Climatic controls on interannual mass balance of global glaciers and ice caps

Climatic controls on interannual mass balance of global glaciers and ice caps | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Climatic controls on interannual mass balance of global glaciers and ice caps Qiuyu Wang, Xiaojun Ma, Matt King, Jonathan Bamber, Bin Liu, Wenke Sun This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8590910/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Global glacier mass balance exhibits pronounced interannual variability, yet the climatic drivers of this variability and its influence on inferred long-term trends remain poorly constrained. Here we use the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission and GRACE Follow-On (GRACE-FO) satellite gravimetry of global glaciers and ice caps over 2002–2024, applying Independent Component Analysis to detrended mass anomalies, to show that nearly 70% of global interannual glacier-mass variability is explained by two statistically independent modes, indicating a low-dimensional structure in the global signal. The leading mode is strongly correlated with the cumulative North Atlantic Oscillation ( \(\:{NAO}_{\sum\:}\) ) index, while the second mode tracks the cumulative Pacific Decadal Oscillation ( \(\:{PDO}_{\sum\:}\) ) index, revealing the long memory of glacier mass balance under sustained atmospheric circulation regimes. Accounting for variability associated with these cumulative climate modes yields a markedly more linear residual glacier-mass-balance record, demonstrating that internal climate variability can mask or distort apparent trends in GRACE-era observations. Our framework provides an observation-based constraint on how internal climate modes modulate high-latitude glacier change and on the interpretation of short satellite records in detection, attribution and sea-level projections. These results highlight vulnerable Arctic glacier regions where internal variability most strongly distorts apparent trends in mass balance. Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Cryospheric science Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Atmospheric science/Atmospheric dynamics Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files SupplementaryInformation.docx Supplementary Information Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8590910","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":574756836,"identity":"f4ca436e-536d-48df-9ee1-e3296f002538","order_by":0,"name":"Qiuyu 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Here we use the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission and GRACE Follow-On (GRACE-FO) satellite gravimetry of global glaciers and ice caps over 2002\u0026ndash;2024, applying Independent Component Analysis to detrended mass anomalies, to show that nearly 70% of global interannual glacier-mass variability is explained by two statistically independent modes, indicating a low-dimensional structure in the global signal. The leading mode is strongly correlated with the cumulative North Atlantic Oscillation (\u003cspan class=\"InlineEquation\"\u003e\u003cspan class=\"mathinline\"\u003e\\(\\:{NAO}_{\\sum\\:}\\)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e) index, while the second mode tracks the cumulative Pacific Decadal Oscillation (\u003cspan class=\"InlineEquation\"\u003e\u003cspan class=\"mathinline\"\u003e\\(\\:{PDO}_{\\sum\\:}\\)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e) index, revealing the long memory of glacier mass balance under sustained atmospheric circulation regimes. Accounting for variability associated with these cumulative climate modes yields a markedly more linear residual glacier-mass-balance record, demonstrating that internal climate variability can mask or distort apparent trends in GRACE-era observations. Our framework provides an observation-based constraint on how internal climate modes modulate high-latitude glacier change and on the interpretation of short satellite records in detection, attribution and sea-level projections. 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