Fossil Fuel Subsidy Reforms Have Grown More Fragile Since the Paris Conference

Fossil Fuel Subsidy Reforms Have Grown More Fragile Since the Paris Conference | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Analysis Fossil Fuel Subsidy Reforms Have Grown More Fragile Since the Paris Conference Michael Ross, Paasha Mahdavi, Evelyn Simoni This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-5147654/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 26 Mar, 2025 Read the published version in Nature Climate Change → Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract The 2015 Paris Climate Agreement led many countries to make ambitious pledges of policy reform, including to reduce subsidies for fossil fuels. Yet it is unclear whether these reforms have been implemented, with prior studies showing conflicting results. We collect original monthly data on the 21 countries with the largest gasoline subsidies in the pre-Paris period and evaluate their post-Paris reforms. After Paris there was an increase in the frequency and ambition of reforms but a drop in their durability: just 30 percent of the reforms survived for 12 months, and only 9 percent survived for 36 months. As a result, subsidies rose for 12 countries in our sample and were virtually unchanged in the other 9. Our results suggest that countries have made little progress toward reducing subsidies since the Paris Agreement. It also raises questions about the effectiveness of recent strategies for reducing fossil fuel subsidies. Scientific community and society/Social sciences/Climate change/Climate-change mitigation Scientific community and society/Social sciences/Politics Scientific community and society/Energy and society/Energy policy Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences/Climate-change policy Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences/Climate-change mitigation Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 26 Mar, 2025 Read the published version in Nature Climate Change → Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-5147654","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Analysis","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":363463319,"identity":"bec4152d-76fc-45e5-a0a9-9686d0a531e3","order_by":0,"name":"Michael Ross","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA5klEQVRIiWNgGAWjYDACdjBpA2QwNjAwGMBE2PBoYQaTaUAGTAszcVoOwxhEaNFt5n348Mef83n8zMzNH34UMCT2NzM/YPhQdhinFrPD7MbGvG23iyWbGdskewwYEmccZjNgnHEOnxY2NmnGhtuJGw4ztjED/ZK4AUgy87bh1yL54885kJbmzxAt7B+Y/xLQIsHDdgCkpUEaooXHgJkRvxZmoF+SYX6RMJ5xmKfgYM+5dNxajrcxAkPMLo+fvf3xhx9/bGT729s3PvhRZo1TCwwkQGkJMHmAoHokLaNgFIyCUTAKMAEAnLRNaAib/wIAAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0128-7907","institution":"University of California, Los Angeles","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Michael","middleName":"","lastName":"Ross","suffix":""},{"id":363463320,"identity":"602c74bf-1b22-49d7-a02e-14ad7183eef3","order_by":1,"name":"Paasha Mahdavi","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of California, Santa Barbara","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Paasha","middleName":"","lastName":"Mahdavi","suffix":""},{"id":363463321,"identity":"dc94a029-259b-417b-b5a2-b740b678e19b","order_by":2,"name":"Evelyn Simoni","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of California, Los Angeles","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Evelyn","middleName":"","lastName":"Simoni","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2024-09-24 21:30:44","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-5147654/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-5147654/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[{"content":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02283-4","type":"published","date":"2025-03-26T04:00:00+00:00"}],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":79333328,"identity":"bfd8820f-836c-4a9a-9d89-cfa4830e732f","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-03-27 07:14:41","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":370202,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"MahdaviRossSimoniNCCmanuscript.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-5147654/v1_covered_f8fe763b-c98f-48e8-b893-380156a15908.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"There is \u003cb\u003eNO\u003c/b\u003e Competing Interest.","formattedTitle":"Fossil Fuel Subsidy Reforms Have Grown More Fragile Since the Paris Conference","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":true,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"nature-portfolio","isNatureJournal":true,"hasQc":false,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Nature Portfolio","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":false,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"ejp","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-5147654/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-5147654/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"The 2015 Paris Climate Agreement led many countries to make ambitious pledges\r\nof policy reform, including to reduce subsidies for fossil fuels. Yet it is unclear\r\nwhether these reforms have been implemented, with prior studies showing conflicting\r\nresults. We collect original monthly data on the 21 countries with the largest\r\ngasoline subsidies in the pre-Paris period and evaluate their post-Paris reforms.\r\nAfter Paris there was an increase in the frequency and ambition of reforms but\r\na drop in their durability: just 30 percent of the reforms survived for 12 months,\r\nand only 9 percent survived for 36 months. As a result, subsidies rose for 12\r\ncountries in our sample and were virtually unchanged in the other 9. Our results\r\nsuggest that countries have made little progress toward reducing subsidies since\r\nthe Paris Agreement. 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