Circular technology design and its potential influence on minor metals demand in wind and solar expansion

Circular technology design and its potential influence on minor metals demand in wind and solar expansion | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Circular technology design and its potential influence on minor metals demand in wind and solar expansion Georgia Savvidou, Filip Johnsson, Maria Ljunggren, Qiyu Liu, Ulku Tasseven, and 1 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8065511/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted 9 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract The rising global demand for metals used in renewable energy generation technologies poses supply risks and socio-environmental impacts, threatening a sustainable energy transition. While the role of circular economy in reducing their demand has gained attention, its potentials related to advances in technology design remains underexplored. Here, we use explorative scenarios to assess circular technology design potentials for 11 minor metals through longer design lifespan, metal intensity reduction, and substitution, during large-scale deployment of wind and solar power in energy transition to 2050. Using Sweden as a case study we show that these strategies collectively may reduce cumulative demands for minor metals by 42–80%, depending on the metal. While all strategies reduce demand for metals in new technologies, their combination slightly increases the gap between this demand and the quantities in decommissioned ones. For wind power, no individual strategy results in metals available for recovery in quantities sufficient to satisfy new demand before 2050, although their combination achieves this for dysprosium and terbium. For solar power, reducing metal intensity alone substantially reduces demand across metals and enables silver and germanium available for recovery to meet new demand before 2050. However, for most metals, the availability for recovery remains insufficient throughout most of the scenario period, highlighting the need for continued additional primary or secondary supply. To fully explore the potential benefits of these circular design strategies, opportunities across all stages of the wind and solar supply chains must be examined—assuming the anticipated technological developments materialize. industrial ecology material flow analysis renewable electricity circular economy wind solar Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Supplementary Files SupportinginformationS1.docx SupportingInformationS2.xlsx Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted Reviews received at journal 15 Dec, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 11 Dec, 2025 Reviews received at journal 10 Dec, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 10 Dec, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 01 Dec, 2025 Reviewers invited by journal 25 Nov, 2025 Editor assigned by journal 10 Nov, 2025 Submission checks completed at journal 10 Nov, 2025 First submitted to journal 08 Nov, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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