Effectiveness and trend forecasting of tuberculosis diagnosis after the introduction of rapid molecular testing in a city in south-eastern Brazil

Abstract Background To evaluate the effectiveness of a rapid molecular test for the detection of tuberculosis and to predict the behaviour of the disease in a municipality of Brazil where tuberculosis is endemic. Methods An ecological study was carried out in Ribeirão Preto-SP on a population of tuberculosis cases notified between 2006 and 2017. Monthly tuberculosis incidence rates and the Average Monthly Percentage Change (AMPC) were calculated. In order to identify changes in the series, the breakpoint technique was performed; the rates were modelled and predictions of the incidence of tuberculosis until 2025 were made. Results AMPC showed a fall of 0.69% per month in tuberculosis and human immunodeficiency virus (TB-HIV) co-infection, a fall of 0.01% per month in general and lung tuberculosis and a fall of 0.33% per month in extrapulmonary tuberculosis. With the breakpoint technique, general and pulmonary tuberculosis changed in structure in late 2007, and extrapulmonary tuberculosis and TB-HIV co-infection changed in structure after 2014, which is considered as the cut-off point. The IMA(3) models were adjusted for general and pulmonary tuberculosis and TB-HIV co-infection, and the AR(5) models for extrapulmonary TB, and predictions were performed. Conclusions It is necessary that the algorithms for the care of a person with tuberculosis are followed and the diagnostic means used correctly in order to break the chain of transmission of tuberculosis and reduce its indexes.