Transient reliance on carbon removal and storage in long-term energy system transitions

Transient reliance on carbon removal and storage in long-term energy system transitions | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Transient reliance on carbon removal and storage in long-term energy system transitions Shinichiro Fujimori, Thanakon Sukuman, Shotaro Mori, Osamu Nishiura, and 7 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8393021/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Most mitigation scenarios to achieve 1.5°C goal rely on carbon dioxide removal (CDR) and carbon capture and storage (CCS), raising concerns about their long-term sustainability within future energy systems. While several studies have explored pathways that reduce CDR and CCS by assuming additional transformative societal changes—such as lower energy demand, their cost and feasibility are difficult to evaluate, leading to uncertainty about their real-world plausibility. Here, we propose Transient reliance and Phase-out of CDR and CCS (TPCC) scenario; where CDR and CCS are used temporarily but gradually phased out thereafter resolving the long-term sustainability concerns. In the short-term, renewable energy deployment and electrification are maximized; in the mid-term, diversified CDR options enable temporary large-scale negative emissions without excessive land pressure; and in the long-term, synthetic fuels and hydrogen eliminate fossil-fuel residual emissions. While challenges remain, the TPCC presents critical implications for the design of future energy system transitions. Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences/Climate-change mitigation Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences/Socioeconomic scenarios Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences/Energy and society/Energy supply and demand Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files Historicalvalidation.pdf Extended Data 1 SupplementaryInformation.pdf SOM Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8393021","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":563014801,"identity":"1a7ea93a-9b2d-4498-8ade-d97d37534b8c","order_by":0,"name":"Shinichiro 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