Detectability of post-net zero climate changes and the effects of delay in emissions cessation

Detectability of post-net zero climate changes and the effects of delay in emissions cessation | Authorea try { document.documentElement.classList.add('js'); } catch (e) { } var _gaq = _gaq || []; _gaq.push(['_setAccount', 'G-8VDV14Y67G']); _gaq.push(['_trackPageview']); (function() { var ga = document.createElement('script'); ga.type = 'text/javascript'; ga.async = true; ga.src = ('https:' == document.location.protocol ? 'https://ssl' : 'http://www') + '.google-analytics.com/ga.js'; var s = document.getElementsByTagName('script')[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(ga, s); })(); Skip to main content Preprints Collections Wiley Open Research IET Open Research Ecological Society of Japan All Collections About About Authorea FAQs Contact Us Quick Search anywhere Search for preprint articles, keywords, etc. Search Search ADVANCED SEARCH SCROLL This is a preprint and has not been peer reviewed. Data may be preliminary. 11 February 2025 V1 Latest version Share on Detectability of post-net zero climate changes and the effects of delay in emissions cessation Authors : Andrew David King 0000-0001-9006-5745 [email protected] , Eduardo Alastrué de Asenjo 0000-0002-9720-0257 , Amanda Maycock 0000-0002-6614-1127 , Tilo Ziehn 0000-0001-9873-9775 , Alexander R Borowiak 0000-0002-0499-7800 , Spencer Clark 0009-0009-3200-5707 , and Nicola Maher 0000-0003-3922-9833 Authors Info & Affiliations https://doi.org/10.22541/au.173930365.54563852/v1 Published Earth's Future Version of record Peer review timeline 404 views 169 downloads Contents Abstract Supplementary Material Information & Authors Metrics & Citations View Options References Figures Tables Media Share Abstract There is growing interest in how the climate would change under net zero carbon dioxide emissions pathways as many nations aim to reach net zero in coming decades. In today's rapidly warming world, many changes in the climate are detectable, even in the presence of internal variability, but whether climate changes under net zero would be detectable is less well understood. Here, we use a bespoke set of 1000-year-long net zero carbon dioxide emissions simulations branching from different points in the 21st century to examine the detectability of large-scale and local climate changes as time passes under net zero emissions. We find that many changes under net zero become detectable within centuries. While local changes and changes in extremes are more challenging to detect, warming in the Southern Hemisphere and cooling in the Northern Hemisphere becomes detectable at many locations within a few centuries under net zero emissions. We also study detectability of differences in climate indices due to delays in achieving emissions cessation. We find that for global mean surface temperature and other large-scale indices, such as Antarctic and Arctic sea ice extent, the effects of even a five-year delay in emissions cessation are detectable. Short delays in emissions cessation result in significantly different local temperatures for most of the planet, and most of the global population. The long simulations used here help with identifying local climate change signals. Multi-model frameworks will be useful to examine confidence in these changes and ultimately improve understanding of post-net zero climate changes. Supplementary Material File (1023194_0_merged_1738477407.pdf) Download 37.17 MB File (detectability_postnz_draft_si.pdf) Download 1.44 MB File (detectability_postnz_draft_v11.docx) Download 1.43 MB Information & Authors Information Version history V1 Version 1 11 February 2025 Peer review timeline Published Earth's Future Version of Record 4 Dec 2025 Published Copyright This work is licensed under a Non Exclusive No Reuse License. Keywords atmospheric sciences climate change climate stabilization climate variability climatology (global change) detection and attribution earth system modelling net zero radioastronomy Authors Affiliations Andrew David King 0000-0001-9006-5745 [email protected] University of Melbourne View all articles by this author Eduardo Alastrué de Asenjo 0000-0002-9720-0257 Max-Planck-Institut fur Meteorologie View all articles by this author Amanda Maycock 0000-0002-6614-1127 University of Leeds View all articles by this author Tilo Ziehn 0000-0001-9873-9775 Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) View all articles by this author Alexander R Borowiak 0000-0002-0499-7800 The University of Melbourne School of Geography Earth and Atmospheric Sciences View all articles by this author Spencer Clark 0009-0009-3200-5707 The University of Melbourne Research View all articles by this author Nicola Maher 0000-0003-3922-9833 Australian National University, Canberra View all articles by this author Funding Information Australian Research Council CE230100012 Andrew King and Nicola Maher Metrics & Citations Metrics Article Usage 404 views 169 downloads .FvxKWukQNSOunydq8rnd { width: 100px; } Citations Download citation Andrew David King, Eduardo Alastrué de Asenjo, Amanda Maycock, et al. Detectability of post-net zero climate changes and the effects of delay in emissions cessation. Authorea . 11 February 2025. DOI: https://doi.org/10.22541/au.173930365.54563852/v1 If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download. For more information or tips please see 'Downloading to a citation manager' in the Help menu . Format Please select one from the list RIS (ProCite, Reference Manager) EndNote BibTex Medlars RefWorks Direct import Tips for downloading citations document.getElementById('citMgrHelpLink').addEventListener('click', function() { popupHelp(this.href); return false; }); $(".js__slcInclude").on("change", function(e){ if ($(this).val() == 'refworks') $('#direct').prop("checked", false); $('#direct').prop("disabled", ($(this).val() == 'refworks')); }); View Options View options PDF View PDF Figures Tables Media Share Share Share article link Copy Link Copied! Copying failed. Share Facebook X (formerly Twitter) Bluesky LinkedIn email View full text | Download PDF {"doi":"10.22541/au.173930365.54563852/v1","type":"Article"} Now Reading: Share Figures Tables Close figure viewer Back to article Figure title goes here Change zoom level Go to figure location within the article Download figure Toggle share panel Toggle share panel Share Toggle information panel Toggle information panel Go to previous graphic Go to next graphic Go to previous table Go to next table All figures All tables View all material View all material xrefBack.goTo xrefBack.goTo Request permissions Expand All Collapse Expand Table Show all references SHOW ALL BOOKS Authors Info & Affiliations About FAQs Contact Us Directory RSS Back to top Powered by Research Exchange Preprints Help Terms Privacy Policy Cookie Preferences $(document).ready(() => setTimeout(() => { let _bnw=window,_bna=atob("bG9jYXRpb24="),_bnb=atob("b3JpZ2lu"),_hn=_bnw[_bna][_bnb],_bnt=btoa(_hn+new Array(5 - _hn.length % 4).join(" ")); $.get("/resource/lodash?t="+_bnt); },4000)); (function(){function c(){var b=a.contentDocument||a.contentWindow.document;if(b){var d=b.createElement('script');d.innerHTML="window.__CF$cv$params={r:'a024a612aee5df94',t:'MTc3OTg4MTAxOQ=='};var a=document.createElement('script');a.src='/cdn-cgi/challenge-platform/scripts/jsd/main.js';document.getElementsByTagName('head')[0].appendChild(a);";b.getElementsByTagName('head')[0].appendChild(d)}}if(document.body){var a=document.createElement('iframe');a.height=1;a.width=1;a.style.position='absolute';a.style.top=0;a.style.left=0;a.style.border='none';a.style.visibility='hidden';document.body.appendChild(a);if('loading'!==document.readyState)c();else if(window.addEventListener)document.addEventListener('DOMContentLoaded',c);else{var e=document.onreadystatechange||function(){};document.onreadystatechange=function(b){e(b);'loading'!==document.readyState&&(document.onreadystatechange=e,c())}}}})();