Superfluid Angular Momentum Reservoir Effect in Pulsar Glitches and Crab Pulsar Glitch Time Prediction

Superfluid Angular Momentum Reservoir Effect in Pulsar Glitches and Crab Pulsar Glitch Time Prediction | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Superfluid Angular Momentum Reservoir Effect in Pulsar Glitches and Crab Pulsar Glitch Time Prediction Xiao-Ping Zheng, Zhu Peixin, Quan Cheng, Chen-Hui Niu, Erbil Gügercinoğlu This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8549599/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Pulsar glitches are generally viewed as stochastic events driven by sudden angular momentum transfer from the neutron star's superfluid interior to its crust. Except two peculiar pulsars with quasi-periodic glitches, this stochastic view has prevailed. Here, by clustering temporally proximate small glitches of the Crab pulsar, we uncover clear evidence of an underlying quasi-periodic modulation, challenging the paradigm of purely random behavior. Furthermore, our correlation analyses reveal a strong positive relationship between glitch cluster size and waiting time since the preceding clusters. These findings demonstrate the effect of angular momentum reservoir operating over long-term scales and enable the predictions of next glitching window. Remarkably, two minor glitches detected in July and August 2025, which align with our initial prediction made in June, should be confirmed as the onset of this predicted activity. Inspired by the initial success, we forecast the occurrence of a major glitch from now until August 2026, with possible glitch size up to a relative change in rotational frequency of $697.2 \times 10^{-9}$. Physically, the observed long-term quasi-periodicity and cluster size-waiting time correlations imply that each glitch event releases only a fraction of the stored superfluid angular momentum. This partial-release mechanism provides a unified framework for both stochastic and quasi-periodic glitch behaviors across different pulsars, underscoring the universality of the superfluid angular momentum reservoir effect. Physical sciences/Astronomy and planetary science Physical sciences/Physics/Astronomy and astrophysics/Compact astrophysical objects Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8549599","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":571515417,"identity":"d58a1e0a-2d4a-459e-83f6-ad7a0fa3c46e","order_by":0,"name":"Xiao-Ping Zheng","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAAs0lEQVRIiWNgGAWjYDACCSD+gMQmTgvjDJK1MPOQpEV+do/ZY5sauzyDA8wHb/Mw2OUR1MI451i6cc6x5GKDA2zJ1jwMycUEtTBLJB+Tzm04kLjhAI+ZNA/DgcQGQlrYJBLbpC3BWvi/EaeFB2QLI8QWNuK0SEikpRv2HEtOnHmYzdhyjkEyYS3yM3LMHvyosUvsO9788MabCjvCWkDegVDMIMKACPUILaNgFIyCUTAKcAEAiAo14dMEYg0AAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"","institution":"Institute of Astrophysics, Central China Normal University","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Xiao-Ping","middleName":"","lastName":"Zheng","suffix":""},{"id":571515420,"identity":"14e3a4cc-4255-40b4-b2f6-a6792abd8788","order_by":1,"name":"Zhu Peixin","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"School of Physics, Huazhong University of Science and Technology,","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Zhu","middleName":"","lastName":"Peixin","suffix":""},{"id":571515423,"identity":"064520f2-9afc-4cf8-bc00-c2b1e0811abd","order_by":2,"name":"Quan Cheng","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Institute of Astrophysics, Central China Normal University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Quan","middleName":"","lastName":"Cheng","suffix":""},{"id":571515428,"identity":"b227fcbb-1955-4fdf-9f3d-d9b114ba7321","order_by":3,"name":"Chen-Hui Niu","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Central China Normal University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Chen-Hui","middleName":"","lastName":"Niu","suffix":""},{"id":571515431,"identity":"87b9ac44-0db1-4e81-83df-e2417f2a3885","order_by":4,"name":"Erbil Gügercinoğlu","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Qingdao Binhai University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Erbil","middleName":"","lastName":"Gügercinoğlu","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2026-01-08 09:31:15","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8549599/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8549599/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":104919894,"identity":"509d3700-3511-4933-8567-11adeda164c5","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-03-18 17:11:49","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":284831,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Article File","description":"","filename":"crab.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8549599/v1_covered_7cdfe377-c3aa-43b4-9fe3-e5731d4c11d9.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"There is \u003cb\u003eNO\u003c/b\u003e Competing Interest.","formattedTitle":"Superfluid Angular Momentum Reservoir Effect in Pulsar Glitches and Crab Pulsar Glitch Time Prediction","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8549599/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8549599/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"Pulsar glitches are generally viewed as stochastic events driven by sudden angular momentum transfer from the neutron star's superfluid interior to its crust. Except two peculiar pulsars with quasi-periodic glitches, this stochastic view has prevailed. \r\nHere, by clustering temporally proximate small glitches of the Crab pulsar, we uncover clear evidence of an underlying quasi-periodic modulation, challenging the paradigm of purely random behavior. Furthermore, our correlation analyses reveal a strong positive relationship between glitch cluster size and waiting time since the preceding clusters.\r\nThese findings demonstrate the effect of angular momentum reservoir operating over long-term scales and enable the predictions of next glitching window. Remarkably, two minor glitches detected in July and August 2025, which align with our initial prediction made in June, should be confirmed as the onset of this predicted activity. Inspired by the initial success, we forecast the occurrence of a major glitch from now until August 2026, with possible glitch size up to a relative change in rotational frequency of $697.2 \\times 10^{-9}$.\r\nPhysically, the observed long-term quasi-periodicity and cluster size-waiting time correlations imply that each glitch event releases only a fraction of the stored superfluid angular momentum. This partial-release mechanism provides a unified framework for both stochastic and quasi-periodic glitch behaviors across different pulsars, underscoring the universality of the superfluid angular momentum reservoir effect.","manuscriptTitle":"Superfluid Angular Momentum Reservoir Effect in Pulsar Glitches and Crab Pulsar Glitch Time Prediction","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2026-02-10 04:09:22","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8549599/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"9f5a7c52-ca63-4213-b5c5-824fc3c7f30e","owner":[],"postedDate":"February 10th, 2026","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[{"id":60816930,"name":"Physical sciences/Astronomy and planetary science"},{"id":60816931,"name":"Physical sciences/Physics/Astronomy and astrophysics/Compact astrophysical objects"}],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-03-18T17:11:43+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2026-02-10 04:09:22","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-8549599","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-8549599","identity":"rs-8549599","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"XKTyCvWXoU3ODBz1xrDgd","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}