Research on the prediction of drought features in the Luanhe River Basin based on hydrological modeling under climate change

Research on the prediction of drought features in the Luanhe River Basin based on hydrological modeling under climate change | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Research on the prediction of drought features in the Luanhe River Basin based on hydrological modeling under climate change Wentao Jing, Liwen Shang, xinpo Xu, Yang Li, Mingxuan Yi, Dongming Zhang This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8599640/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Against the backdrop of climate change and compounded by human activities, increasing water scarcity has triggered a series of drought disasters, which have already severely impacted both ecological environments and socio-economic production. The SWAT model, recognized for its strong portability and superior spatial heterogeneity, has gained widespread acceptance in fields such as hydrology and environmental science, and is extensively applied in hydrological simulation studies across large-scale river basins. Standardized drought index can effectively reflect the spatiotemporal variations of drought disasters, holding significant importance for clarifying and predicting drought characteristics. Here we took the Luanhe River Basin as the research area, constructed a watershed hydrological model based on SWAT, and projected changes in the basin’s hydrological processes for the period 2030 — 2060. Based on the model’s projected data, we calculated drought indices and extracted drought events for the basin. The results indicate: (1) During the study period, the range of annual runoff in the Luanhe River Basin reached 228.18 mm, while the range of average annual runoff across its sub-basins was 173.32 mm, revealing water resource allocation imbalances on both temporal and spatial scales. This issue is expected to intensify under future warmer and drier climatic conditions. (2) The mid-reaches of the Luanhe River are more prone to drought compared to the upper reaches for its higher water demand. However, due to a stronger capacity for ecological restoration, droughts there are mostly of low intensity in the mid-reaches. In contrast, the upper reaches experience more periods classified as severe or extreme drought, and the drought events encountered are generally more intense than those in the mid-reaches. (3) Anomalies in drought event characteristic values suggest a potential basin-scale, prolonged extreme drought event in the Luanhe River Basin from June 2038 to July 2042. Proactive drought prevention policies should be formulated for this period. The findings of this study provide guiding significance and practical value for drought assessment, risk management, and policy application in the Luanhe River Basin. Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental sciences Earth and environmental sciences/Hydrology Earth and environmental sciences/Natural hazards Scientific community and society/Water resources SWAT Luanhe River Hydrodynamic Simulation Standardized Runoff Index Run Theory Drought Event Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8599640","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":604440792,"identity":"b1a71bd0-87e2-48ee-8829-2623bc710b49","order_by":0,"name":"Wentao Jing","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"China Geological Survey","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Wentao","middleName":"","lastName":"Jing","suffix":""},{"id":604440793,"identity":"da61f743-b5ce-4431-b873-b2c8e236904d","order_by":1,"name":"Liwen Shang","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"China Geological 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The SWAT model, recognized for its strong portability and superior spatial heterogeneity, has gained widespread acceptance in fields such as hydrology and environmental science, and is extensively applied in hydrological simulation studies across large-scale river basins. Standardized drought index can effectively reflect the spatiotemporal variations of drought disasters, holding significant importance for clarifying and predicting drought characteristics. Here we took the Luanhe River Basin as the research area, constructed a watershed hydrological model based on SWAT, and projected changes in the basin\u0026rsquo;s hydrological processes for the period 2030 \u0026mdash; 2060. Based on the model\u0026rsquo;s projected data, we calculated drought indices and extracted drought events for the basin. The results indicate: (1) During the study period, the range of annual runoff in the Luanhe River Basin reached 228.18 mm, while the range of average annual runoff across its sub-basins was 173.32 mm, revealing water resource allocation imbalances on both temporal and spatial scales. This issue is expected to intensify under future warmer and drier climatic conditions. (2) The mid-reaches of the Luanhe River are more prone to drought compared to the upper reaches for its higher water demand. However, due to a stronger capacity for ecological restoration, droughts there are mostly of low intensity in the mid-reaches. In contrast, the upper reaches experience more periods classified as severe or extreme drought, and the drought events encountered are generally more intense than those in the mid-reaches. (3) Anomalies in drought event characteristic values suggest a potential basin-scale, prolonged extreme drought event in the Luanhe River Basin from June 2038 to July 2042. Proactive drought prevention policies should be formulated for this period. The findings of this study provide guiding significance and practical value for drought assessment, risk management, and policy application in the Luanhe River Basin.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Research on the prediction of drought features in the Luanhe River Basin based on hydrological modeling under climate change","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2026-03-13 04:48:00","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8599640/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"b18c0683-28ba-413e-97cf-dc9714fca65c","owner":[],"postedDate":"March 13th, 2026","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[{"type":"decision","content":"Rejected","date":"2026-04-30T07:34:19+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""}],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[{"id":64322562,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences"},{"id":64322563,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental sciences"},{"id":64322564,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Hydrology"},{"id":64322565,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Natural hazards"},{"id":64322566,"name":"Scientific community and society/Water resources"}],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-05-06T14:55:56+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2026-03-13 04:48:00","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-8599640","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-8599640","identity":"rs-8599640","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"XKTyCvWXoU3ODBz1xrDgd","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}