Storm Surge Bathymetric Modeling and Risk Assessment in the United States Caribbean Territories

Storm Surge Bathymetric Modeling and Risk Assessment in the United States Caribbean Territories | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Storm Surge Bathymetric Modeling and Risk Assessment in the United States Caribbean Territories Lucas Rodriguez This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8089292/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Storm surge from hurricane phenomena are destructive events that inundate coastlines with elevated levels of stormwater, causing extensive damage to communities and infrastructure. With increasing hurricane and storm surge severity due to climate change, better understanding and mitigating storm surge impacts is critical for future disaster resilience. While the complex mechanisms of storm surge formation are generally understood, applications of this knowledge combined with geospatial analysis tailored to regional characteristics remain underexplored in disaster mitigation planning, particularly for disadvantaged communities.This paper identifies and analyzes a select number of regions across the historically underserved United States Caribbean territories using GIS analysis of NOAA datasets and Python scripts characterizing meteorological data from hurricanes to identify locations most vulnerable to coastal inundation. In conjunction with regional risk assessment, Population dynamics and demographics are then considered to determine how vulnerable select communities are in the event of severe storm surge effects, amounting to a comprehensive location-based ranking of relative storm surge risk. Our findings provide a novel assessment method of identifying both geographic and demographic vulnerabilities in coastal regions, despite some regions lacking sufficient data for an exhaustive evaluation. In establishing a robust methodological framework for coastal risk analysis, this paper highlights the need for more easily accessible global databases to contribute to informed, science-based disaster preparation strategies. Storm Surge Bathymetry Buoy Data Puerto Rico US Virgin Islands Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Supplementary Files Rodriguez2025Appendix.pdf Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8089292","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":551284905,"identity":"0416ac2d-ea5d-4067-a7c0-1647ce28391d","order_by":0,"name":"Lucas Rodriguez","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAAtklEQVRIiWNgGAWjYBACPiCWYDD4J8fPcAbIZCNCCxtEywFjyQbStDAcSNxwgIdYLdKHD96uKLiTuPng2QMMH8oOE6GFLy3Z8ozBM+NtB84lMM44R4wWHh4zyQYDZtltB84YMPO2kaCFcXMDUMtfErQcVtzAANTCSJwWtmTLBoM0Ywmgww72nEsnrIWfh/ngzYY/NnL8M84YPvhRZk1YCwJIHGA4QIp6kH0NJGoYBaNgFIyCEQMAZC85WexKkhkAAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"","institution":"Johns Hopkins University","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Lucas","middleName":"","lastName":"Rodriguez","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-11-11 17:38:22","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8089292/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8089292/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":97005187,"identity":"6a8b90e6-c72c-4ad9-baa8-57505e786d4b","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-11-28 14:33:53","extension":"json","order_by":0,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":4275,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"a7327bdbaffc41ab9dba3dd8b8c2e33f.json","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8089292/v1/3f3c050c8eb311f819e68571.json"},{"id":101880396,"identity":"d66c14b3-d2e4-427a-8cff-2f5e0195cc0e","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-02-04 14:59:24","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":78040794,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Rodriguez2025.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8089292/v1_covered_aa562388-3f94-45e0-afc7-f07f3a748148.pdf"},{"id":97005188,"identity":"58e97e3a-faa0-4e50-8942-8fcaa66cdb1c","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-11-28 14:33:57","extension":"pdf","order_by":0,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":122038548,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Rodriguez2025Appendix.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8089292/v1/4023893e273d7543911d47ed.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Storm Surge Bathymetric Modeling and Risk Assessment in the United States Caribbean Territories","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Storm Surge, Bathymetry, Buoy Data, Puerto Rico, US Virgin Islands","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8089292/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8089292/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eStorm surge from hurricane phenomena are destructive events that inundate coastlines with elevated levels of stormwater, causing extensive damage to communities and infrastructure. 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