Cash Transfers and Fertility: Evidence from an Ultra-Low Birth Rate Society

Cash Transfers and Fertility: Evidence from an Ultra-Low Birth Rate Society | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Cash Transfers and Fertility: Evidence from an Ultra-Low Birth Rate Society Kanghyock Ko, Hwanoong Lee This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-9274371/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted 7 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract This study examines the effects of cash transfers on fertility in Korea, which has the world’s lowest fertility rate. Unlike several previous studies, we document robust evidence of the limited role of cash transfers in encouraging conception using population-level birth certificate data. As a possible explanation, we propose that the marginal effects of lowering childcare costs can diminish as the childcare burden increases. Consistent with this conjecture, we document little evidence that the cash transfers significantly altered household consumption expenditure nor labor supply, based on household expenditure survey data. JEL codes: I38, J13, J18, D10 Cash transfers Fertility Conception Pronatalist policy South Korea Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted Reviews received at journal 11 May, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 30 Apr, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 28 Apr, 2026 Reviewers invited by journal 20 Apr, 2026 Editor assigned by journal 02 Apr, 2026 Submission checks completed at journal 02 Apr, 2026 First submitted to journal 31 Mar, 2026 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-9274371","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":616889978,"identity":"5adaa2a7-1eaa-43a0-8780-18598c7fdeb0","order_by":0,"name":"Kanghyock Ko","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Korea University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Kanghyock","middleName":"","lastName":"Ko","suffix":""},{"id":616889984,"identity":"2e5b5a1e-2bf1-434f-a59d-f4b7717edcad","order_by":1,"name":"Hwanoong Lee","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAAzElEQVRIiWNgGAWjYBACAwbmBgaGigQGBh4GZrCIBGEtjEAtZ0jWwthGihZz9sbGBx/npcmZ85wxNmCosWOQnH0AvxbLnoPNhjO35Rhb9vYYJzAcS2aQ5ksg4LAbiW3SvNsqEjec5zE+wMB2gEGOh5BfbiS2//47B6blH3Fa2pgZG3ISN5wFOoyx7QCDNEEtZw42S/YcSzM2OHOs2CCxL5lHsoeQluPNBz/8qEmWMziTvFniwzc7OYkzBLSgggRQ9IyCUTAKRsEooBwAACBXQLECTAgdAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","orcid":"","institution":"Konkuk University","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Hwanoong","middleName":"","lastName":"Lee","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2026-03-31 04:38:34","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9274371/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9274371/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":106403897,"identity":"071df5b1-134c-4ad1-b937-da725a792c9e","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-04-08 09:15:10","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1620784,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"ManuscriptREHO.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-9274371/v1_covered_482f4165-4242-478f-bddb-47097eb7603d.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Cash Transfers and Fertility: Evidence from an Ultra-Low Birth Rate Society","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"review-of-economics-of-the-household","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"reho","sideBox":"Learn more about [Review of Economics of the Household](http://link.springer.com/journal/11150)","snPcode":"11150","submissionUrl":"https://submission.nature.com/new-submission/11150/3","title":"Review of Economics of the Household","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"em","reportingPortfolio":"Springer Hybrid","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"Cash transfers, Fertility, Conception, Pronatalist policy, South Korea","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9274371/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9274371/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eThis study examines the effects of cash transfers on fertility in Korea, which has the world’s lowest fertility rate. 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