Agroforestry can reduce trade-offs between economic and ecological benefits, but only when uncertainties are considered

Agroforestry can reduce trade-offs between economic and ecological benefits, but only when uncertainties are considered | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Agroforestry can reduce trade-offs between economic and ecological benefits, but only when uncertainties are considered Thomas Knoke, Carola Paul, Elizabeth Gosling, Esther Reith, Peter Annighöfer, and 14 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-5533706/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 06 Jun, 2025 Read the published version in Agroforestry Systems → Version 1 posted 10 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Persistent uncertainty about the economic implications of agroforestry presents a major barrier to adoption. Despite this, most research to date ignores the impact of uncertainty on land allocation decisions, with studies commonly relying on simplistic scenarios involving a dichotomous choice between switching entirely to agroforestry or retaining the status quo system. For a more realistic decision problem, we explore partial adoption choices by analysing how the performance of landscape portfolios under combined ecological and economic uncertainty changes when managers can incorporate two agroforestry alternatives (silvopasture and alley cropping) alongside existing land-use options. Drawing on published data from smallholders in Panama, we use robust optimisation to allocate fractions of land area across six agroforestry and non-agroforestry land uses under a range of possible futures. We visualise trade-offs between uncertain ecological and economic benefits using robust Pareto frontiers. We find that neglecting uncertainty reduces the attractiveness of agroforestry. Instead, agroforestry becomes increasingly competitive as uncertainty grows, and incorporating it into landscape portfolios can mitigate trade-offs between ecological and economic objectives when the future is uncertain. We conclude by outlining a research agenda for a more holistic approach to agroforestry economics under global change. Land-use allocation Robust optimisation Multicriteria decision analysis Pareto frontiers Portfolio approach Sustainable land use Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 06 Jun, 2025 Read the published version in Agroforestry Systems → Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 24 Mar, 2025 Reviews received at journal 16 Mar, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 07 Mar, 2025 Reviews received at journal 07 Mar, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 05 Mar, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 27 Feb, 2025 Reviewers invited by journal 04 Dec, 2024 Editor assigned by journal 29 Nov, 2024 Submission checks completed at journal 28 Nov, 2024 First submitted to journal 27 Nov, 2024 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-5533706","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":387658975,"identity":"5e13b60a-3429-4013-b3c8-5a199562a99b","order_by":0,"name":"Thomas 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