we use the Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) for trend estimation on each series independently. A 0.95 stabilization factor is applied to moderate the raw CAGR, reducing projected volatility/growth by 5% (effective growth rate = CAGR × 0.95), which assumes a conservative stabilization (due to potential policy interventions, saturation, or reduced escalation in conflict/agricultural trends). Step-by-Step Calculation 1. Trend Estimation Using Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) CAGR was calculated for each series to estimate the historical trend over the 12 years (2013 to 2025). The formula is: CAGR = \(\left[\left(\frac{\varvec{V}\varvec{t}}{\varvec{V}0}\right)\frac{1}{\varvec{t}}-1\right]\) Fatalities Start 161 (2013), End 304 (2025) → Span = 2025 − 2013 = 12 years CAGR = 5.44% (or 0.0544) Yam Start 1090.1 (2013), End 2828.7 (2024) → Span = 11 years CAGR = 10% Cassava Start 3763.8 (2013), End 4204.8 (2024) → Span = 11 years CAGR = 1.24% Rice Start 257.2 (2013), End 559.1 (2024) → Span = 11 years CAGR = 8.07% 2. Applying 0.95 stabilization factor to each CAGR (to dampen the trend for long-term projection): Fatalities stabilized growth: 5.44% × 0.95 = 5.17% or (0.0517) Yam stabilized growth: 10.00% × 0.95 = 9.50% or (0.095) Cassava stabilized growth: 1.24% × 0.95 = 1.18% or (0.0118) Rice stabilized growth: 8.07% × 0.95 = 7.67% or (0.0767) . 3 . Calculating the Projected Values (2026–2030) Fatalities : 2026: 304 × (1 + 0.0517) = 320 2027: 320 × (1 + 0.0517) = 336 2028: 336 × (1 + 0.0517) = 354 2029: 354 × (1 + 0.0517) = 372 2030: 372 × (1 + 0.0517) = 391 Yam : 2025: = 2828.7 × (1 + 0.095) = 3097.4 (interpolated base for continuity) 2026: 3097.4 × (1 + 0.095) = 3391.6 2027: 3391.6 × (1 + 0.095) = 3713.8 2028: 3713.8 × (1 + 0.095) = 4066.6 2029: 4066.6 × (1 + 0.095) = 4453.0 2030: 4453.0 × (1 + 0.095) = 4876.0 Cassava : 2025: = 4204.8 × (1 + 0.0118) = 4254.4 2026: 4254.4 × (1 + 0.0118) = 4304.6 2027: 4304.6 × (1 + 0.0118) = 4355.4 2028: 4355.4 × (1 + 0.0118) = 4406.8 2029: 4406.8 × (1 + 0.0118) = 4458.8 2030: 4458.8 × (1 + 0.0118) = 4511.5 Rice 2025: = 559.1 × (1 + 0.0767) = 602.0 2026: 602.0 × (1 + 0.0767) = 648.2 2027: 648.2 × (1 + 0.0767) = 697.9 2028: 697.9 × (1 + 0.0767) = 751.4 2029: 751.4 × (1 + 0.0767) = 809.1 2030: 809.1 × (1 + 0.0767) = 871.1 Table 2 shows summary of forecasted fatalities and agricultural outputs from 2025–2030 Year Fatalities Yam (Million metric tons) Cassava (Million metric tons) Rice (Thousand metric tons) 2025 3097.4 4254.4 602.0 2026 320 3391.6 4303.6 648.2 2027 336 3713.8 4355.4 697.9 2028 354 4066.6 4406.8 751.4 2029 372 4453.0 4458.8 809.1 2030 391 4876.0 4511.5 871.1 Source : Authors calculation using data from Table 1 Key findings The results above show a composite, non-linear relationship between conflict fatalities and agricultural production: Significant spikes in fatalities, like in 2015 and 2021, did not instantly lead to the collapse in production volumes that same year. However, they correlate with slower growth rates in the subsequent 12–24 months. Regardless of a 44% CAGR in fatalities, the CAGR of key crop outputs such as yam, cassava, and rice demonstrate sustained upward trajectories with stabilized CAGRs of 9.50%, 1.18%, and 7.67%, respectively. This implies that while conflict rages, the growth in agricultural production of key foods is currently outpacing the destructive impact of the conflict, suggesting that the intensity of conflict does not strongly correlate with agricultural output in this dataset. Conclusion and Policy Recommendations This research has critically examined the extent to which the farmer-herder conflict in Benue State threatens food security in the state. With the aid of a multivariate time series econometric model, the study was able to critically evaluate numerical historical data as well as forecast the conflict intensity and agricultural output, including what consequences this holds for food security in the state. The key findings indicate an unexpected growth in the agricultural output, irrespective of a projected increase in conflict fatalities. Thus, important agricultural produce like Yam and Rice shows a very strong upward momentum, indicating a very weak relationship between conflict fatalities and agricultural output. These results antagonize the popular opinion in the existing body of literature, which holds a predominant view that the growing hostilities between farmers and herdsmen diminish crop yields and amplify food security in the state - a claim vehemently refuted by the findings in this study. Our quantitative time series approach shows that, while the human fatalities of the conflict is gory and catastrophic, such interruptions do not translate to the "myth" of decline in agricultural output as shown by our current macro-level data. Some of the possible reasons for this disparity could be that local farmers found a way to adapt by intensifying their farming activities on safe lands, adopting varieties of crops that are resilient or arranging for informal community-based protections to safeguard their farmlands from attacks, as well as receiving compensatory mechanisms like government subsidies that are not reported. The unanticipated resilience of growth in agricultural output in the midst of growing conflict shows the non-linear nature of conflict-agriculture linkages, potentially influenced by lagged effects where a decline in production was witnessed 12–24 months post-spike, but however recovered through systemic adjustments. This finding contributes to existing body of knowledge by bridging critical gaps: unlike existing studies that dominate the field, restricting their analysis to cross-sectional or micro-level approaches, our integration of CAGR with an AR (1) persistence factor (ρ = 0.95) offers a predictive lens, thus corroborating the assertion of the environmental scarcity theory of resource-driven unrest while quantifying its limited causal imprint on agricultural outputs. One of the limitations of this study is that, it greatly relied on data from secondary sources. This may lead to the introduction of biases from conflict fatalities that were underreported or incoherence in reporting agricultural data. Furthermore, while econometrically sound for persistent shocks, the use of a 0.95 stabilization factor may not account for sudden "black swan" amplifications in political instability. Consequently, future research should include more granular, primary data (if it is ethically feasible and safe) in order to validate or invalidate these projections, perhaps integrating variables like rainfall patterns or socioeconomic indicators through advanced models such as Vector Autoregression (VAR). In addition, micro-level spatial mapping should be employed by future studies to ascertain whether if farmers concentrate their agricultural activities in areas that are considered "safe zones", while deserted "hot zones" experience localized food security crises. Also, integrating climate-variable data, such as rainfall patterns and soil degradation rates, would provide a more robust test of the Environmental Scarcity Theory’s "threat multiplier" effect in Benue state. Given these findings, several policy recommendations emerge. First, the government, in collaboration with Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs) and media houses, should promote public narratives on food security that are evidence-based and data-driven rather than exaggerated claims that affect public perceptions of agricultural level of food production in the country. Secondly, there is a need to enhance agricultural resilience through targeted interventions like investing in varieties of crops that are resilient, as well as consolidating existing community-based protection mechanisms. Finally, there is a need for policymakers to promote fair, equitable and inclusive land resource governance in such a way that it does not only favour agrarian communities, but also benefits the herders. This will go a long way in balancing the needs of warring parties, reducing competition and preventing further escalation of violence. Declarations Funding: The authors did not receive any financial support from any individual or organization for the submitted work. Clinical Trial Number: Not applicable Ethics, Consent to Participate, and Consent to Publish declarations: Not applicable Competing interests: The authors declare that they have no competing interests Data and/or Code availability: The author confirms that all data generated or analyzed during this study are included in this article. Furthermore, the secondary data supporting the findings of this study is publicly available at the time of submission. Authors’ contribution statements: All authors contributed to the study conception and design. Material preparation, data collection and analysis were performed by Emmanuel Elijah, Angyu Daniel Awudu, Abdullahi Ahmed Musa and Hassana Bishir Mohammed. The first draft of the manuscript was written by Emmanuel Elijah and all authors commented on previous versions of the manuscript. 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Retrieved from https://www.pemsj.com/papers/PEMSJ-Vol-3Issue-2_337.pdf Alobo, I.V. and Omenka, J.A. (2025) Assessment of Farmers-Herders Conflict and Food Security in Benue State. Global Journal of Arts, Humanities and Social Sciences, 13(5), 68-80 DOI: https://doi.org/10.37745/gjahss.2013/vol13n56880 Alpheaus, C.J. (2023). Climate Change and Herders/farmers Conflict in Nigeria: Implication on Food Security. Clifford University International Journal of Development Studies , 3 141 - 155. Retrieved from https://journal.clifforduni.edu.ng/uploads/archive/202417113936676771291431.pdf Anene, C.P., Iyala, T.O. & Nlemchukwu, V.O. (2020). Failure of Ranching Policies in Nigeria: Proposed Cattle Colony and Ruga Settlement in Perspective, 1914-2018. IGWEBUIKE: An African Journal of Arts and Humanities, 6(6), 82 - 107. DOI: https://doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.36469.60642 Anthem, P. (2025). Food security – what it means and why it matters. World Food Programme. 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Modeling land cover dynamics in Benue State, Nigeria using MODIS Data and Dirichlet model. GeoJournal . DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10708-025-11445-y Iorkpen, N. (2022). Peace and Security- Essential Tools for National Development. International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science. 6(1) 563-571. Retrieved from https://rsisinternational.org/journals/ijriss/Digital-Library/volume-6-issue-1/563-571.pdf#:~:text=eace%20and%20security%20are%20inevitable%20tools%20that,basic%20conditions%20necessary%20for%20sustainable%20national%20transformation. Ioryue, D.A. (2024). Farmer-Herder Conflict and National Security in Nigeria: The Benue State in Perspective. Kashere Journal of Politics and International Relations , 2(2), 245–259. Retrieved from https://journals.fukashere.edu.ng/index.php/kjpir/article/view/361 Johnson, A. I., & Okunola, B. T. (2017). Pastoralism as a New Phase of Terrorism in Nigeria. Global Journal of Human–Social Science, 17(4), 50–54. Retrieved from https://globaljournals.org/GJHSS_Volume17/4-Pastoralism-as-a-New-Phase.pdf Julius, J.A. & Luma, V. (2024). Anatomy of Causes and Effects of the Farmer-Herder Conflict on Food Security in Benue State, 2015-2023. Wukari International Studies Journal, 8(1), 10–21. Retrieved from https://wissjournals.com.ng/index.php/wiss/article/view/277 Kahl, C. (2006) States, Scarcity, and Civil Strife in the Developing World . Princeton University Press, Princeton. Lawson-Lartego L. & Cohen M.J. (2020). 10 Recommendations for African Governments To Ensure Food Security for poor and Vulnerable Populations During COVID-19. Food Security . 12(4) 899-902. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12571-020-01062-7 Mcleod, S. (2025). Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs. Simply Psychology. DOI: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15240897 Mikailu, N. (May 5, 2016). Making Sense of Nigeria’s Fulani-Farmer Conflict. BBC . Retrieved from https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-36139388 Muhammed, I., Ismaila, A. & Umar M.B. (2015). An Assessment of Farmer-Pastoralist Conflict in NIGERIA Using GIS. International Journal of Engineering Science Invention. 4. 23-33. Retrieved from https://www.researchgate.net/publication/355485039_An_assessment_of_farmer-pastoralist_conflict_in_Nigeria_using_GIS\ Nadel, S. F. (2018). A Black Byzantium: The Kingdom of Nupe in Nigeria . Oxford University Press. NAERLS, (2026). Agricultural Performance Reports. Retrieved from https://naerls.gov.ng/reports/ (accessed 31 January, 2026) Ngwira, V. A. (2024). Evolving Definitions of War and Peace: A Historical Analysis of the Last Two Centuries. Mongolian Journal of International Affairs , 25(1), 69–82. https://doi.org/10.5564/mjia.v25i1.3794 Nnaeto, J. (2025). Farmer-Herder Conflict in the Middle Belt and Threat to Food Security in Nigeria: Exhuming Evidences from the Benue State Experience. Governance and Society Review , 4(1), 13-40. DOI: https://doi.org/10.32350/gsr.41.02 Nwankwo, C. F. (2025). Perceptions of injustices in the struggle for scarce critical lands: Farmer-herder conflict and violence escalation in the Benue-Nasarawa Borderland. World Development . 186. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2024.106824\ Nwankwo, C. F. (2023). The Moral Economy of the Agatu “Massacre”: Reterritorializing Farmer-Herder Relations. Society . DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12115-023-00860-x. Ochogwu, S. (2025). 17 LGs Facing Attacks in Benue – SEMA. (Daily Post News 18 October, 2025). Retrieved from https://dailypost.ng/2025/10/08/17-lgs-facing-attacks-in-benue-sema/ (accessed January 31, 2026) Ogbe, E.J. & Nyiayaan, K. (2022). Farmers-herders’ conflict and goal two (2) of the Sustainable Development Goals in Benue State. World Journal of Advanced Research and Reviews , 15(02), 058–068 DOI: https://doi.org/10.30574/wjarr.2022.15.2.0776 Okoli, F., & Addo, H. A. (2018). Implication of Fulani herders/Benue Farmers’ Crises on Food Security of Benue State of Nigeria. International Journal of Academic Multidisciplinary Research , 2(10), 16–23. Retrieved from http://ijeais.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/IJAMR181003.pdf\ Okoro, J. P. (2018). Herdsmen-Farmers’ Conflicts: Implication on National Development (Nigeria in Perspective). Paper Presented at the 1st International Conference of Social Sciences (ICOSS’2018) held at National Open University of Nigeria. 25th June, 2018. Retrieved from https://www.researchgate.net/publication/338980601_HERDSMEN-FARMERS'_CONFLICT_HERDSMEN_FARMERS'_CONFLICT_IMPLICATION_ON_NATIONAL_DEVELOPMENT_NIGERIA_IN_PERSPECTIVE \ Onuoha, F. & Ezirim, G. (2010). Climatic Change and National Security: Exploring the Conceptual and Empirical Connections in Nigeria. Journal of Sustainable Development in Africa , 12(4) 255-269. Retrieved from https://jsd-africa.com/Jsda/V12No4_Summer2010_B/PDF/Climate%20Change%20and%20National%20Security%20(Onuoha,%20Ezirim).pdf Olusadum, N. J. (2025). Farmer-herder conflict in the Middle Belt and threat to food security in Nigeria: Exhuming evidences from the Benue State experience. Governance and Society Review , 4(1), 13-39. https://doi.org/10.32350/gsr.41.02 Osagie, J.I. (2013). British Colonial Rule and Land Tenure in Esan. Canadian Social Science , 9(4), 138-146. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3968/j.css.1923669720130904.2600 Sidiqat, A., Adebayo, J., & Raza, H. & Dolapo, T. (2023). Farmers and Pastoralists Socio-Cultural Interaction: Mitigating Conflicts in Rural Communities for Livelihood Development in Nigeria. Journal of Global Innovations in Agricultural Sciences. 11(2). 97-104. DOI: https://doi.org/10.22194/JGIAS/23.1028 Sikiru, I., Munonye, J., Onyeneke, R., Adefalu, L., Olaolu, M., Azuamairo, G., & Uzoma, I., Njoku, C.L., Orji, J., Nneamaka, O., Inyang, P., & Emmanuel, A. (2021). Farmer-Herders Conflict and Climate Change: Response Strategies Needed in Nigeria and Other African Countries. The International Journal of Climate Change: Impacts and Responses. 14. 73-89. Retrieved from https://www.researchgate.net/publication/354804581_Farmer-Herders'_Conflict_and_Climate_Change_Response_Strategies_Needed_in_Nigeria_and_Other_African_Countries Sofik Handoyo, S. (2024). Public Governance and National Environmental Performance Nexus: Evidence from Cross-country Studies. Heliyon 10(23). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e40637 Smith, R. (2008). Kingdoms of the Yoruba (3rd ed.). University of Wisconsin Press. Ugo, C.O. (2025). Herder–Farmer Conflict and Internal Security Challenges in Benue State, Nigeria: An Appraisal of Government Responses, 2015–2025. Journal of Public Administration and Social Welfare Research, 10(10) 41-55. Retrieved from https://iiardjournals.org/get/JPASWR/VOL.%2010%20NO.%2010%202025/HERDER%20FARMER%20CONFLICT%20AND%20INTERNAL%2041-55.pdf Ugwueze, M.I., Omenma, J.T. & Okwueze, F.O. (2022). Land-Related Conflicts and the Nature of Government Responses in Africa: The Case of Farmer-Herder Crises in Nigeria. Soc 59,240–253. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12115-022-00685-0 Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8984422","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":598603261,"identity":"6422375b-b453-4296-b654-af0ac1495af9","order_by":0,"name":"Emmanuel Elijah","email":"data:image/png;base64,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","orcid":"","institution":"Nigerian Defence Academy","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Emmanuel","middleName":"","lastName":"Elijah","suffix":""},{"id":598603262,"identity":"da756fc9-b2d3-4991-86c3-08fff552866b","order_by":1,"name":"Angyu Daniel Awudu","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Federal University of Education, Zaria","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Angyu","middleName":"Daniel","lastName":"Awudu","suffix":""},{"id":598603264,"identity":"8fbd42e8-577f-48f9-aa69-037f24d9a30a","order_by":2,"name":"Abdullahi Ahmed Musa","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Federal University of Education, Zaria","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Abdullahi","middleName":"Ahmed","lastName":"Musa","suffix":""},{"id":598603265,"identity":"b889150b-a49b-4f8c-a785-da28ae1fde01","order_by":3,"name":"Hassana Bashir Mohammed","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Nigerian Defence Academy","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Hassana","middleName":"Bashir","lastName":"Mohammed","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2026-02-27 06:54:06","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8984422/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8984422/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":103728982,"identity":"90304e05-15d0-4b15-bf82-690808826132","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-03-02 08:51:14","extension":"jpg","order_by":1,"title":"Figure 1","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":41314,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eMap showing Benue state in Nigeria. Source: designed by authors\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"1.jpg","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8984422/v1/3d80b69b1e026ca7995614c3.jpg"},{"id":104400029,"identity":"c2a9e0bf-c4f2-4d80-b463-bc18d8033c42","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-03-11 12:08:35","extension":"jpg","order_by":2,"title":"Figure 2","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":65894,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eShows conflict fatalities from Benue farmer-herder conflict from 2013 to 2025. Source: plotted by authors with data obtained from Table 1\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"2.jpg","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8984422/v1/b39916044f3d163be7349b6d.jpg"},{"id":103728985,"identity":"323d5fce-c3b7-4908-a5eb-d6480a23c1d3","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-03-02 08:51:14","extension":"jpg","order_by":3,"title":"Figure 3","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":91203,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eshows agricultural production output in Benue State from 2013 to 2025. Source: plotted by authors with data obtained from Table 1\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"3.jpg","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8984422/v1/ab1639784614ed0a4fdf4082.jpg"},{"id":103728984,"identity":"4a6fdd13-1726-4bc0-a253-e0a75d15479f","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-03-02 08:51:14","extension":"jpg","order_by":4,"title":"Figure 4","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":73286,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eshows projected conflict fatalities from Benue farmer-herder conflict from 2026 to 2030. Source: plotted by authors with data obtained from Table 2\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"4.jpg","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8984422/v1/c968768cf5e53aa94458351b.jpg"},{"id":103728986,"identity":"6fe04ec2-b34d-4612-81de-4d94306575c7","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-03-02 08:51:14","extension":"jpg","order_by":5,"title":"Figure 5","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":73600,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eshows projected agricultural production output in Benue State from 2025 to 2030. Source: plotted by authors with data obtained from Table 2\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"5.jpg","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8984422/v1/400597a45d6d7aa1054b333d.jpg"},{"id":106401465,"identity":"4b60ce5d-842a-4ec2-bc65-9d04b42d7c79","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-04-08 09:00:01","extension":"pdf","order_by":0,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1597620,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"manuscript.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8984422/v1/2b48cf86-e930-4baf-ac7c-04ac0479cf22.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Food Security, Myth or Reality? Forecasting Farmer-herder Conflict and Agricultural Output using Multivariate Time Series Analysis in Benue State, Nigeria","fulltext":[{"header":"Introduction","content":"\u003cp\u003eThere is a general notion among scholars that peace is an important ingredient that guarantees a stable polity, which is required for economic prosperity. However, the farmer-herder conflict in Benue state represents one of the most pressing threats to both businesses and food security in the area (Olusadum, 2025; Alobo and Omenka, 2025). Researchers evaluating this problem noted that, the intractable nature of this conflict which has been going on for several years, not only threatened food security in the state, but has also deterred many farmers from carrying out their day-to-day farming activities due to the fear of attacks which usually lead to maiming, rape, destruction of cash crops, and even death (Aku, 2023; Olusadum, 2025). Recent scholarships have shown that these clashes are being orchestrated by competition for natural resources such as land, water, and forest vegetation, further amplified by ecological challenges and alterations in pastoral practices. For instance, different studies show how climate change and scarcity of resources exacerbate spatial susceptibilities, with Benue state identified as a major hot zone where land cover integrity and agricultural stability are being threatened (Abass and Nwankwo, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR1\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2020\u003c/span\u003e; Nwankwo, 2025). Nwankwo (2023) notes that these conflicts have metamorphosed beyond resource competition into deeper \u0026lsquo;reterritorialization\u0026rsquo; processes, where moral economies and identity narratives are used as justification for violence, as witnessed in analyses of massacres in areas like Agatu.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe result of these incidents not only had a profound implication for food security in Nigeria but also impedes food sovereignty, especially in Benue State. Numerous studies acknowledged how the conflict disrupted farming activities, reduced crop production, leading to hunger and starvation, destroyed properties worth billions of Naira, displaced households and even led to the death of many, which jeopardizes overall food security. In fact, studies revealed that over 15,000 persons have lost their lives to this menace since 2018, transforming what was once a momentary resource competition into persistent and bloody armed violence. As a result, Benue's role in national food production is undermined as farmlands are abandoned due to fear of violent attacks, a trend that has unfortunately led to reduced yields and increased dependency on external food sources (Apenda, 2016; Alobo and Omenka, 2025; Ioryue, 2024).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eNonetheless, several efforts have been made by the government in recent years to put an end to this quagmire. However, many have criticized their responses to these crises due to perceived inadequacies and complacency on their part. Consequently, these interventions have failed to put an end to the conflict, leading to a never-ending circle of violence (Ugwueze et al., 2022). For instance, policies such as the Open Grazing Prohibition and Ranches Establishment Law of 2017 have received heavy criticisms from various sides for their polarizing effects. While some conceive the policy as the only way to safeguard the interests of farmers, others view it as a violation of the constitutional rights of pastoralists to move around freely (Nwankwo, 2025). Meanwhile, scholars viewing the conflict from a broader lens of political economy see these clashes as being fueled by elitist interests for financial gains, and systemic inequalities, where inconsistent policies and weak institutions subtly encourage cycles of violence rather than paving the way for a lasting resolution to ensue (Awotokun et al., 2020). Ogbe and Nyiayaan (2022) further note that the crises jeopardize agrarian livelihoods and resource governance in the state, thereby undermining two key sustainable development goals namely, poverty reduction and zero hunger.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThough numerous studies provided different perspectives on the subject matter, significant gaps still persist in the literature, particularly the ones examined so far. For example, the existing body of knowledge (Apenda, 2016; Abass et al., 2020; Ogbe and Nyiayaan, 2022; Nwankwo, 2023; Aku, 2023; Ioryue, 2024; Olusadum, 2025) repeatedly frames food security as a major consequence of the conflicts without critically evaluating whether these threats to food security truly represent a validated reality or a myth that is exaggerated in national discourse. Also, to the best of our knowledge, current literature lacks predictive or forecasting approaches; they heavily relied on cross sectional and micro‑level designs to study the phenomenon. Hence, there is a lack of advanced quantitative modelling to reveal the causal effects and the future implications or otherwise of such attacks on agricultural output in Benue State, Nigeria.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eTo this end, this study seeks to bridge the above gaps by employing \u003cem\u003emultivariate time series analysis\u003c/em\u003e, combining \u003cem\u003eCompound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR)\u003c/em\u003e for trend estimation with an \u003cem\u003eAR(1) stabilization factor\u003c/em\u003e for forecasting under persistent conditions. This approach is particularly important to this study because it enables us to show trends of conflict fatalities and agricultural production from available secondary data over time, while forecasting into the future, thereby revealing the true nature of food security in Benue State.\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"Materials and Methods","content":"\u003cp\u003eUnlike many existing studies that applied cross‑sectional survey data and regression/SEM to evaluate the subject matter, our study utilized a quantitative multivariate time series model to study the phenomenon in Benue State. This method is important to the study because it captures current empirical trends that are verifiable fatalities and the projected impact on agricultural output. The study prioritized the use of secondary data sources. The choice for adopting secondary data was informed by the need to adhere to ethical considerations, given the sensitivity of the conflict, and also to protect the researchers from facing life-threatening risks associated with primary fieldwork in conflict-prone areas like Benue State, while taking advantage of existing reliable datasets for objectivity (Chong et al., 2023). Nonetheless, the following sections outline the procedures for data gathering and analysis.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cb\u003eData Gathering\u003c/b\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe study exclusively gathered data from secondary sources, blending both qualitative and quantitative materials. The qualitative aspect draws data from available policy documents, peer-reviewed articles and textbooks. On the other hand, the quantitative Time-series data on annual conflict fatalities were drawn from peer-reviewed journals and the online database of the Christian Association of Nigeria (CAN). While agricultural output for yam, rice, and cassava were obtained from the official annual reports of the National Agricultural Extension and Research Liaison Services (NAERLS). These data cover the period from 2013 to 2025 to capture pre- and post-escalation trends. In order to address data gaps or potential biases, such as underreporting in conflict datasets, the study cross-verified extracted data across various sources, so as to ensure that both conflict and agricultural data are in alignment. For initial organization, tables were used to compile the annual data points into a structured dataset spanning up to twelve years.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cb\u003eData Analysis and Presentation\u003c/b\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIn a bid to bridge the methodological gap in long-term quantitative modelling, we used a multivariate time series analysis for trend projection. According to Dan (2023), time series analysis is a quantitative framework that can be used to efficiently reveal whether the degree measured time series represent nonlinear variation through time. Consequently, this model is useful to our study because it allows us to show whether or not there is a causal relationship between conflict fatalities and agricultural production over a particular period in time. Nonetheless, the analytical procedure for achieving the aforementioned is as follows:\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cb\u003e1. We used Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) for Trend Estimation\u003c/b\u003e: The CAGR formula applied for the calculation of the average annual growth rate for both conflict fatalities and agricultural output over the historical period is as follows:\u003cdiv class=\"BlockQuote\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e \u003cb\u003eCAGR =\u003c/b\u003e \u003cspan class=\"InlineEquation\"\u003e\u003cspan class=\"mathinline\"\u003e\\(\\left[\\left(\\frac{\\varvec{V}\\varvec{t}}{\\varvec{V}0}\\right)\\frac{1}{\\varvec{t}}-1\\right]\\)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWhere (V\u003csub\u003et\u003c/sub\u003e) is the value at time t, V\u003csub\u003e0\u003c/sub\u003e is the initial value, and t is the number of periods. This helps to quantify the rate of growth or decline in conflict fatalities and agricultural outputs.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cb\u003e2. Persistence Factor was integrated\u003c/b\u003e: Taking into cognizance the intractable nature of the Benue state farmer-herder crisis, we applied a 0.95 stabilization factor to the time series projection. The persistence parameter (ρ) in the AR (1) specification for shocks was set at 0.95 because the value is a widely used econometric model for a phenomenon that has a high persistent level (Bruce \u0026amp; Donald, 2013). This choice is calibrated based on the half-life of shocks, calculated as:\u003cdiv id=\"Equa\" class=\"Equation\"\u003e\u003cdiv format=\"TEX\" class=\"mathdisplay\" id=\"FileID_Equa\" name=\"EquationSource\"\u003e\n$$\\varvec{h}=\\frac{\\varvec{I}\\varvec{n}\\left(0.5\\right)}{\\varvec{I}\\varvec{n}\\left(\\varvec{p}\\right)}$$\u003c/div\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFor ρ\u0026thinsp;=\u0026thinsp;0.95 and assuming annual data, this yields a half-life of approximately 13.5 years, reflecting empirical patterns in persistent conflict where structural intervention is absent, thereby enabling us to carry out realistic projections.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cb\u003e3. We carry out the Multivariate Forecasting\u003c/b\u003e: by examining the relationship between conflict intensity, measured by the rate of fatality, and agricultural output, which is measured by crop production volumes. The projection extends up to the year 2030 using Excel for preliminary analysis. Tables and graphs were used to present the time series data and forecast.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cb\u003eEthical Considerations\u003c/b\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eDue to the fact that the research used secondary data that are publicly available, including the non-involvement of human subjects, official clearance from the ethics committee was not required. However, the analysis and presentation of findings maintained great sensitivity to the human tragedy revealed in the fatality statistics.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch3\u003eEnvironmental Scarcity: Theoretical Adaptations\u003c/h3\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eGovernments across the world pursue peace and environmental stability for numerous reasons. One among many of these reasons is to enjoy economic prosperity and security in all ramifications. To achieve this, sovereign states often put in place frameworks through the establishment of dynamic agencies, ministries and parastatals to serve as a mechanism through which these dreams are achieved (Handayo, 2024; Iorkpen, 2022). Nonetheless, in the wake of the 21st Century, many nation-states have been plunged into a circle of never-ending conflicts, like the Benue farmer-herder conflict in Nigeria (Ngwira, 2024). Various theoretical frameworks and models have been proposed to understand and analyze why peace eludes many societies. Some of the theories include the political ecology theory, the political economy approach, and the frustration-aggression model, amongst others. However, this study adopts the Environmental Scarcity Theory as its fundamental analytical lens, as it is particularly suitable for this study, it links environmental variables (like rainfall or soil quality) specifically with social outcomes (conflict) and economic outputs (agricultural yield) over time.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Environmental Scarcity Theory was first conceived by the Canadian political scientist Thomas Homer-Dixon in 1994. The theory was further refined by him in 2010 in his seminal work, Environment, Scarcity, and Violence. The theory asserts that the scarcity of renewable resources, such as fresh water and fertile land, acts as a \"threat multiplier\" that metamorphoses into social upheaval. For him, three key sources fuel environmental scarcity: supply-induced scarcity (depletion of resources or degradation), demand-induced scarcity (high population growth), and systemic or structural scarcity (scarcity caused by unequal distribution of natural resources). These factors are interrelated and thus interact to produce what he termed \"resource capture\" by influential elites and the \"ecological marginalization\" of the less privileged, which eventually impede on the capacity of the society to adapt (Homer-Dixon, 2010).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAs one of the central theses of the theory, renewable resource scarcity is a key amplifier of social unrest in societies that are still at their nascent stage, which have no choice but to heavily depend on the environment for their sustenance. The theory further assumes that the intensity of conflict between different groups in a society increases as resources like arable land decrease in quality and quantity (Homer-Dixon \u0026amp; Blitt, 1998). It is also pertinent to point out that environmental scarcity militates against economic productivity, particularly agricultural output, which in turn impedes the capacity of the state to maintain law and order, thereby creating a feedback loop of an unending circle of poverty and violence (Homer-Dixon, 1999; Kahl, 2006).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIn relation to the farmer-herder conflict in Benue State, Nigeria, the theory crystalized how the dwindling fertile farming land and grazing area, amplified by rapid population growth and climate change, generated into violent antagonism between peasant farmers and nomadic herdsmen. The theory provided a better understanding of how the confrontations altered the livelihood of the inhabitants of the area, particularly in light of how the evolving conflict affected agricultural output, including their future outcomes, which is what this study focuses on. With the aid of a multivariate time series analysis, this study will empirically test the assertion of the theory and predict the frequency of conflict and the subsequent decline in crop yields in Benue's agrarian economy.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch3\u003eConceptual Analytical Framework: Food Security and Farmer-Herder Conflict\u003c/h3\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e \u003cb\u003eFood Security\u003c/b\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eHuman sustenance and longevity is largely dependent on food, as a result, its importance cannot be trivialized. The placement of food at the base of Abraham Maslow\u0026rsquo;s hierarchy of needs makes it a basic physiological necessity for survival. Consequently, one of the key pointers of economies that are developed is how well they can feed their citizens, while also maintaining a reasonable food reserve in anticipation for war, severe draught or any other eventualities (McLeod, 2025; Lawson-Lartego \u0026amp; Cohen, 2020).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eBe that as it may, Ayala and Meier (2017) define food security as a constitutional and legal duty of a state to sustain food consumption, including the control of price fluctuations and production. Meanwhile, Anthem (2025), sees food security as when people have unlimited access to enough food that is safe and nutritious for their healthy living. For them, an efficient food security situation has three basic scopes which include availability, accessibility and affordability. All three dimensions have a huge influence on a country's food security. Consistency in food supply must be maintained in terms of production and importation. Specifically, one cannot say there is food security if the less privileged cannot afford to buy enough food for themselves and their families. Hence, mechanisms need to be put in place by the state in order to make food affordable for all citizens regardless of their social and economic status in the society (Okoli \u0026amp; Addo, 2018). Today, citizens of many developed countries enjoy food security, while other parts of the world, particularly African countries, only know what food security means on paper due to challenges besetting the continent such as political instability, climate change, ethnic and religious conflicts and farmer-herder crisis.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cb\u003eConceptualizing Farmer-Herder Conflict\u003c/b\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eMany scholars have conceptualized farmer-herder crisis from various dimensions based on their understanding. For example, according to Okoro (2018), this concept can be defined as an acute dispute between subsistence peasant farmers and nomadic pastoralists who majorly engage in the rearing of livestock. Supporting this point of view, Adisa (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR2\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2012\u003c/span\u003e) sees the concept as a feud or a strong disagreement that is basically caused by competition over access to land between agriculturalists and pastoralists who share common boundaries or natural resources like a water body.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAjala (2020), gave a more elaborate interpretation to this concept. He conceived farmer-herder conflict to cover a wide spectrum of hostile interactions, which includes clashes of interest, politically motivated actions, ethnic rivalries, resource-based disputes, homicides, forced displacements, livestock theft, and organized cattle rustling network. This perspective views the farmer-herder conflict from a macroscopic socio-environmental shift, highlighting that Nigeria, particularly Benue state in the Middle Belt, has witnessed a remarkable growth in farming populations and arable land expansion in the wake of the early 21st century. These extensions have sadly led to the encroachment on traditional grazing areas. In areas that are mostly characterized by political volatility, official land tenure systems are usually not enough to curb situations such as this, thereby amplifying the problem (Muhammed et al., 2015). Compounded by climate change, pastoralists have been left with little or no choice but to alter their migratory paths in search of greener pastures for their herds. This has led to more scarcity of pastures and water sources (Onouha \u0026amp; Ezirim, 2010). Consequently, these adaptations have led to direct clashes with the native agrarian communities, leading to further escalation of hostilities.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eHarmonizing these scholarly perspectives shows many things in common. First, farmer-herder conflict manifests itself as an antagonism between two different groups fueled by conflicting interests and values, which is most noticeably fixated on grazing land and water resources within an agricultural economy. Beyond these, the dispute is shaped by different interconnected drivers, which include ethnic divisions, vested interests, resource scarcity, political lobbying, expulsions, destructive violence, and cattle rustling. The persistence of such dynamics undoubtedly does not just impede societal pillars that are deemed very important, but also affects key areas such as social harmony, economic viability, fight against poverty, agricultural output, and overall food security.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cb\u003eFarmer-Herder Conflict in Nigeria: The Genesis\u003c/b\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFarmers and pastoralists are crucial to the survival of any society because people must eat food; hence, they play an indispensable role in agricultural development (Sidiqat et al., 2023). Onuoha \u0026amp; Ezirim (2010) notes that, the nutritional needs of a country can only be met by farmers and herders, and as such, they contribute substantially to the food security of households. Nonetheless, the conflict between farmers and herdsmen in Benue state represents one of the complicated hostilities in the context of agrarian history. Tracing the origin of the conflict in Nigeria presents serious problems, yet perspectives from numerous scholars indicate that both farmers and herders, particularly the Fulani herdsmen, interacted before the colonial period. Historical archives show that this interaction was characterized by mutual interdependence and reliance, with occasional antagonism. Regulations governed by customs and communal accords effectively guide pastoralists\u0026rsquo; movements, weakening the potential for dispute to arise between both parties thus, relative peace was sustained (Smith, 2008; Bohannan, 1965).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe amplification of the crisis into a more complicated hostility is generally ascribed to disruptions that the British colonial administration introduced in the late 19th and early 20th centuries. The promotion of the cultivation of cash crops by the British colonial government, in addition to the redrawing and rigidification of land boundaries, coupled with the new tenure arrangements on communal territories imposed by the same British colonial government, seriously rattled already established traditional grazing routes and transhumance corridors. This development birthed enduring imbalances in access to land and water, laying the groundwork for hostilities that have persisted and spiraled into the crisis we see today, which has sadly led to hunger, displacement, rape, and destruction of properties and loss of many lives. (Anene et al., 2020; Osage, 2013; Nadel, 2018).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThese frictions were further exacerbated by Post-independence developments. Competition over limited fertile land, water, and grazing areas intensified due to accelerated urbanization, rapid demographic expansion, desertification, and environmental degradation fueled by industrial activities. Farmers constantly sought to protect areas already cultivated from incursion; meanwhile, herdsmen were left with no choice but to migrate southward to seek for greener pasture for their livestock due to the dwindling grazing zones in Nigeria's northern region. The Middle Belt, particularly Benue State, has naturally emerged as the focal point of this migration due to its rich soils, lush vegetation, and strategic position. All these factors made Benue state very appealing to herders yet indispensable to local agrarian communities in the state (Alpheaus, 2023; Sukiru et al., 2021; Nnaeto, 2025).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIn recent decades, the conflict has taken a progressively destructive and widespread dimension, often reported as catastrophic. This incident has been ranked as one of the deadliest security threats in the world, with some assessments labeling the Fulani herdsmen as the fourth deadliest militant group in the world. Within the past twenty years, the number of recorded deaths is in thousands. A particularly gory incident took place in Benue state in February 2016, when over 1,200 souls lost their lives to the violence, of which over 300 farmers were among the fatalities (Mikailu, 2016).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe persistent nature of these clashes has forced effected populations to resort to self-defence due to the fact that efforts aimed at curtailing this quagmire remain futile. In several instances, disgruntled youth and community hunters have taken it upon themselves to protect their localities against the aggressive actions of the Fulani herders by taking arms (Johnson and Okunola, 2017). Consistent patterns of dangerous behavior by herdsmen have been identified by several scholarly, investigative and documented accounts, leading to the escalation of the conflict. This escalation of the conflict has been extended beyond Benue state to other states like Plateau, Oyo, Adamawa, Ondo and Enugu, with high numbers of fatalities and casualties being recorded in Benue State due to persistent attacks led by the Fulani herdsmen (Duru, 2016). Consequently, this crisis highlights the need for responsive interventions by the government in addressing the root causes.\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"Results and Discussions","content":"\u003cp\u003e \u003cdiv class=\"gridtable\"\u003e\u003ctable float=\"Yes\" id=\"Tab1\" border=\"1\"\u003e \u003ccaption language=\"En\"\u003e \u003cdiv class=\"CaptionNumber\"\u003eTable 1\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv class=\"CaptionContent\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eshows annual time series data of conflict fatalities and agricultural output\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003c/caption\u003e \u003ccolgroup cols=\"5\"\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c1\" colnum=\"1\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"char\" char=\".\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c2\" colnum=\"2\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c3\" colnum=\"3\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c4\" colnum=\"4\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv 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\u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e2653.42\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e3862.41\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e537.42\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e2020\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e88\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e2881.66\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e3678.17\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e506.68\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e2021\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e2,131\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e3158.30\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e3731.87\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e517.65\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e2022\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e172\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e3249.14\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e3732.88\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e528.70\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e2023\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e104\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e2773.20\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e4,110.24\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e541.8\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e2024\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e906\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e2828.7\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e4204.8\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e559.1\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e2025\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e304\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eN/A\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eN/A\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eN/A\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003c/tbody\u003e \u003c/colgroup\u003e \u003ctfoot\u003e \u003ctr\u003e\u003ctd colspan=\"5\"\u003e\u003cb\u003eSource\u003c/b\u003e: Compiled by authors with data from NAERLS (2026); Ugo (2025); Julius and Luma (2024); Emmanuel (2023); CAN (2018)\u003c/td\u003e\u003c/tr\u003e \u003c/tfoot\u003e \u003c/table\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe data in Table \u003cspan refid=\"Tab1\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e1\u003c/span\u003e shows conflict intensity (measured by fatalities) and agricultural output (Yam and Cassava in million metric tons, Rice in thousand metric tons) from 2013 to 2025, with some missing values (N/A).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cb\u003eMultivariate Time Series Forecasting of Farmer-herder Conflict and Agricultural Output\u003c/b\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eTo forecast to 2030, we use the Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) for trend estimation on each series independently. A 0.95 stabilization factor is applied to moderate the raw CAGR, reducing projected volatility/growth by 5% (effective growth rate\u0026thinsp;=\u0026thinsp;CAGR \u0026times; 0.95), which assumes a conservative stabilization (due to potential policy interventions, saturation, or reduced escalation in conflict/agricultural trends).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cb\u003eStep-by-Step Calculation\u003c/b\u003e \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch3\u003e1. Trend Estimation Using Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR)\u003c/h3\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eCAGR was calculated for each series to estimate the historical trend over the 12 years (2013 to 2025). The formula is:\u003cdiv class=\"BlockQuote\"\u003e\u003cp\u003e \u003cb\u003eCAGR =\u003c/b\u003e \u003cspan class=\"InlineEquation\"\u003e\u003cspan class=\"mathinline\"\u003e\\(\\left[\\left(\\frac{\\varvec{V}\\varvec{t}}{\\varvec{V}0}\\right)\\frac{1}{\\varvec{t}}-1\\right]\\)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cstrong\u003eFatalities\u003c/strong\u003e \u003cp\u003eStart 161 (2013), End 304 (2025) \u0026rarr; Span\u0026thinsp;=\u0026thinsp;2025\u0026thinsp;\u0026minus;\u0026thinsp;2013\u0026thinsp;=\u0026thinsp;12 years\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCAGR\u0026thinsp;=\u0026thinsp;5.44% (or 0.0544)\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cstrong\u003eYam\u003c/strong\u003e \u003cp\u003eStart 1090.1 (2013), End 2828.7 (2024) \u0026rarr; Span\u0026thinsp;=\u0026thinsp;11 years\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCAGR\u0026thinsp;=\u0026thinsp;10%\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cstrong\u003eCassava\u003c/strong\u003e \u003cp\u003eStart 3763.8 (2013), End 4204.8 (2024) \u0026rarr; Span\u0026thinsp;=\u0026thinsp;11 years\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCAGR\u0026thinsp;=\u0026thinsp;1.24%\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cstrong\u003eRice\u003c/strong\u003e \u003cp\u003eStart 257.2 (2013), End 559.1 (2024) \u0026rarr; Span\u0026thinsp;=\u0026thinsp;11 years\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCAGR\u0026thinsp;=\u0026thinsp;8.07%\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch3\u003e2. Applying 0.95 stabilization factor to each CAGR (to dampen the trend for long-term projection):\u003c/h3\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eFatalities stabilized growth: 5.44% \u0026times; 0.95\u0026thinsp;=\u0026thinsp;5.17% or (0.0517)\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eYam stabilized growth: 10.00% \u0026times; 0.95\u0026thinsp;=\u0026thinsp;9.50% or (0.095)\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCassava stabilized growth: 1.24% \u0026times; 0.95\u0026thinsp;=\u0026thinsp;1.18% or (0.0118)\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eRice stabilized growth: 8.07% \u0026times; 0.95\u0026thinsp;=\u0026thinsp;7.67% or (0.0767)\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch3\u003e. \u003c/h3\u003e\n\u003cdiv class=\"Heading\"\u003e\u003cb\u003e3\u003c/b\u003e. \u003cb\u003eCalculating the Projected Values (2026\u0026ndash;2030)\u003c/b\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cb\u003eFatalities\u003c/b\u003e:\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch3\u003e2026: 304 × (1 + 0.0517) = 320\u003c/h3\u003e\n\n\u003ch3\u003e2027: 320 × (1 + 0.0517) = 336\u003c/h3\u003e\n\n\u003ch3\u003e2028: 336 × (1 + 0.0517) = 354\u003c/h3\u003e\n\n\u003ch3\u003e2029: 354 × (1 + 0.0517) = 372\u003c/h3\u003e\n\n\u003ch3\u003e2030: 372 × (1 + 0.0517) = 391\u003c/h3\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e \u003cb\u003eYam\u003c/b\u003e:\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch3\u003e2025: = 2828.7 × (1 + 0.095) = 3097.4 (interpolated base for continuity)\u003c/h3\u003e\n\n\u003ch3\u003e2026: 3097.4 × (1 + 0.095) = 3391.6\u003c/h3\u003e\n\n\u003ch3\u003e2027: 3391.6 × (1 + 0.095) = 3713.8\u003c/h3\u003e\n\n\u003ch3\u003e2028: 3713.8 × (1 + 0.095) = 4066.6\u003c/h3\u003e\n\n\u003ch3\u003e2029: 4066.6 × (1 + 0.095) = 4453.0\u003c/h3\u003e\n\n\u003ch3\u003e2030: 4453.0 × (1 + 0.095) = 4876.0\u003c/h3\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e \u003cb\u003eCassava\u003c/b\u003e:\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch3\u003e2025: = 4204.8 × (1 + 0.0118) = 4254.4\u003c/h3\u003e\n\n\u003ch3\u003e2026: 4254.4 × (1 + 0.0118) = 4304.6\u003c/h3\u003e\n\n\u003ch3\u003e2027: 4304.6 × (1 + 0.0118) = 4355.4\u003c/h3\u003e\n\n\u003ch3\u003e2028: 4355.4 × (1 + 0.0118) = 4406.8\u003c/h3\u003e\n\n\u003ch3\u003e2029: 4406.8 × (1 + 0.0118) = 4458.8\u003c/h3\u003e\n\n\u003ch3\u003e2030: 4458.8 × (1 + 0.0118) = 4511.5\u003c/h3\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e \u003cb\u003eRice\u003c/b\u003e \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch3\u003e2025: = 559.1 × (1 + 0.0767) = 602.0\u003c/h3\u003e\n\n\u003ch3\u003e2026: 602.0 × (1 + 0.0767) = 648.2\u003c/h3\u003e\n\n\u003ch3\u003e2027: 648.2 × (1 + 0.0767) = 697.9\u003c/h3\u003e\n\n\u003ch3\u003e2028: 697.9 × (1 + 0.0767) = 751.4\u003c/h3\u003e\n\n\u003ch3\u003e2029: 751.4 × (1 + 0.0767) = 809.1\u003c/h3\u003e\n\n\u003ch3\u003e2030: 809.1 × (1 + 0.0767) = 871.1\u003c/h3\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e \u003cdiv class=\"gridtable\"\u003e\u003ctable float=\"Yes\" id=\"Tab2\" border=\"1\"\u003e \u003ccaption language=\"En\"\u003e \u003cdiv class=\"CaptionNumber\"\u003eTable 2\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv class=\"CaptionContent\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eshows summary of forecasted fatalities and agricultural outputs from 2025\u0026ndash;2030\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003c/caption\u003e \u003ccolgroup cols=\"5\"\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c1\" colnum=\"1\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"char\" char=\".\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c2\" colnum=\"2\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"char\" char=\".\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c3\" colnum=\"3\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"char\" char=\".\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c4\" colnum=\"4\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"char\" char=\".\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c5\" colnum=\"5\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cthead\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eYear\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eFatalities\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eYam (Million metric tons)\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eCassava (Million metric tons)\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eRice (Thousand metric tons)\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003c/thead\u003e \u003ctbody\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e2025\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e3097.4\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e4254.4\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e602.0\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e2026\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e320\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e3391.6\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e4303.6\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e648.2\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e2027\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e336\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e3713.8\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e4355.4\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e697.9\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e2028\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e354\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e4066.6\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e4406.8\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e751.4\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e2029\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e372\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e4453.0\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e4458.8\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e809.1\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e2030\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e391\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e4876.0\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e4511.5\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e871.1\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003c/tbody\u003e \u003c/colgroup\u003e \u003ctfoot\u003e \u003ctr\u003e\u003ctd colspan=\"5\"\u003e\u003cb\u003eSource\u003c/b\u003e: Authors calculation using data from Table\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Tab1\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e1\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/td\u003e\u003c/tr\u003e \u003c/tfoot\u003e \u003c/table\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cb\u003eKey findings\u003c/b\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe results above show a composite, non-linear relationship between conflict fatalities and agricultural production: Significant spikes in fatalities, like in 2015 and 2021, did not instantly lead to the collapse in production volumes that same year. However, they correlate with slower growth rates in the subsequent 12\u0026ndash;24 months. Regardless of a 44% CAGR in fatalities, the CAGR of key crop outputs such as yam, cassava, and rice demonstrate sustained upward trajectories with stabilized CAGRs of 9.50%, 1.18%, and 7.67%, respectively. This implies that while conflict rages, the growth in agricultural production of key foods is currently outpacing the destructive impact of the conflict, suggesting that the intensity of conflict does not strongly correlate with agricultural output in this dataset.\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"Conclusion and Policy Recommendations","content":"\u003cp\u003eThis research has critically examined the extent to which the farmer-herder conflict in Benue State threatens food security in the state. With the aid of a multivariate time series econometric model, the study was able to critically evaluate numerical historical data as well as forecast the conflict intensity and agricultural output, including what consequences this holds for food security in the state. The key findings indicate an unexpected growth in the agricultural output, irrespective of a projected increase in conflict fatalities. Thus, important agricultural produce like Yam and Rice shows a very strong upward momentum, indicating a very weak relationship between conflict fatalities and agricultural output.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThese results antagonize the popular opinion in the existing body of literature, which holds a predominant view that the growing hostilities between farmers and herdsmen diminish crop yields and amplify food security in the state - a claim vehemently refuted by the findings in this study. Our quantitative time series approach shows that, while the human fatalities of the conflict is gory and catastrophic, such interruptions do not translate to the \"myth\" of decline in agricultural output as shown by our current macro-level data. Some of the possible reasons for this disparity could be that local farmers found a way to adapt by intensifying their farming activities on safe lands, adopting varieties of crops that are resilient or arranging for informal community-based protections to safeguard their farmlands from attacks, as well as receiving compensatory mechanisms like government subsidies that are not reported.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe unanticipated resilience of growth in agricultural output in the midst of growing conflict shows the non-linear nature of conflict-agriculture linkages, potentially influenced by lagged effects where a decline in production was witnessed 12\u0026ndash;24 months post-spike, but however recovered through systemic adjustments. This finding contributes to existing body of knowledge by bridging critical gaps: unlike existing studies that dominate the field, restricting their analysis to cross-sectional or micro-level approaches, our integration of CAGR with an AR (1) persistence factor (ρ\u0026thinsp;=\u0026thinsp;0.95) offers a predictive lens, thus corroborating the assertion of the environmental scarcity theory of resource-driven unrest while quantifying its limited causal imprint on agricultural outputs.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eOne of the limitations of this study is that, it greatly relied on data from secondary sources. This may lead to the introduction of biases from conflict fatalities that were underreported or incoherence in reporting agricultural data. Furthermore, while econometrically sound for persistent shocks, the use of a 0.95 stabilization factor may not account for sudden \"black swan\" amplifications in political instability. Consequently, future research should include more granular, primary data (if it is ethically feasible and safe) in order to validate or invalidate these projections, perhaps integrating variables like rainfall patterns or socioeconomic indicators through advanced models such as Vector Autoregression (VAR). In addition, micro-level spatial mapping should be employed by future studies to ascertain whether if farmers concentrate their agricultural activities in areas that are considered \"safe zones\", while deserted \"hot zones\" experience localized food security crises. Also, integrating climate-variable data, such as rainfall patterns and soil degradation rates, would provide a more robust test of the Environmental Scarcity Theory\u0026rsquo;s \"threat multiplier\" effect in Benue state.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eGiven these findings, several policy recommendations emerge. First, the government, in collaboration with Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs) and media houses, should promote public narratives on food security that are evidence-based and data-driven rather than exaggerated claims that affect public perceptions of agricultural level of food production in the country. Secondly, there is a need to enhance agricultural resilience through targeted interventions like investing in varieties of crops that are resilient, as well as consolidating existing community-based protection mechanisms. Finally, there is a need for policymakers to promote fair, equitable and inclusive land resource governance in such a way that it does not only favour agrarian communities, but also benefits the herders. This will go a long way in balancing the needs of warring parties, reducing competition and preventing further escalation of violence.\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"Declarations","content":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eFunding:\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe authors did not receive any financial support from any individual or organization for the submitted work.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eClinical Trial Number:\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eNot applicable\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eEthics, Consent to Participate, and Consent to Publish declarations:\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eNot applicable\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eCompeting interests:\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe authors declare that they have no competing interests\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eData and/or Code availability:\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe author confirms that all data generated or analyzed during this study are included in this article. Furthermore, the secondary data supporting the findings of this study is publicly available at the time of submission.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eAuthors\u0026rsquo; contribution statements:\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAll authors contributed to the study conception and design. Material preparation, data collection and analysis were performed by Emmanuel Elijah, Angyu Daniel Awudu, Abdullahi Ahmed Musa and Hassana Bishir Mohammed. The first draft of the manuscript was written by Emmanuel Elijah and all authors commented on previous versions of the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"References","content":"\u003cp\u003eAbass, I.M. \u0026amp; Nwankwo, C. F. (2020). Spatial Pattern of Climate Change and Farmer\u0026ndash;Herder Conflict Vulnerabilities in Nigeria. \u003cem\u003eGeoJournal\u003c/em\u003e. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10708-020-10223-2.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAdisa, R.S. 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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12115-022-00685-0\u003c/p\u003e"}],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":true,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":false,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":false,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Food security, Agricultural output, Benue State, Farmer-herder conflict, Multivariate Time Series, Environmental Scarcity Theory","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8984422/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8984422/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eThis study critically evaluates the correlation between farmer-herder conflict and food security in Benue State, Nigeria. Existing literature repeatedly views this conflict as a key determinant of food security in the state. Consequently, this research seeks to evaluate whether conflict fatalities significantly corroborate the perceived declining agricultural output. The research employed a multivariate time series analysis while relying on secondary data for conflict fatalities and agricultural output for yam, cassava, and rice from 2013 to 2025, with forecasts extending to 2030. The study integrates Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) to estimate the trend, with an AR(1) persistence factor (\u003cem\u003ep\u003c/em\u003e\u0026thinsp;=\u0026thinsp;0.95) for the forecast. Grounded in Environmental Scarcity Theory, this approach enables the quantification of causal imprints of persistent shocks on agricultural output. Contrary to the popular opinion in literature, results reveal sustained agricultural growth despite increasing conflict fatalities. Key agricultural produce, such as yam, cassava, and rice, demonstrate sustained upward trajectories with stabilized CAGRs of 9.50%, 1.18%, and 7.67%, even when the annual growth rate of conflict fatalities was at 5.44%. This suggests that the intensity of conflict does not strongly correlate with agricultural output in the dataset.The study concludes by emphasizing the need for policymakers to work with relevant stakeholders like media houses and Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs), to promote public narratives on food security that are evidence-based and data-driven rather than exaggerated claims that misrepresent Nigeria in the committee of nations.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Food Security, Myth or Reality? Forecasting Farmer-herder Conflict and Agricultural Output using Multivariate Time Series Analysis in Benue State, Nigeria","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2026-03-02 08:51:10","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8984422/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"6fdc72c6-3d3d-4758-84aa-a52996ea8da6","owner":[],"postedDate":"March 2nd, 2026","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-03-06T11:10:41+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2026-03-02 08:51:10","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-8984422","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-8984422","identity":"rs-8984422","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"XKTyCvWXoU3ODBz1xrDgd","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}