Impacts of Multi–Observation Interests on Rainstorm Forecasts in East China: An OSSE–Based Study

Impacts of Multi–Observation Interests on Rainstorm Forecasts in East China: An OSSE–Based Study | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Impacts of Multi–Observation Interests on Rainstorm Forecasts in East China: An OSSE–Based Study Yakai Guo, Changliang Shao, Guanjun Niu, Yuting Dong This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7091557/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Existing Observation System Simulation Experiment (OSSE) studies have limitations in evaluating regional rainstorms in East China due to the lack of known atmospheric truth and varied interests. This study introduces a comprehensive framework that combines multiple forecast metrics (synoptic, objective, energy, economic) with various observation interests (element, region, density, layer) using identical twin designs. The framework assesses their impacts on a central East China rainstorm event (19 July 2016) through flexible assimilation-forecast systems. Key findings include: (1) significant disparities in mutual sensitivity between metrics and observation interests, highlighting the limitations of single-interest approaches; (2) coordinated optimization strategies that identify specific observation interests (e.g., surface temperature, mid-east region, southern density, 500 hPa layers) that enhance forecast accuracy, while others (e.g., dew element, central-west region, northwestern density, 925 hPa layers) require cautious reduction; (3) universal improvements in forecasts through assimilation across different reference truths, but with notable benefit-cost paradoxes that underscore the need for enhanced validation of synoptic metrics and reference authenticity. These results provide actionable insights for improving the harmonization of observation and forecast systems in regional numerical models, ultimately enhancing extreme weather prediction and disaster mitigation. Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental sciences Earth and environmental sciences/Natural hazards Observation impact forecast sensitivity Observation System Simulation Experiments rainstorm data assimilation Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Supplementary Files Guoetal2025MvsOIGsuppletmentsSRV1.docx Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7091557","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":485105413,"identity":"b403b39c-cc02-416b-92ea-6d6b8d9b1c4e","order_by":0,"name":"Yakai Guo","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAAv0lEQVRIiWNgGAWjYJACxsYGhgR+ZuaDD0jTItnOlmxAmhaD8zxmAkQpl49IPiY5c8e2POPDDGYMDDU20QS1GN5IS5PceOZ2sdlhhrQHDMfSchsIapmRYyb5sO124rbDDMcNGBsOk6BlczNjmwRRWuQlgFo2ArVsYGZmI06LAc+zZMuZbbeLJQ6zMRskEOMX+fbkgzd7227n8fef//jgQ40NEbYcYGCRgPMSCCkH29LAwPyBGIWjYBSMglEwggEAOw1EzE3iDDQAAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"","institution":"Henan Meteorological Bureau, China Meteorological Administration","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Yakai","middleName":"","lastName":"Guo","suffix":""},{"id":485105414,"identity":"2c7b7621-2639-439a-a7f8-72bcd89bb86d","order_by":1,"name":"Changliang Shao","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"China Meteorological Administration","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Changliang","middleName":"","lastName":"Shao","suffix":""},{"id":485105415,"identity":"aa1b7a1d-015d-4a8a-9034-8334a65ceb1e","order_by":2,"name":"Guanjun Niu","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"China Meteorological Administration","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Guanjun","middleName":"","lastName":"Niu","suffix":""},{"id":485105416,"identity":"a102a418-a2bd-49d5-abc4-7f51997bdec5","order_by":3,"name":"Yuting Dong","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Alfred Wegener Institute","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Yuting","middleName":"","lastName":"Dong","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-07-10 09:53:15","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7091557/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7091557/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":98379210,"identity":"be8ca8ed-3a23-4282-ad06-943f67260609","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-12-17 07:24:57","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1492544,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Guoetal2025MvsOIGmanuscriptSRV1.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7091557/v1_covered_1f5d43f5-9431-4994-b278-f2c2ad257003.pdf"},{"id":86871285,"identity":"1a5c67e8-0c27-4ccd-ba1d-d43a517a85a9","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-07-16 14:26:17","extension":"docx","order_by":0,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":2840706,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Guoetal2025MvsOIGsuppletmentsSRV1.docx","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7091557/v1/3cfa46face113e734fc15b62.docx"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Impacts of Multi–Observation Interests on Rainstorm Forecasts in East China: An OSSE–Based Study","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Observation impact, forecast sensitivity, Observation System Simulation Experiments, rainstorm, data assimilation","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7091557/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7091557/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eExisting Observation System Simulation Experiment (OSSE) studies have limitations in evaluating regional rainstorms in East China due to the lack of known atmospheric truth and varied interests. This study introduces a comprehensive framework that combines multiple forecast metrics (synoptic, objective, energy, economic) with various observation interests (element, region, density, layer) using identical twin designs. The framework assesses their impacts on a central East China rainstorm event (19 July 2016) through flexible assimilation-forecast systems. 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