Transmissibility and control of tuberculosis: a modeling study based on four outbreaks in China

Transmissibility and control of tuberculosis: a modeling study based on four outbreaks in China | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Transmissibility and control of tuberculosis: a modeling study based on four outbreaks in China Chan Liu, Meng Yang, Qiuping Chen, Jing Jia, Zeyu Zhao, Jingwen Xu, and 5 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-1546915/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Background: As the second largest burden country, China displays a high incidence of tuberculosis with frequent occurrence of outbreaks. Summarizing and analyzing the characteristics of tuberculosis outbreaks can help to quantify the transmissibility and to evaluate the effectiveness of intervention measures, providing thus technical support for prevention and control. Methods: We collected data on 4 tuberculosis outbreaks in Changsha city, Hunan Province. Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model was used to fit collected data and calculate transmissibility. Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Quarantined-Recovered (SEIQR) model was used to evaluate the effect of isolation. Effective reproduction number and prevalence rate were used to quantify the transmissibility of tuberculosis. Results: The number of male patients was higher than that of female patients in 4 outbreaks. Most student cases were distributed in high grades of high school and universities. The R eff of the 4 outbreaks were 15.22, 12.87, 13.47 and 2.70, respectively. Isolating 100% of the patients at first month could reduce the number of cases by 96.45%, 96.36%, 97.08% and 100.00%, respectively. The median R eff of 4 outbreaks in Changsha city was 13.17 (IQR 10.33-13.91). Conclusions: Early detection and isolation of cases are effective methods of prevention of tuberculosis outbreaks. Tuberculosis outbreak Transmissibility Transmission dynamics model SEIR model SEIQR model Figures Figure 1 Figure 2 Figure 3 Figure 4 Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Supplementary Files Additionalfile1.docx Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About In Review Editorial Policies Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-1546915","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":100306054,"identity":"61df87d1-41df-4f5a-a21c-520297ca0202","order_by":0,"name":"Chan Liu","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Xiamen University","correspondingAuthor":false,"submittingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Chan","middleName":"","lastName":"Liu","suffix":""},{"id":100306056,"identity":"3eb11196-a298-4d8e-81fa-8eeddb654eb6","order_by":1,"name":"Meng Yang","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Xiamen University","correspondingAuthor":false,"submittingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Meng","middleName":"","lastName":"Yang","suffix":""},{"id":100306057,"identity":"7c49f4c2-5fd0-44db-95d1-baa269841ce4","order_by":2,"name":"Qiuping Chen","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Xiamen University","correspondingAuthor":false,"submittingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Qiuping","middleName":"","lastName":"Chen","suffix":""},{"id":100306058,"identity":"e8fc240a-7977-4023-b8d3-8a9399cfee5c","order_by":3,"name":"Jing Jia","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Qingdao Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention","correspondingAuthor":false,"submittingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Jing","middleName":"","lastName":"Jia","suffix":""},{"id":100306059,"identity":"920eff42-2bb2-4976-a00b-76fa5f6467e3","order_by":4,"name":"Zeyu Zhao","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Xiamen University","correspondingAuthor":false,"submittingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Zeyu","middleName":"","lastName":"Zhao","suffix":""},{"id":100306060,"identity":"b1c9274f-c86f-4d5d-afd0-8d3132b690e2","order_by":5,"name":"Jingwen Xu","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Xiamen University","correspondingAuthor":false,"submittingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Jingwen","middleName":"","lastName":"Xu","suffix":""},{"id":100306061,"identity":"18f0df9d-f693-4d55-bb2b-1578760e2c90","order_by":6,"name":"Benhua Zhao","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Xiamen University","correspondingAuthor":false,"submittingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Benhua","middleName":"","lastName":"Zhao","suffix":""},{"id":100306062,"identity":"6299ec07-d6fb-4639-a403-f571dce0549d","order_by":7,"name":"Yanhua Su","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Xiamen University","correspondingAuthor":false,"submittingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Yanhua","middleName":"","lastName":"Su","suffix":""},{"id":100306063,"identity":"cbc6888d-5bb8-4dd1-9326-d58bebcce87e","order_by":8,"name":"Laurent Gavotte","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Espace-Dev, Université de Montpellier, Montpellier","correspondingAuthor":false,"submittingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Laurent","middleName":"","lastName":"Gavotte","suffix":""},{"id":100306065,"identity":"9d8dba62-f53a-4826-9e8e-e2d26593a617","order_by":9,"name":"Roger Frutos","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"CIRAD, URM 17, Intertryp, Montpellier","correspondingAuthor":false,"submittingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Roger","middleName":"","lastName":"Frutos","suffix":""},{"id":100306067,"identity":"80b0fc25-f453-4e3c-bf34-1e8afcbc4e2c","order_by":10,"name":"Tianmu Chen","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAAr0lEQVRIiWNgGAWjYBACNv7mgw8+VNjU8xOthU/iWLLhjDNpCZINxGqRY8hRk+ZtOZRgcIBohzGcYZOc2XAgz/h48gaGHxXbiNDC3HvY4uOOO8VmZ54VMPacuU2MLecSb84884xx240cA2bGNqK05BhI87YdZtw8gwQtRiAtiRskiNYCDWRjCaBfDhLlF/l+SFTK8bcnb3zwo4IILUiAhKhBaCFVxygYBaNgFIwQAAC4rUMRfdRyFAAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==","orcid":"","institution":"Xiamen University","correspondingAuthor":true,"submittingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Tianmu","middleName":"","lastName":"Chen","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2022-04-11 16:14:18","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-1546915/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-1546915/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":20746866,"identity":"08e1e472-257d-48f9-bec4-72116810ce46","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2022-04-25 21:14:44","extension":"png","order_by":1,"title":"Figure 1","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":1724292,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eThe frame of transmission dynamic model (a. SEIR model, b. SEIQR model).\u0026nbsp;\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"Fig.1.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-1546915/v1/c14b678d6d7fa3959ef0d960.png"},{"id":20746261,"identity":"6db0e4b0-b757-4bac-a711-061c166439bb","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2022-04-25 21:04:44","extension":"png","order_by":2,"title":"Figure 2","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":987729,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eImplementation of intervention measures and number of cases of four tuberculosis outbreaks in Changsha city.\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"Fig.2.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-1546915/v1/31906daac4de80714e1c7bac.png"},{"id":20746622,"identity":"9267835b-9089-4877-8717-316902841302","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2022-04-25 21:09:44","extension":"png","order_by":3,"title":"Figure 3","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":2038809,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eResult of model fitting and prediction of four tuberculosis outbreaks in Changsha city.\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"Fig.3.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-1546915/v1/c126d0e81ff8d3626b52b2ed.png"},{"id":20746264,"identity":"44482b72-daeb-4cbc-bc99-ba8d5ddb3fc6","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2022-04-25 21:04:44","extension":"png","order_by":4,"title":"Figure 4","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":249134,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eHeat map of prevalence rate under different isolation ratios and diverse isolate-time of four tuberculosis outbreaks in Changsha city.\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"Fig.4.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-1546915/v1/7fa9fc219b3a8c0536badce3.png"},{"id":28727635,"identity":"3bd1b056-bfa8-4f44-abdc-c3519a1b2283","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2022-11-07 04:14:44","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":752111,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Manuscriptrevised.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-1546915/v1_covered.pdf"},{"id":20746867,"identity":"f04ce9ed-05ba-475e-9c02-13d2ef937361","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2022-04-25 21:14:51","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":462693,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Manuscriptrevised.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-1546915/v1_covered.pdf"},{"id":20746265,"identity":"3e9c9efb-8d0a-460b-bdb9-eb8624996af9","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2022-04-25 21:04:44","extension":"docx","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":564237,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Additionalfile1.docx","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-1546915/v1/2ad7d710316d1f6e5287b6e6.docx"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Transmissibility and control of tuberculosis: a modeling study based on four outbreaks in China","fulltext":[{"header":"Full Text","content":"This preprint is available for \u003ca href='/article/rs-1546915/latest.pdf' target='_blank'\u003edownload as a PDF\u003c/a\u003e."}],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":false,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Tuberculosis outbreak, Transmissibility, Transmission dynamics model, SEIR model, SEIQR model","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-1546915/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-1546915/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eBackground:\u003c/strong\u003e As the second largest burden country, China displays a high incidence of tuberculosis with frequent occurrence of outbreaks. Summarizing and analyzing the characteristics of tuberculosis outbreaks can help to quantify the transmissibility and to evaluate the effectiveness of intervention measures, providing thus technical support for prevention and control. \u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eMethods: \u003c/strong\u003eWe collected data on 4 tuberculosis outbreaks in Changsha city, Hunan Province. Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model was used to fit collected data and calculate transmissibility. Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Quarantined-Recovered (SEIQR) model was used to evaluate the effect of isolation. Effective reproduction number and prevalence rate were used to quantify the transmissibility of tuberculosis.\u003cstrong\u003e \u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eResults: \u003c/strong\u003eThe number of male patients was higher than that of female patients in 4 outbreaks. Most student cases were distributed in high grades of high school and universities. The \u003cem\u003eR\u003c/em\u003e\u003csub\u003eeff\u003c/sub\u003e of the 4 outbreaks were 15.22, 12.87, 13.47 and 2.70, respectively. Isolating 100% of the patients at first month could reduce the number of cases by 96.45%, 96.36%, 97.08% and 100.00%, respectively. The median \u003cem\u003eR\u003c/em\u003e\u003csub\u003eeff\u003c/sub\u003e of 4 outbreaks in Changsha city was 13.17 (IQR 10.33-13.91). \u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eConclusions:\u003c/strong\u003e Early detection and isolation of cases are effective methods of prevention of tuberculosis outbreaks.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Transmissibility and control of tuberculosis: a modeling study based on four outbreaks in China","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2022-04-25 21:04:42","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-1546915/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"203b323e-0e1e-4e2d-a52c-718fb794ce4a","owner":[],"postedDate":"April 25th, 2022","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2022-11-07T04:14:21+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2022-04-25 21:04:42","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-1546915","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-1546915","identity":"rs-1546915","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"qQ7_6M8ijIrYJ9CiyUnPg","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}