Robust climate tests for fossil fuel supply under the Paris Agreement

Robust climate tests for fossil fuel supply under the Paris Agreement | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Robust climate tests for fossil fuel supply under the Paris Agreement Daniel Horen Greenford, Corey Lesk, Ashlee Barnes, Jasmine Roha Wakefield, and 2 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-9546305/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Countries worldwide have committed to achieving the Paris Agreement climate targets, yet continue to expand fossil fuel production, creating profound policy incoherence. Proposed "climate tests" for evaluating extraction projects differ fundamentally in logic and priorities, enabling permissive test selection. Here, we formalize a comprehensive suite of climate tests spanning dimensions of climate adequacy, techno-economic feasibility, and international equity, then apply this framework to UK oil and gas production. UK oil and gas reserves fail all 1.5°C climate tests, exceeding allocations following current extraction trends by 2.5 and 2.1 times, and equity-based allowances by 3.7–4.9 and 2.9–3.9 times, respectively. Oil production is highly constrained even under 1.7°C, where new projects beyond existing reserves fail all tests, also limiting gas coproduction that would pass if assessed in isolation. This framework reveals that UK fossil fuel expansion contradicts climate commitments regardless of priorities, providing a replicable methodology applicable to any producer. Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Climate-change mitigation Scientific community and society/Energy and society/Energy policy Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences/Climate-change policy Scientific community and society/Energy and society/Energy ethics Scientific community and society/Energy and society/Energy justice Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files HorenGreenford2026RobustclimatetestsSD.xlsx Supplementary Data for Robust climate tests for fossil fuel supply under the Paris Agreement HorenGreenford2026RobustclimatetestsSI.pdf Supplementary Information for Robust climate tests for fossil fuel supply under the Paris Agreement Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-9546305","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":634935086,"identity":"9e0f0b63-e7e4-4e21-bb7f-452c801ea0bf","order_by":0,"name":"Daniel Horen Greenford","email":"data:image/png;base64,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","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8390-9388","institution":"McGill University","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Daniel","middleName":"Horen","lastName":"Greenford","suffix":""},{"id":634935087,"identity":"a7381704-e418-45fd-9269-03a46a56ac00","order_by":1,"name":"Corey Lesk","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Université du Québec à Montréal","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Corey","middleName":"","lastName":"Lesk","suffix":""},{"id":634935088,"identity":"6fcf7de1-02cc-4b2a-b6ff-275580018fc1","order_by":2,"name":"Ashlee Barnes","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Uplift UK","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Ashlee","middleName":"","lastName":"Barnes","suffix":""},{"id":634935089,"identity":"d3b21b45-5b4c-4db1-9f17-51675fd5d6c9","order_by":3,"name":"Jasmine Roha Wakefield","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Uplift UK","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Jasmine","middleName":"Roha","lastName":"Wakefield","suffix":""},{"id":634935090,"identity":"c60085c8-a9e7-4ece-a65d-2aa8bbefc95c","order_by":4,"name":"Shannon M Lloyd","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1058-6765","institution":"Concordia University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Shannon","middleName":"M","lastName":"Lloyd","suffix":""},{"id":634935091,"identity":"1536eaad-b4b6-425a-982f-a9dc0094181d","order_by":5,"name":"H. 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