Emerging clean technologies: policy-driven cost reductions, implications and perspectives

Emerging clean technologies: policy-driven cost reductions, implications and perspectives | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Emerging clean technologies: policy-driven cost reductions, implications and perspectives Mohamed Atouife, Jesse Jenkins This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-4696747/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Hydrogen production from water electrolysis, direct air capture (DAC), and synthetic kerosene derived from hydrogen and CO2 ('e-kerosene') are expected to play an important role in global decarbonization efforts. So far, the economics of these nascent technologies hamper their market diffusion. However, a wave of recent policy support in the United States, Europe, China, and elsewhere is anticipated to drive their commercial liftoff and bring their costs down. To this end, we evaluate the potential cost reductions driven by policy-induced scale-up of these emerging technologies through 2030 using an experience curves approach accounting for both local and global learning effects. We then analyze the consequences of projected cost declines on the competitiveness of these nascent technologies compared to conventional fossil alternatives, where applicable, and highlight some of the tradeoffs associated with their expansion. Our findings indicate that enacted policies could lead to substantial capital cost reductions for electrolyzers. Nevertheless, electrolytic hydrogen production at $1-2/kg would still require some form of policy support. Given expected costs and experience curves, it is unlikely that liquid solvent DAC (L-DAC) scale-up will bring removal costs to stated targets of $100/tCO2, though a $200/tCO2 may eventually be within reach. We also underscore the importance of tackling methane leakage for natural gas-powered L-DAC: unmitigated leaks amplify net removal costs, exacerbate the investment requirements to reach targeted costs, and cast doubt on the technology's role in the clean energy transition. Lastly, despite reductions in electrolysis and L-DAC costs, e-kerosene remains considerably more expensive than fossil jet fuel. The economics of e-kerosene and the resources required for production raise questions about the fuel's ultimate viability as a decarbonization tool for aviation. Physical sciences/Energy science and technology/Energy modelling Scientific community and society/Energy and society/Energy economics Scientific community and society/Energy and society/Energy policy Emerging technologies technology policy electrolysis direct air capture e-kerosene experience curves climate mitigation. Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files FinalSupportinginformation.docx Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-4696747","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":328539090,"identity":"c4917f71-423e-40e8-9a21-94188cc10942","order_by":0,"name":"Mohamed Atouife","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA9klEQVRIiWNgGAWjYPACCX4G9gYGhgS4ABte5YxAtRKSDTwHIFp4iNTCINkgAbWCoBbdBubnDz62WUjwS7499uHhDjs5e/beAwwfyg7j1GJ2gM2wcWabhITk7LzkGYlnko15eM4lMM44h08Lg2Ezb5tEncHtHGOGxLYDiT0SOQbMvG34tLB/BGmRsL95BqylHqzlL14tPGBbJAwkeMBaEnhAWhjxaTnMUzhzxjkJCYkzeclALcmGPWfOGBzsOZeOW8vx9g0fPpTVSfC3nz3M+LPNTp69vcfwwY8ya5xaGJjhLB6E4AHc6lEAD2Elo2AUjIJRMDIBAM0sUNl2F/dHAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","orcid":"","institution":"Princeton University","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Mohamed","middleName":"","lastName":"Atouife","suffix":""},{"id":328539091,"identity":"c7a87c52-9343-4f29-ac89-8676d5435d3f","order_by":1,"name":"Jesse Jenkins","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9670-7793","institution":"Princeton University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Jesse","middleName":"","lastName":"Jenkins","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2024-07-06 12:35:13","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-4696747/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-4696747/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":61991788,"identity":"436e3742-140f-4433-8bc0-9a61b312670f","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-08-08 03:06:01","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":2608622,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Paperdraftfinalversion.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4696747/v1_covered_d4496f1c-61a3-44f0-9f12-70fdd6a4b84e.pdf"},{"id":61990350,"identity":"1ef29d35-aae3-48e4-aeeb-a20659a95f2d","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-08-08 02:41:53","extension":"docx","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":997332,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cbr\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"FinalSupportinginformation.docx","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4696747/v1/4018458492457d53f374654a.docx"}],"financialInterests":"There is \u003cb\u003eNO\u003c/b\u003e Competing Interest.","formattedTitle":"Emerging clean technologies: policy-driven cost reductions, implications and perspectives","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Emerging technologies, technology policy, electrolysis, direct air capture, e-kerosene, experience curves, climate mitigation.","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-4696747/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-4696747/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"Hydrogen production from water electrolysis, direct air capture (DAC), and synthetic kerosene derived from hydrogen and CO2 ('e-kerosene') are expected to play an important role in global decarbonization efforts. So far, the economics of these nascent technologies hamper their market diffusion. However, a wave of recent policy support in the United States, Europe, China, and elsewhere is anticipated to drive their commercial liftoff and bring their costs down. To this end, we evaluate the potential cost reductions driven by policy-induced scale-up of these emerging technologies through 2030 using an experience curves approach accounting for both local and global learning effects. We then analyze the consequences of projected cost declines on the competitiveness of these nascent technologies compared to conventional fossil alternatives, where applicable, and highlight some of the tradeoffs associated with their expansion. Our findings indicate that enacted policies could lead to substantial capital cost reductions for electrolyzers. Nevertheless, electrolytic hydrogen production at \\$1-2/kg would still require some form of policy support. Given expected costs and experience curves, it is unlikely that liquid solvent DAC (L-DAC) scale-up will bring removal costs to stated targets of $100/tCO2, though a $200/tCO2 may eventually be within reach. We also underscore the importance of tackling methane leakage for natural gas-powered L-DAC: unmitigated leaks amplify net removal costs, exacerbate the investment requirements to reach targeted costs, and cast doubt on the technology's role in the clean energy transition. Lastly, despite reductions in electrolysis and L-DAC costs, e-kerosene remains considerably more expensive than fossil jet fuel. 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