Mechanical responses and probabilistic sensitivity analysis of shield tunnel segment in water-rich soft strata

Mechanical responses and probabilistic sensitivity analysis of shield tunnel segment in water-rich soft strata | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Mechanical responses and probabilistic sensitivity analysis of shield tunnel segment in water-rich soft strata Xi Chen, Ling Zhang, Dengheng Zheng, Shijie Li This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-9240500/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted 13 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Lining segments of shield tunnels in water-rich soft strata suffer severe mechanical challenges from groundwater level fluctuations and fluid-solid coupling, which threatens tunnel structural stability. Taking the Liuyang River-crossing shield tunnel of Changsha Metro Line 3 as the research object, a 2D hydro-mechanical coupling finite element model was established via ANSYS to analyze the mechanical responses (pore water pressure, stress, displacement) of segments under four typical groundwater level conditions. Based on the ANSYS/PDS platform, the Monte Carlo method was adopted for reliability analysis, involving 9 types of random variables related to surrounding rock and segment parameters with 10,000 cyclic sampling calculations; probability sensitivity analysis was further conducted to identify key factors affecting segment internal forces. The results show that groundwater level is the dominant factor for segment mechanical behavior: peak pore water pressure, structural stress and horizontal convergence are positively correlated with it, while vertical settlement is negatively correlated; the segment outer ring is prone to tensile failure, with the crown and haunches as key control positions for vertical settlement and horizontal convergence respectively. Increasing segment stiffness elevates its internal forces, while higher surrounding rock elastic modulus reduces segment internal forces and improves reliability, and the rise of surrounding rock unit weight and permeability coefficient significantly increases segment load. Probability sensitivity analysis reveals that surrounding rock unit weight is the dominant factor for segment axial force and lining thickness is the primary factor for bending moment, and the effects of surrounding rock cohesion and internal friction angle can be neglected in engineering practice. This study clarifies the mechanical response law of segments under variable groundwater levels and identifies key sensitive parameters for structural reliability, providing valuable theoretical and engineering references for the optimal design and safety control of shield tunnel linings in similar water-rich soft strata. Physical sciences/Energy science and technology Physical sciences/Engineering shield tunnel lining segment fluid-solid coupling mechanical behaviors probabilistic sensitivity analysis Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 21 Apr, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 20 Apr, 2026 Reviews received at journal 18 Apr, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 17 Apr, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 16 Apr, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 12 Apr, 2026 Reviews received at journal 09 Apr, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 08 Apr, 2026 Reviewers invited by journal 06 Apr, 2026 Editor invited by journal 02 Apr, 2026 Editor assigned by journal 28 Mar, 2026 Submission checks completed at journal 28 Mar, 2026 First submitted to journal 27 Mar, 2026 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-9240500","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":620077557,"identity":"7111e80c-1a82-4b5d-a050-4921d91ba8c0","order_by":0,"name":"Xi Chen","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Guangzhou Railway Polytechnic","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Xi","middleName":"","lastName":"Chen","suffix":""},{"id":620077558,"identity":"98948cf9-2a67-4ccd-a425-b34b440c2234","order_by":1,"name":"Ling Zhang","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Qingdao Huanghai University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Ling","middleName":"","lastName":"Zhang","suffix":""},{"id":620077559,"identity":"b5c3e9a5-9e4e-48ba-83ee-e8b26ee4a9e5","order_by":2,"name":"Dengheng Zheng","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAABCklEQVRIiWNgGAWjYDACCRDBBmNUQEV5iNdyBkKRoIWxjQgt8rObjz38UmaTJx8NZHydV1tncCOB8cHbNgZ5cxxaGOccSzeWOZdWbHgHyJDddlxCckYCs+HcNgbDnQ3YtTBL5JhJS7YdTtw4A8TYdkyCXyKBTZq3jSHB4AB2LWwS+d+AWv4DtYAYc45JsEkksP/Gp4VHIodN8mPbgcT5YEZDDdgWZnxaJCTSzKQZziUnbgAzjh2QnNnzsFlyzjkJww04tMjPSH4m+aPMLnE+mFFTx29wPPnghzdlNvK4bAEHASgWQAqAjMMMDAKJDQzQ+MIJGH+ArGsAM+oYGPjxmD4KRsEoGAUjEgAAob5acRPbo5AAAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"","institution":"Guangzhou Railway Polytechnic","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Dengheng","middleName":"","lastName":"Zheng","suffix":""},{"id":620077560,"identity":"e8c16b58-fcab-4710-9033-7e0a9b56e545","order_by":3,"name":"Shijie Li","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Jiangxi University of Science and Technology","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Shijie","middleName":"","lastName":"Li","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2026-03-27 05:53:40","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9240500/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9240500/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":106581524,"identity":"cbd65143-6b02-4891-89b3-92f9bd238bc9","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-04-10 06:47:37","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1163348,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Mechanicalresponsesandprobabilisticsensitivityanalysisofshieldtunnelsegmentinwaterrichsoftstrata.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-9240500/v1_covered_52653df9-6abc-4cc1-b1dd-e98143373634.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Mechanical responses and probabilistic sensitivity analysis of shield tunnel segment in water-rich soft strata","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"scientific-reports","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"scirep","sideBox":"Learn more about [Scientific Reports](http://www.nature.com/srep/)","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Scientific Reports","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"stoa","reportingPortfolio":"Scientific Reports","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"shield tunnel, lining segment, fluid-solid coupling, mechanical behaviors, probabilistic sensitivity analysis","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9240500/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9240500/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eLining segments of shield tunnels in water-rich soft strata suffer severe mechanical challenges from groundwater level fluctuations and fluid-solid coupling, which threatens tunnel structural stability. Taking the Liuyang River-crossing shield tunnel of Changsha Metro Line 3 as the research object, a 2D hydro-mechanical coupling finite element model was established via ANSYS to analyze the mechanical responses (pore water pressure, stress, displacement) of segments under four typical groundwater level conditions. Based on the ANSYS/PDS platform, the Monte Carlo method was adopted for reliability analysis, involving 9 types of random variables related to surrounding rock and segment parameters with 10,000 cyclic sampling calculations; probability sensitivity analysis was further conducted to identify key factors affecting segment internal forces. 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This study clarifies the mechanical response law of segments under variable groundwater levels and identifies key sensitive parameters for structural reliability, providing valuable theoretical and engineering references for the optimal design and safety control of shield tunnel linings in similar water-rich soft strata.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Mechanical responses and probabilistic sensitivity analysis of shield tunnel segment in water-rich soft strata","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2026-04-10 06:47:26","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9240500/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0},{"type":"decision","content":"Revision requested","date":"2026-04-21T09:02:47+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"17122805367884894947899283038755699252","date":"2026-04-21T01:58:55+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2026-04-18T09:48:14+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"336526264496410526214858636059488154025","date":"2026-04-17T17:23:27+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"320241778681371041806175693105490436253","date":"2026-04-16T06:22:53+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"325697560035120373620114145844757147975","date":"2026-04-12T13:49:52+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2026-04-09T06:35:06+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"274411361054000701728473015265369617932","date":"2026-04-09T01:09:20+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewersInvited","content":"","date":"2026-04-06T06:57:57+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvited","content":"","date":"2026-04-02T14:52:09+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorAssigned","content":"","date":"2026-03-28T12:21:47+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"checksComplete","content":"","date":"2026-03-28T12:21:08+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"submitted","content":"Scientific Reports","date":"2026-03-27T05:36:14+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"scientific-reports","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"scirep","sideBox":"Learn more about [Scientific Reports](http://www.nature.com/srep/)","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Scientific Reports","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"stoa","reportingPortfolio":"Scientific Reports","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"356782d1-8873-48a4-a9a9-0b73e8fba6af","owner":[],"postedDate":"April 10th, 2026","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"under-review","subjectAreas":[{"id":65985688,"name":"Physical sciences/Energy science and technology"},{"id":65985689,"name":"Physical sciences/Engineering"}],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-05-14T01:39:39+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2026-04-10 06:47:26","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-9240500","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-9240500","identity":"rs-9240500","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"XKTyCvWXoU3ODBz1xrDgd","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}