An early Prediction Score System for severe bronchopulmonary dysplasia in preterm infants

Objective: : To develop and verify a risk score scale for early prediction of sBPD according to the 2018 NICHD diagnostic criteria of BPD in preterm infants with gestational age < 32 weeks. Methods: : 408 infants with gestational age<32 weeks admitted within 24 hours after birth from June 20,2018 to August 28,2020 were identified for the retrospective research using multinomial logistic regression. Then a scoring system was developed according to the sum of coefficient (β) and referring to the method of Sullivan etc. and validated in another equivalent 187 preterm infants from August 31,2020 to January14, 2022. Results: : The incidence of sBPD was 14.7% in the derivation cohort (n = 408) and 17.1% in the validation cohort (n =187). Multinomial logistic regression showed that ventilation time (h)(regression coefficient, β=0.011), gender (male)(β=-0.871), diagnosis of septicemia within 14 days after birth(β=1.098), difference-value between 2500g and birth weight (g) (β=0.002) were associated with sBPD. The scoring system ranged from 0 to 11 was further developed and the cut-off score of 6.5. The AUCs of the BPD risk scores were 0.842 and 0.790 in the derivation and validation cohort. Conclusion: : We developed a clinical score system associated with early perdition of sBPD among the preterm infants<32 weeks gestation.