Copula-Based Dependence Modeling for Seismic Gap Analysis in Tehran Province

Copula-Based Dependence Modeling for Seismic Gap Analysis in Tehran Province | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Copula-Based Dependence Modeling for Seismic Gap Analysis in Tehran Province Sedigheh Shams This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6495822/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Traditional approaches to testing the seismic gap hypothesis often rely on rigid assumptions about the joint distribution between earthquake magnitude and the time elapsed since the previous event. In this study, we introduce a flexible, copula-based statistical framework to model this dependence structure without enforcing a specific parametric form. Uniquely, our analysis also incorporates spatial dimensions by exploring the potential dependence between magnitude and geographic location (latitude and longitude). To address uncertainty in model selection, we adopt a model averaging technique that combines several candidate copulas, chosen based on their performance in minimizing Mahalanobis distance. This strategy enhances robustness and reduces the risk of bias from selecting a single dependence model. We apply this methodology to a real earthquake catalog from Tehran province—a densely populated and highly active seismic zone. Our findings reveal no significant dependence between magnitude and recurrence intervals, casting doubt on the validity of the seismic gap hypothesis in this region. These results provide new insights into seismic recurrence behavior and demonstrate the potential of copula-based models to support more data-driven seismic hazard assessments. Copula function Dependence modeling Mahalanobis distance Seismic gap hypothesis Full Text Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-6495822","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":449591398,"identity":"6368320f-0189-4a47-a30b-edf06678a6c0","order_by":0,"name":"Sedigheh Shams","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA5UlEQVRIiWNgGAWjYHACNhAhx8DOwMAMEzpAjBZjkHrStCQ2IGvBC+Qb2J89+JlTl97fzP7wc+EeOwb+9gOMhyvwaDE4wGNu2LvtcO6MwwzJ0jOeJTNInElgOHgGnxYGHjYJ3m0HchsOMxyQ5jkAdNsNBoaDDQQcJvl3W126/GHG5t88B+oZ5AlpAQaOmTTvNuYEg8PMbEBbDjMYENJicJjHTFp222HDjYfZ2Kx5DhznMTyT2IDfYe3tzyTfbquTlzve/vg2z4FqObnjhw9/xOsw9LjgYWBgxKthFIyCUTAKRgERAABc8khrhYShvwAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==","orcid":"","institution":"Alzahra University","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Sedigheh","middleName":"","lastName":"Shams","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-04-21 11:53:55","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6495822/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6495822/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":91157493,"identity":"2e65d52e-ed7e-491a-af9a-62124e0db465","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-09-12 08:23:31","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":413817,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"ActaCopula.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6495822/v1_covered_ee36ed58-c379-4a31-a382-f6c99bd06429.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"","formattedTitle":"Copula-Based Dependence Modeling for Seismic Gap Analysis in Tehran Province","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Copula function, Dependence modeling, Mahalanobis distance, Seismic gap hypothesis","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6495822/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6495822/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eTraditional approaches to testing the seismic gap hypothesis often rely on rigid assumptions about the joint distribution between earthquake magnitude and the time elapsed since the previous event. 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