Trade and governance drive luxury seafood serial exploitation

Trade and governance drive luxury seafood serial exploitation | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Trade and governance drive luxury seafood serial exploitation Leonardo Feitosa, Christopher Free, Darcy Bradley, Jessica Gephart, and 1 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8681552/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Exploitation of species for luxury consumption has occurred for centuries. Luxury products are perceived as high quality status symbols, driving strong demand, low supply, and high prices. These features commonly fuel unregulated markets and harvest expansions to include new species and geographies. Yet, the drivers of such serial exploitation remain unknown. Here, we identify the drivers of serial exploitation of aquatic species for luxury trade, focusing on sharks for fins and teleosts for fish maw (gas bladders). We then predict which species and countries are likely to enter the luxury seafood market next. We find that the magnitude of bilateral trade and country-level rule of law are the strongest drivers of serial exploitation. We predict that nine species of sharks and 14 species of teleosts are likely to be luxury targets by 2030, providing actionable guidance for preemptive interventions to avoid future overexploitation. Biological sciences/Ecology/Conservation biology Biological sciences/Ecology/Environmental economics Shark fins Fish maw wildlife trade unregulated fisheries Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files Feitosaetalsupplementarymaterials.pdf Supplementary Information Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8681552","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":589504582,"identity":"5cf1c371-d181-4327-b718-c865f1cbbfea","order_by":0,"name":"Leonardo 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