Banning new gas boilers as a hedge against the limited availability of renewable gas supply

Banning new gas boilers as a hedge against the limited availability of renewable gas supply | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Banning new gas boilers as a hedge against the limited availability of renewable gas supply Lucas VIVIER, Célia ESCRIBE This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-4504493/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 02 Jan, 2025 Read the published version in Nature Communications → Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract The low uptake of low-carbon heating systems across Europe has prompted authorities to consider more ambitious measures, including a complete ban on the installation of new fossil fuel boilers. In this analysis, we simulate the impacts of introducing a ban on gas boilers under 11,664 scenarios covering major uncertainties. Taking France as a case study, we find that heat pump adoption shifts gas use from heating demand to electricity generation, which is a more efficient use of low-carbon biogas from a whole-system perspective. Heat pump adoption therefore provides a hedge against short supply of low-carbon gas. We additionally find that widespread heat pump adoption is more effectively achieved through a ban on new gas boilers than through incentives under uncertainty. We therefore demonstrate that a ban is critical to meet carbon neutrality, while achieving a reduction in total system cost in over 75% of scenarios. Finally, we show that the implementation of the ban, when coupled with the existing subsidy framework, mitigates inequalities among owner-occupied households but generate adverse affect for those in privately rented homes. Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences/Climate-change mitigation Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences/Climate-change policy Scientific community and society/Energy and society/Energy policy climate change mitigation fossil fuel ban residential sector energy mix policy assessment Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 02 Jan, 2025 Read the published version in Nature Communications → Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-4504493","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":317044085,"identity":"16b8036a-a02c-4437-945c-4821ff894273","order_by":0,"name":"Lucas VIVIER","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA2klEQVRIiWNgGAWjYBACPijNw8AMJD+A2YwP8GphQ9bCOAPMZjYgSgtELQ9RWiSSH378wXBYxuA487HPNhV38vgbmNk+4NeSZizNw3CYx+AwW/LsnDPPiiUOMDPPwK8lh0GagSGNR7KZx5g5t+1w4gYG/sMEHJbD/PMHWAv/Z2bLfyAtzMyEtLBJ8DDY8PAz8zAzMzYQo4XnmZk1jwFIC5sxY8+xw8UShwlo4WdPfnzzR4WEPRv/4ccMP2oO5/G3N+PXAgFIEZHAQIwGFJBAqoZRMApGwSgY/gAAL4o13tCRSOIAAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0003-8779-8042","institution":"ENPC","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Lucas","middleName":"","lastName":"VIVIER","suffix":""},{"id":317044086,"identity":"916a5894-1963-447a-ab82-6c06e0b385f2","order_by":1,"name":"Célia ESCRIBE","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"CIRED","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Célia","middleName":"","lastName":"ESCRIBE","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2024-05-30 17:20:31","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-4504493/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-4504493/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[{"content":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-55427-z","type":"published","date":"2025-01-02T05:00:00+00:00"}],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":72949990,"identity":"16bf120c-6403-4cbb-98f3-4b7ce585c3c4","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-01-04 08:19:30","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":2114504,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"articlebangasnc.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4504493/v1_covered_6fea4763-2d1d-42b9-bbf9-18f45a785275.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"There is \u003cb\u003eNO\u003c/b\u003e Competing Interest.","formattedTitle":"Banning new gas boilers as a hedge against the limited availability of renewable gas supply","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":true,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"nature-portfolio","isNatureJournal":true,"hasQc":false,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Nature Portfolio","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":false,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"ejp","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"climate change mitigation, fossil fuel ban, residential sector, energy mix, policy assessment","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-4504493/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-4504493/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"The low uptake of low-carbon heating systems across Europe has prompted authorities to consider more ambitious measures, including a complete ban on the installation of new fossil fuel boilers. 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