Long-Run Macroeconomic Effects Of Shifting Temperature Anomaly Distributions

Long-Run Macroeconomic Effects Of Shifting Temperature Anomaly Distributions | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Long-Run Macroeconomic Effects Of Shifting Temperature Anomaly Distributions David Joseph Winter, Manuela Kiehl, Matthew de Reding This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-5647610/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted 4 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract This paper uses panel data on 201 countries from 1960 to 2019 to quantify the long-run macroeconomic effects of climate change-induced shifts in temperature anomaly distributions. We find that rising average temperature anomalies from historical norms caused by global warming have negative, non-linear impacts on GDP growth. By additionally accounting for the full temperature anomaly distribution (volatility, skewness, and kurtosis) across a geospatial grid and across time, our approach is a methodological step towards quantifying the macroeconomic impacts of broader climate change. Projected damages are far greater than estimated in previous studies that have focussed on quantifying the macroeconomic impacts of average temperature levels or volatility/extremes only. We find that 2 to 2.6°C of warming by 2050 could reduce global output by 20 to 40% compared to a scenario where temperatures are held flat at current levels, while warming of 4-5°C by 2100 could lead to more severe damages, consistent with scientific research on mass extinction thresholds and tipping points. Full Text Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted Reviewers agreed at journal 13 Jan, 2025 Reviewers invited by journal 13 Jan, 2025 Editor assigned by journal 27 Dec, 2024 First submitted to journal 20 Dec, 2024 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. 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