Inferring the ecological drivers of arboviral outbreaks

The emergence and wide-spread circulation of mosquito-transmitted viral diseases, such as dengue, Zika and Chikungunya, is a global public health concern. In the absence of effective vaccines, current control measures are mostly targeted against the mosquito vector and have so far only shown limited success. The reliance on mosquitoes for transmission also imposes strong ecological constraints that can introduce significant spatial and temporal variations in disease incidence. However, the way that epidemiological and ecological factors interact and determine population-level disease dynamics is only partially understood. Here we fit a spatially-explicit individual based model defined within a Bayesian framework to Zika incidence data from Feira de Santana, allowing us to more precisely quantify the relationships between socio-ecological factors and arboviral outbreaks. Our results further demonstrated that the virus was likely introduced into multiple spatially segregated locations at the start of the outbreak, highlighting the benefits that spatio-temporal incidence data would bring in making modelling approaches more realistic for public health planning.