Holocene Hydroclimate in the Southeastern United States During Abrupt Climate Events: Evidence From New Speleothem Isotopic Records From Alabama

Holocene Hydroclimate in the Southeastern United States During Abrupt Climate Events: Evidence From New Speleothem Isotopic Records From Alabama | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Holocene Hydroclimate in the Southeastern United States During Abrupt Climate Events: Evidence From New Speleothem Isotopic Records From Alabama Martin Medina-Elizalde, Stefan Perritano, Matthew DeCesare, Josué Polanco-Martinez, and 3 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-152650/v2 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 2 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Show more versions Abstract We present new high-resolution absolute-dated stalagmite δ 18 O and δ 13 C records from the southeastern United States (SE US) spanning the last 12 thousand years (ka). A local relationship between annual rainfall amount and its amount-weighed δ 18 O composition exists on interannual timescales, driven mostly by an amount effect during summer and spring seasons, and by an isotopically depleted composition of fall and winter precipitation. Based on a novel interpretation of modern rainfall isotopic data, stalagmite δ 18 O variability is interpreted to reflect the relative contribution of summer and spring precipitation combined relative to combined fall and winter precipitation. Precipitation amount in the SE US increases during the Younger Dryas, the 8.2 ka and Little Ice Age abrupt cooling events. High precipitation during these events reflects enhancement of spring and summer precipitation while the contribution of fall and winter rainfall remained unchanged or decreased slightly. Results from this study support model simulation results that suggest increased precipitation in the SE US during Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) slowdown/shutdown (LeGrande et al., 2006; Renssen et al., 2002; Vellinga and Wood, 2002). In association with Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude cooling from the Early to mid-Holocene, annual precipitation in the SE US decreases, a pattern distinctive from that observed during abrupt cooling events related to AMOC shifts. Long-term hydroclimate change in the SE US is likely sensitive to summer insolation reduction as inferred for other tropical and subtropical regions. This study has implications for our understanding of the sensitivity of subtropical hydroclimate to factors both internal and external to the climate system in a warmer climate. Climatology Climate Analysis and Modeling Atmospheric Sciences SE US relationship hydroclimate speleothem Figures Figure 1 Figure 2 Figure 3 Figure 4 Figure 5 Figure 6 Figure 7 Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Supplementary Files Supplementarymaterials.docx TableS1final.xlsx TableS2datacompilation.xlsx TableS3final.xlsx TableS4.xlsx Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 2 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Show more versions Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-152650","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":9982872,"identity":"ba4a03c1-c579-4785-b740-19812461f3b1","order_by":0,"name":"Martin Medina-Elizalde","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA60lEQVRIiWNgGAWjYJACiQQgwccMJD7AhHiI0cIG1MI4g2gtIIINiJnhKvFp0Z12+OCNhzvs5NjY2R9+tm3bJi/ff4Dxwds23FrMbqclWySeSTYGOixZOrfttuGGGwnMhnPxaskxk0hsYwYihgMgLYwbJBjYpHnxasn/BtRSX9/GzNj827Lttv38/gPsv/FryWEDajmcwMbMzCbN2HY7seEAkI1fS5qxRWLbccM2ZjY2y55zt5M33EhslpxzDp+W5Ic3f7ZVy/PzH39840fZbdv5/YcPfnhThlsLNsDYQJr6UTAKRsEoGAUYAACtIU9KVuibcAAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==","orcid":"","institution":"University of Massachusetts Amherst","correspondingAuthor":true,"submittingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Martin","middleName":"","lastName":"Medina-Elizalde","suffix":""},{"id":9982873,"identity":"11e9e3c8-57d3-4b08-9e15-bfed539da912","order_by":1,"name":"Stefan Perritano","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Auburn University","correspondingAuthor":false,"submittingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Stefan","middleName":"","lastName":"Perritano","suffix":""},{"id":9982874,"identity":"a19bbf50-4b73-4628-bb48-447418603e23","order_by":2,"name":"Matthew DeCesare","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Auburn University","correspondingAuthor":false,"submittingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Matthew","middleName":"","lastName":"DeCesare","suffix":""},{"id":9982875,"identity":"2d9c0f5f-786e-4015-8670-0e8590e10672","order_by":3,"name":"Josué Polanco-Martinez","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of Deusto","correspondingAuthor":false,"submittingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Josué","middleName":"","lastName":"Polanco-Martinez","suffix":""},{"id":9982876,"identity":"58fe4e5b-f6b4-4bc0-aa02-3ef5581cd8fa","order_by":4,"name":"Gabriela Serrato-Marks","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Massachusetts Institute of Technology","correspondingAuthor":false,"submittingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Gabriela","middleName":"","lastName":"Serrato-Marks","suffix":""},{"id":9982877,"identity":"e7949006-3661-4900-b194-90e0b9276118","order_by":5,"name":"David McGee","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Massachusetts Institute of Technology","correspondingAuthor":false,"submittingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"David","middleName":"","lastName":"McGee","suffix":""},{"id":9982878,"identity":"3f6ae8a5-68e9-49ce-9d92-d3a795ca1af4","order_by":6,"name":"Fernanda Lases-Hernandez","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"National Autonomous University of Mexico","correspondingAuthor":false,"submittingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Fernanda","middleName":"","lastName":"Lases-Hernandez","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2021-01-21 18:14:11","currentVersionCode":2,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-152650/v2","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-152650/v2","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":7215038,"identity":"e80453bf-bb3d-4c3a-b8fb-a152b707db32","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2021-03-22 13:36:57","extension":"jpg","order_by":1,"title":"Figure 1","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":454167,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Spatio-temporal correlation analysis of precipitation (monthly values from 1901 to 2013 and with a spatial coverage of 0.5° latitude by 0.5° longitude) at the location (34°31′N, 86°11′W) (War Eagle Cave, Alabama). Location of War Eagle Cave indicated with light blue star. The precipitation data set comes from the GPCC Global Precipitation Climatology Centre and is available from https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.gpcc.html. 467 The map was created using the R software.\nNote: The designations employed and the presentation of the material on this map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of Research Square concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. This map has been provided by the authors.","description":"","filename":"Fig1.jpg","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-152650/v2/9229cd19fd2a7eb79a4277ae.jpg"},{"id":7215053,"identity":"e2926df7-a485-40dd-b224-053ebf5b44e6","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2021-03-22 13:37:19","extension":"png","order_by":2,"title":"Figure 2","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":68267,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Stalagmite War Eagle (WE) δ18O and δ13C records spanning the last 12.2 ka. Vertical colored bars indicate relevant time intervals discussed in the manuscript. The time resolution of these records is from 7 to 44 years, decreasing as time progresses from the Early to the Late Holocene.","description":"","filename":"Fig2.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-152650/v2/46fbd47d3efe3eba91f4bd19.png"},{"id":7215052,"identity":"71849026-8b5c-41e4-8971-4edc7b39c152","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2021-03-22 13:37:19","extension":"jpg","order_by":3,"title":"Figure 3","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":746094,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Plot illustrating the change in the decadal average δ18O composition of rainfall resulting from shifting the amount of precipitation during spring and summer labelled as ‘summer’, and fall and winter, labeled as ‘winter’, relative to modern conditions. The X axis represents the fractional change in precipitation amount from modern conditions; 1= 100% increase or a doubling of precipitation amount, and -1=100% decline in precipitation amount. Blue line represents the expected decadal average δ18O composition shift from changing the amount of precipitation during ‘winter’ from -100% (no precipitation) to plus 100% (doubling) while keeping ‘summer’ precipitation amount constant. Dark orange line, represents the expected decadal average δ18O composition shift from changing the amount of precipitation during ‘summer’ keeping ‘winter’ precipitation amount constant. These calculations include the amount effect relationship during the summer and spring seasons observed today. A decrease in ‘summer’ precipitation increases the decadal average δ18O composition of rainfall, because of the inverse relationship between precipitation amount and precipitation δ18O during the summer and spring, up to the point when the decline of ‘summer’ precipitation amount and its relatively positive isotopic composition “enhances” the influence of the depleted isotopic composition that characterizes ‘winter’ precipitation (shown in plot section as “ ‘winter’ isotopic composition dominates”). The maximum positive isotopic shift produced from a reduction in ‘summer’ precipitation amount per se, keeping ‘winter’ precipitation constant, is 0.21‰ associated with a 40% precipitation amount reduction. A larger decrease in ‘summer’ precipitation amount no longer increases the isotopic composition of rainfall, because as mentioned above the depleted isotopic composition of winter begins to dominate. On the other hand, because there is no relationship between precipitation amount and precipitation δ18O during ‘winter’ and there is an amount effect during summer, an increase in ‘winter’ precipitation has a much modest effect that an increase in ‘summer’ precipitation amount on rainfall δ18O. A doubling in the amount of ‘winter’ precipitation is expected to decrease the decadal average δ18O composition of rainfall by 0.24‰, whereas a doubling in ‘summer’ precipitation amount would decrease the δ18O of rainfall by 1.4‰.","description":"","filename":"Fig3.jpg","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-152650/v2/8f11357eabad5ef728229584.jpg"},{"id":7215046,"identity":"1df82bb0-039d-4915-a09f-97026d0cd2a2","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2021-03-22 13:37:03","extension":"jpg","order_by":4,"title":"Figure 4","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":583506,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Blow up comparing the NGRIP ice core d18O record (panel A) (Rasmussen et al., 2006), the Ti% record from the Cariaco Basin, offshore Venezuela (panel B) (Haug et al., 2001) and the WE stalagmite d18O record (panel C, this study) over the Younger Dryas time interval. Note that top X-axis representing panels A and B and the bottom X-axis representing panel C, are shifted relative to each other with a maximum offset of ~200 yrs, in order to accommodate a dating uncertainty in the layer counting of young ice of ±120 yrs in the NGRIP ice core record (Rasmussen et al., 2006) and in the stalagmite d18O record ~12 ka BP of ± 70 yrs (Table S1). Top X-scale corresponds to that of the records presented on panels A and B and the bottom X-scale corresponds to the WE stalagmite record.","description":"","filename":"Fig4.jpg","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-152650/v2/4850dab343ed56b194428b7f.jpg"},{"id":7215044,"identity":"caa462f0-01a9-4541-a3fb-66468d1aa1e9","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2021-03-22 13:37:02","extension":"jpg","order_by":5,"title":"Figure 5","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":491310,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Blow up comparing the NGRIP ice core d18O record (panel A) (Rasmussen et al., 2006), the Ti% record from the Cariaco Basin, offshore Venezuela (panel B) and the WE stalagmite d18O record (panel C, this study) over the 8.2 ka cooling event.","description":"","filename":"Fig5.jpg","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-152650/v2/e75b76318533ab27b2859c2e.jpg"},{"id":7215055,"identity":"ca73b569-704c-49d9-8251-7fd3b66ec968","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2021-03-22 13:37:23","extension":"jpg","order_by":6,"title":"Figure 6","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":613460,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Blow up comparing a North Atlantic sea surface temperature reconstruction (panel A) (Marcott et al., 2013), the Cariaco Basin Ti% record (panel B) (Haug et al., 2001) and the WE stalagmite d18O record (panel C, this study) spanning the transition from the Early to the Mid-Holocene. Darker continuous lines represent 7-point moving averages.","description":"","filename":"Fig6.jpg","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-152650/v2/bb1f05fb97ee06b6a4020dd2.jpg"},{"id":7215051,"identity":"5f9516d3-f60d-4308-bd88-ab13444c6c89","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2021-03-22 13:37:15","extension":"jpg","order_by":7,"title":"Figure 7","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":538676,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Blow up comparing a Northern Hemisphere surface temperature record (panel A)(Mann et al., 2009), the Cariaco Basin Ti% record (panel B) (Haug et al., 2001) and the WE stalagmite d18O record (panel C, this study) spanning the late Holocene. The mean resolution of the stalagmite record over this time interval is 44 yrs.","description":"","filename":"Fig7.jpg","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-152650/v2/c64ee0f1e34e3d42879c612a.jpg"},{"id":13580461,"identity":"4dd52de4-7726-422b-9c33-de4e882aeadb","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2021-09-17 04:23:40","extension":"pdf","order_by":0,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":2382681,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"MEetalManuscriptandfigures.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-152650/v1_covered.pdf"},{"id":13611077,"identity":"61763c60-6d17-49ed-8eec-c26fc40bfe06","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2021-09-17 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Alabama\u003c/p\u003e","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":false,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"SE US, relationship, hydroclimate, speleothem","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-152650/v2","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-152650/v2","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eWe present new high-resolution absolute-dated stalagmite δ\u003csup\u003e18\u003c/sup\u003eO and δ\u003csup\u003e13\u003c/sup\u003eC records from the southeastern United States (SE US) spanning the last 12 thousand years (ka). A local relationship between annual rainfall amount and its amount-weighed δ\u003csup\u003e18\u003c/sup\u003eO composition exists on interannual timescales, driven mostly by an amount effect during summer and spring seasons, and by an isotopically depleted composition of fall and winter precipitation. Based on a novel interpretation of modern rainfall isotopic data, stalagmite δ\u003csup\u003e18\u003c/sup\u003eO variability is interpreted to reflect the relative contribution of summer and spring precipitation combined relative to combined fall and winter precipitation. Precipitation amount in the SE US increases during the Younger Dryas, the 8.2 ka and Little Ice Age abrupt cooling events. High precipitation during these events reflects enhancement of spring and summer precipitation while the contribution of fall and winter rainfall remained unchanged or decreased slightly. Results from this study support model simulation results that suggest increased precipitation in the SE US during Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) slowdown/shutdown (LeGrande et al., 2006; Renssen et al., 2002; Vellinga and Wood, 2002). In association with Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude cooling from the Early to mid-Holocene, annual precipitation in the SE US decreases, a pattern distinctive from that observed during abrupt cooling events related to AMOC shifts. Long-term hydroclimate change in the SE US is likely sensitive to summer insolation reduction as inferred for other tropical and subtropical regions. This study has implications for our understanding of the sensitivity of subtropical hydroclimate to factors both internal and external to the climate system in a warmer climate.\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Holocene Hydroclimate in the Southeastern United States During Abrupt Climate Events: Evidence From New Speleothem Isotopic Records From Alabama","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":2,"date":"2021-03-22 13:35:52","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-152650/v2","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}},{"code":1,"date":"2021-02-01 16:15:23","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-152650/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"739843b5-8554-4d41-9313-2048251143f9","owner":[],"postedDate":"March 22nd, 2021","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[{"id":2183994,"name":"Climatology"},{"id":2183995,"name":"Climate Analysis and Modeling"},{"id":2183996,"name":"Atmospheric Sciences"}],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2021-03-19T07:44:07+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2021-03-22 13:35:52","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v2","identity":"rs-152650","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-152650","identity":"rs-152650","version":["v2"]},"buildId":"ApUGefWb6u5IBVtyqm6d5","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}