Global warming-adapted target forest types for Germany

Global warming-adapted target forest types for Germany | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Global warming-adapted target forest types for Germany Angela Schlutow, Mark Schlutow, Rainer Gemballa This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7235884/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 27 Feb, 2026 Read the published version in Environmental Sciences Europe → Version 1 posted 11 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract This research report provides tools for the initialization of near-natural forests adapted to global warming. The key idea is that target forest communities could naturally migrate from countries south of Germany—where the climatic conditions expected in Germany’s future have already existed for centuries. These specific forest communities have the unique ability to recreate their characteristic biocenosis in Germany and develop their typical biodiversity. The target forest types (TFT) thus serve as essential components in establishing forest development targets for ecological forest conversion. The BERN database serves as the basis for the modeling. In total, 1,143 plant communities (including 543 natural wood communities) were evaluated from data collections of largely undisturbed sites, preferably those dating before 1980. For this investigation, 498 phytosociological publications have been evaluated up to now, containing a total of 143,000 relevés with corresponding descriptions of the ecoclimatic and edaphic site factors from Central and Southern Europe. The oldest available published synoptic table serves as a reference for a community. Each community is characterized by ranges for fuzzy limits of pH value, base saturation, carbon to nitrogen ratio, volumetric soil water content, continentality index, climatic water balance, growing season length and photosynthetically active radiation from reference measured data. For the regionalization of global warming-adapted TFTs, a climatic classification for Germany is proposed, taking projected global warming into account. The parameters growing season length (period of days with > 10°C) and climatic water balance in the growing season are sufficient to establish a significant correlation to the occurrence of forest community groups (compiled according to main tree species). The evaluation of the measurement data (time series 1991–2020) and a simulation run of the RCP8.5 scenario (time series 2051–2080) resulted in a range of the growing season length from 55 to 246 d a -1 and a range of the climatic water balance in the growing season from − 47 to + 291 mm/month. The resulting 38,200 edaphic/climatic combination types (=”habitat types”) were assigned a total of 147 different TFTs. If multiple communities were possible at a single site type, an alternative assessment was conducted using 10 additional site factors. The mapping of the TFT for Germany was conducted using the 1:200,000 soil map, intersected with the climate class map. A factsheet with the reference site parameters and the vegetation structure was created for each TFT (Supplement 1).The results may help to support forestry decision-makers in forest conversion with regard to selection and structuring of tree species. The map, the factsheets and the ecograms form an essential basis for determining suitable climate- and site-adapted tree species proposals for entire Germany. Climate-change-adapted natural forest communities target forest types (TFT) BERN model forest-ecological climate classification of Germany vegetation structure of target forest types Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Supplementary Files Schlutow2Gemballatypesfactsheets28.6.25.docx Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 27 Feb, 2026 Read the published version in Environmental Sciences Europe → Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 24 Oct, 2025 Reviews received at journal 10 Sep, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 05 Sep, 2025 Reviews received at journal 01 Sep, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 01 Sep, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 31 Aug, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 30 Aug, 2025 Reviewers invited by journal 29 Aug, 2025 Editor assigned by journal 30 Jul, 2025 Submission checks completed at journal 30 Jul, 2025 First submitted to journal 28 Jul, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7235884","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":510022943,"identity":"cd519758-94d9-4329-a121-407c627b46ad","order_by":0,"name":"Angela Schlutow","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Angela","middleName":"","lastName":"Schlutow","suffix":""},{"id":510022945,"identity":"0ab8349d-add1-421a-b9f8-960bd5e46a49","order_by":1,"name":"Mark Schlutow","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAABE0lEQVRIiWNgGAWjYHACNoYHIIq9B8KBAcYGfFoSGAwYGHjOkKxFIgdVGKcW3f7Dzx4ktv2RM7j59vCLHwx8cubsB1g3F/xikO3HocXsRpq5QWKbgbHB7bw0yx4GNmPLngS22zP7GIxn4rDG7AYPmwRQS+K22zlmxoz/2BI3HABq4e1hADJwaDl/Bqrl5hkzY6DH6jecfwDRsh+XlgM5UC03eIwfA7UkGNwA2sLzA2gLbr+YSSScMza2P5OXxgj0i+GGGw/bbs9skDCegdNhh59JfCiTk5NsP3v4ww+GY/IG55OP3S74YyPbj8P7yIBNgoHhGAMoRpgZ2yQIqwcC5g8MDDUQFsMfonSMglEwCkbByAAAJmBgfykBJbYAAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"","institution":"Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Mark","middleName":"","lastName":"Schlutow","suffix":""},{"id":510022947,"identity":"1c6c7834-d8c0-43fa-bbc0-58936d5c5db2","order_by":2,"name":"Rainer Gemballa","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Competence Center Forest and Forestry of the State Enterprise Sachsenforst Pirna","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Rainer","middleName":"","lastName":"Gemballa","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-07-28 16:23:19","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7235884/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7235884/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[{"content":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s12302-025-01291-7","type":"published","date":"2026-02-27T15:58:50+00:00"}],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":103765724,"identity":"34aabe9d-eb0d-478b-a4de-5bd0fe3fd156","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-03-02 16:08:15","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1866305,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Schlutow2GemballaTargetforesttypes29.7.25formatted.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7235884/v1_covered_64c6ba69-4d66-4d40-8182-9dac978f5367.pdf"},{"id":90670334,"identity":"f9c08c1e-d954-434b-a80e-35b7d7765ffc","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-09-05 13:25:57","extension":"docx","order_by":0,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":1062085,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Schlutow2Gemballatypesfactsheets28.6.25.docx","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7235884/v1/551d200382a592d1f84bbaff.docx"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Global warming-adapted target forest types for Germany","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":true,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"environmental-sciences-europe","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"eseu","sideBox":"Learn more about [Environmental Sciences Europe](http://enveurope.springeropen.com)","snPcode":"12302","submissionUrl":"https://submission.nature.com/new-submission/12302/3","title":"Environmental Sciences Europe","twitterHandle":"@SpringerOpen","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"em","reportingPortfolio":"BMC/SO AJ","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Climate-change-adapted natural forest communities, target forest types (TFT), BERN model, forest-ecological climate classification of Germany, vegetation structure of target forest types","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7235884/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7235884/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eThis research report provides tools for the initialization of near-natural forests adapted to global warming. The key idea is that target forest communities could naturally migrate from countries south of Germany\u0026mdash;where the climatic conditions expected in Germany\u0026rsquo;s future have already existed for centuries. These specific forest communities have the unique ability to recreate their characteristic biocenosis in Germany and develop their typical biodiversity. The target forest types (TFT) thus serve as essential components in establishing forest development targets for ecological forest conversion. The BERN database serves as the basis for the modeling. In total, 1,143 plant communities (including 543 natural wood communities) were evaluated from data collections of largely undisturbed sites, preferably those dating before 1980. For this investigation, 498 phytosociological publications have been evaluated up to now, containing a total of 143,000 relev\u0026eacute;s with corresponding descriptions of the ecoclimatic and edaphic site factors from Central and Southern Europe. The oldest available published synoptic table serves as a reference for a community. Each community is characterized by ranges for fuzzy limits of pH value, base saturation, carbon to nitrogen ratio, volumetric soil water content, continentality index, climatic water balance, growing season length and photosynthetically active radiation from reference measured data.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eFor the regionalization of global warming-adapted TFTs, a climatic classification for Germany is proposed, taking projected global warming into account. The parameters growing season length (period of days with \u0026gt;\u0026thinsp;10\u0026deg;C) and climatic water balance in the growing season are sufficient to establish a significant correlation to the occurrence of forest community groups (compiled according to main tree species).\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eThe evaluation of the measurement data (time series 1991\u0026ndash;2020) and a simulation run of the RCP8.5 scenario (time series 2051\u0026ndash;2080) resulted in a range of the growing season length from 55 to 246 d a\u003csup\u003e-1\u003c/sup\u003e and a range of the climatic water balance in the growing season from \u0026minus;\u0026thinsp;47 to +\u0026thinsp;291 mm/month. The resulting 38,200 edaphic/climatic combination types (=\u0026rdquo;habitat types\u0026rdquo;) were assigned a total of 147 different TFTs. If multiple communities were possible at a single site type, an alternative assessment was conducted using 10 additional site factors. The mapping of the TFT for Germany was conducted using the 1:200,000 soil map, intersected with the climate class map. A factsheet with the reference site parameters and the vegetation structure was created for each TFT (Supplement 1).The results may help to support forestry decision-makers in forest conversion with regard to selection and structuring of tree species. The map, the factsheets and the ecograms form an essential basis for determining suitable climate- and site-adapted tree species proposals for entire Germany.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Global warming-adapted target forest types for Germany","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-09-05 13:25:52","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7235884/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0},{"type":"decision","content":"Revision requested","date":"2025-10-24T19:13:06+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2025-09-10T11:15:18+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"241391902258184082339564660409842816727","date":"2025-09-05T09:28:23+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2025-09-01T13:27:47+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"6949467742792632978774061805264090998","date":"2025-09-01T12:32:46+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"16992791947258348231421495314492646148","date":"2025-08-31T19:30:45+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"290277990338341133692094524998076288899","date":"2025-08-30T16:15:43+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewersInvited","content":"","date":"2025-08-29T16:51:51+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorAssigned","content":"","date":"2025-07-30T07:47:51+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"checksComplete","content":"","date":"2025-07-30T07:47:36+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"submitted","content":"Environmental Sciences Europe","date":"2025-07-28T16:19:02+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"environmental-sciences-europe","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"eseu","sideBox":"Learn more about [Environmental Sciences Europe](http://enveurope.springeropen.com)","snPcode":"12302","submissionUrl":"https://submission.nature.com/new-submission/12302/3","title":"Environmental Sciences Europe","twitterHandle":"@SpringerOpen","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"em","reportingPortfolio":"BMC/SO AJ","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"658f85ad-7942-4a64-a619-641cacf4e223","owner":[],"postedDate":"September 5th, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"published-in-journal","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-03-02T16:04:07+00:00","versionOfRecord":{"articleIdentity":"rs-7235884","link":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s12302-025-01291-7","journal":{"identity":"environmental-sciences-europe","isVorOnly":false,"title":"Environmental Sciences Europe"},"publishedOn":"2026-02-27 15:58:50","publishedOnDateReadable":"February 27th, 2026"},"versionCreatedAt":"2025-09-05 13:25:52","video":"","vorDoi":"10.1186/s12302-025-01291-7","vorDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s12302-025-01291-7","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-7235884","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-7235884","identity":"rs-7235884","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}