Integrating Fault Stability and Stress Analysis in Ethiopian Rift Geothermal Field

Integrating Fault Stability and Stress Analysis in Ethiopian Rift Geothermal Field | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Integrating Fault Stability and Stress Analysis in Ethiopian Rift Geothermal Field Roberto Rizzo, Derek Keir, Ameha Muluneh, Snorri Gudbrandsson, and 4 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6135925/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract The Tulu Moye geothermal field in the actively deforming Main Ethiopian Rift presents substantial potential for renewable energy production, but interactions between fault systems, hydrothermal fluids, and tectonic activity pose challenges for sustainable exploitation. Here we investigate fault stability and reactivation risks under current stress conditions and geothermal activities. By combining stress inversion of earthquake focal mechanisms with structural mapping, we assess fault reactivation potential through slip tendency, dilation tendency, and fracture susceptibility analyses. We evaluate critical pore pressures and stress magnitudes required for rock failure using Monte Carlo simulations. Results indicate that several faults are critically stressed, with modest pore pressure increase (3–5 MPa) potentially triggering fault slip and induced seismicity at 2 km depth. These findings align with observed microseismicity patterns linked to hydrothermal fluid flow, which enhances reservoir permeability but increases fault reactivation risks. This study provides a framework for assessing fault stability and managing risks in geothermal systems in tectonically active regions. Earth and environmental sciences/Solid Earth sciences/Geophysics Earth and environmental sciences/Natural hazards Earth and environmental sciences/Solid Earth sciences/Tectonics Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-6135925","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":481708592,"identity":"0b337d4d-a4cb-4dff-8f16-181422d77d8e","order_by":0,"name":"Roberto 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Here we investigate fault stability and reactivation risks under current stress conditions and geothermal activities. By combining stress inversion of earthquake focal mechanisms with structural mapping, we assess fault reactivation potential through slip tendency, dilation tendency, and fracture susceptibility analyses. We evaluate critical pore pressures and stress magnitudes required for rock failure using Monte Carlo simulations. Results indicate that several faults are critically stressed, with modest pore pressure increase (3\u0026ndash;5 MPa) potentially triggering fault slip and induced seismicity at 2 km depth. These findings align with observed microseismicity patterns linked to hydrothermal fluid flow, which enhances reservoir permeability but increases fault reactivation risks. 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