Accelerating urbanization drives physical isolation of global protected area networks

Accelerating urbanization drives physical isolation of global protected area networks | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Accelerating urbanization drives physical isolation of global protected area networks Rakibul Ahasan, Burak Güneralp This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-9323492/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Protected areas (PAs) are central to global biodiversity conservation, yet their function depends on surrounding landscapes. Here we analyze urban land cover change within and around global PAs from 1992 to 2015, revealing systematic decoupling between internal stability and rapid buffer urbanization. Urban area within 50-km buffer zones grew four times faster than within PA interiors, consistent across all regions and IUCN categories. This encirclement follows three regional modes: fortress isolation in North America and Western Europe, where boundaries hold but buffers saturate; permeable degradation in East and Southeast Asia, where urbanization breaches PA interiors; and accelerating pressure across the Global South. Urbanization is driven disproportionately by pre-1992 designations, and sites below 100 km² show non-linear increases in internal urban cover regardless of management strictness. Unlike cropland, urban cover showed no reversal in any region. These findings indicate that area-based targets alone are insufficient without management of PA peripheries. Scientific community and society/Geography Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences/Sustainability Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files 02.SuppHistoricalAnalysisPAUrbanEncroachmentNatSus.pdf Supplementary Information Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-9323492","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":619492433,"identity":"a3605c5a-03ac-43d6-9827-11d8bf6b9518","order_by":0,"name":"Rakibul Ahasan","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAAtElEQVRIiWNgGAWjYFACHjApB+UxE6/FmIdkLYk9RGsxbz978OOPmjvp+9lPp0kwVFgnNhDSInMmL1ma59iz3B6e3G0SDGfSCWuRYMgxkGZgO5zbwwDUwth2mAgt/G+Mf/74dzidh/8tUMs/YrRI5JhJ8LYdTuCRANnSQJSWN2bWvH2HDXtuvN1skXAs3ZgIh+UY3/zx7bA8e3/uxhsfaqxlCWpBBQmkKR8Fo2AUjIJRgAsAAFZuOxmOWbAnAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4772-8499","institution":"Texas A\u0026M University","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Rakibul","middleName":"","lastName":"Ahasan","suffix":""},{"id":619492434,"identity":"f9abaaa8-2a07-4e2d-8f2d-313cd9931c6a","order_by":1,"name":"Burak Güneralp","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5825-0630","institution":"Texas A\u0026M University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Burak","middleName":"","lastName":"Güneralp","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2026-04-05 01:30:14","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9323492/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9323492/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":108379827,"identity":"dbdbb8f0-4b6d-480e-8709-e0ddaa07f5bc","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-05-04 04:29:40","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1086210,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Article File","description":"","filename":"01.MainHistoricalAnalysisPAUrbanEncroachmentNatSus.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-9323492/v1_covered_293452bf-2129-4cc8-8ae0-41e40c4d8494.pdf"},{"id":108379826,"identity":"c5bab4e4-be5d-4289-83e2-dd8715c19bfc","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-05-04 04:29:35","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":6709796,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Supplementary Information","description":"","filename":"02.SuppHistoricalAnalysisPAUrbanEncroachmentNatSus.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-9323492/v1/eecfddeea10a833318d4ed17.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"There is \u003cb\u003eNO\u003c/b\u003e Competing Interest.","formattedTitle":"Accelerating urbanization drives physical isolation of global protected area networks","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"nature-portfolio","isNatureJournal":true,"hasQc":false,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Nature Portfolio","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":false,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"ejp","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9323492/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9323492/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"Protected areas (PAs) are central to global biodiversity conservation, yet their function depends on surrounding landscapes. 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