Uncertainties related to the solar resource in the context of the Brazilian interconnected system

Uncertainties related to the solar resource in the context of the Brazilian interconnected system | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Case Report Uncertainties related to the solar resource in the context of the Brazilian interconnected system Fabiano P. Santos, Angelo C. Colombini, Bruna C. Ferreira, Gerson Maximo Tiepolo This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-5427304/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract The objective of this study is to investigate the probabilities of solar resource availability and the reliability of photovoltaic systems connected to Brazil's National Interconnected System (SIN). The research examines the uncertainties associated with these resources and their impact on the stability of the SIN. In order to achieve this, data science methods, including K-means clustering and empirical cumulative distribution curves (ECDF and ECCDF), were employed in order to conduct a comprehensive probabilistic analysis. The results indicate that, on a typical day, the probability of average monthly solar irradiation being less than 4,000 Wh/m².day is essentially zero, thereby reinforcing the reliability of the solar resource. Moreover, an examination of the data for August 15, 2023, revealed no notable correlation between the availability of the solar resource and the failure of the SIN. This study contributes to a more comprehensive understanding of renewable energy sources in Brazil and to the formulation of energy planning strategies that ensure the stability of the SIN in the context of the growing penetration of renewable sources. Solar energy systems analysis renewable sources Big Data Machine Learning Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-5427304","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Case Report","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":389592361,"identity":"31cf9e00-5db5-4809-80d3-1f5fa7dd53e2","order_by":0,"name":"Fabiano P. 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