Characteristics of the 2022 Luding M6.8 earthquake activity energy field, Sichuan Province, China

Characteristics of the 2022 Luding M6.8 earthquake activity energy field, Sichuan Province, China | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Characteristics of the 2022 Luding M6.8 earthquake activity energy field, Sichuan Province, China Guofu Luo, Yin Wang, Yingcai Xu, Bingzheng Hou This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-9515527/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted 6 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Effectively capturing the anomalies in the energy field during strong earthquakes and quantifying relationships between strong earthquakes and spatiotemporal evolution of energy fields may help predict strong earthquakes. We used the natural orthogonal function method (NOF) to investigate spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of the energy field and its relationship with the disaster genesis of the 2014 Kangding M 6.3 and 2022 Luding M 6.8 earthquakes. Time and location of regional earthquakes were treated as independent variables and the energy field as the dependent variable. The energy fields exhibited significant high-value or low-value temporal anomalies before both strong earthquakes, with deviations reaching twice the root mean square against a stable background. These anomalies were concentrated in the first four energy fields and exhibited multi-component characteristics, with the first energy field accounting for more than 85% of the total. Temporally, the anomalies displayed long-term, medium-term, and short-term characteristics, but no imminent pre-earthquake anomalies were observed. The anomalous periods in the cumulative earthquake frequency curve and the cumulative energy release curve in the study area were generally consistent with those of the first four temporal factors of the energy field, indicating that the anomalies extracted by the NOF method are relatively reliable and accurate. Further, a high-gradient “8” shaped anomalous hazardous zone occurred in the seismic energy field due to regional seismic energy release 1 and 10 years before the two strong earthquakes. Short-term precursory signals occur thus before strong earthquakes, with the high-energy regions around major active faults representing potential locations for strong earthquakes. The high-energy release by the main shocks and aftershocks is consistent with seismic intensities reaching above degree VI, and the affected regions are also the most heavily affected disaster zones. Focal mechanism solutions and numerical simulation results for the source tectonic stress system indicate insufficient energy release and relatively small impact in the principal compressive stress direction for the optimal shear stress nodal planes of the tectonic stress field during the two earthquakes, resulting in relatively light disaster impacts. Currently, the southern segment of the Xianshuihe Fault and the Anninghe Fault exhibit persistently high levels of seismic energy release, indicating a potential risk for future strong earthquakes, thus warranting attention. Luding Ms6.8 earthquake natural orthogonal function (NOF) seismic energy field temporal and spatial anomaly strong earthquake prediction earthquake disasters Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted Reviewers agreed at journal 11 May, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 11 May, 2026 Reviewers invited by journal 11 May, 2026 Editor assigned by journal 29 Apr, 2026 Submission checks completed at journal 27 Apr, 2026 First submitted to journal 24 Apr, 2026 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-9515527","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":630253603,"identity":"2d933928-7bfe-4a28-80f1-148645c9e79f","order_by":0,"name":"Guofu Luo","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA00lEQVRIiWNgGAWjYBACPgglx8DAzP/wQUJFDWEtbBDKmIGBvYfZ4MGZY6Ro4TnDJvmwhZkILRLJh1/zVBgkNkjkHqtIbGBj4G/vTiCgJS3NmucMSEte2o3EHTIMEmfObiCgJcfMmLftD1BLgtmNxDNsDAYSuURpMQBrKUhsYyZKi/FjsBaeM2YMxGnheZbGOOeMgXEDe1uyRMKZYzwE/cLPnnz4w5sKA9kGZuaDH39U1Mjxt/fi1wJ2G4i0PwDh8RBSDgLMH4hRNQpGwSgYBSMYAACDd0L5MHrIVAAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==","orcid":"","institution":"Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region Earthquake Agency","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Guofu","middleName":"","lastName":"Luo","suffix":""},{"id":630253610,"identity":"2d1ed898-154d-4cd6-a45d-756aed42e2c7","order_by":1,"name":"Yin Wang","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region Earthquake Agency","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Yin","middleName":"","lastName":"Wang","suffix":""},{"id":630253611,"identity":"7c9f1003-dce7-42ad-9b77-9c739c3c458b","order_by":2,"name":"Yingcai Xu","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region Earthquake Agency","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Yingcai","middleName":"","lastName":"Xu","suffix":""},{"id":630253612,"identity":"eb4d889c-6423-4c14-ac9f-90bd7248c7c5","order_by":3,"name":"Bingzheng Hou","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region Earthquake Agency","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Bingzheng","middleName":"","lastName":"Hou","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2026-04-24 09:59:16","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9515527/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9515527/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":107964015,"identity":"9bf30118-f0da-4f8c-bb9a-c1ff16bea4c4","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-04-28 05:21:02","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1557053,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Manuscript.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-9515527/v1_covered_1a52bc10-813a-4c26-a134-9f0714b80b88.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Characteristics of the 2022 Luding M6.8 earthquake activity energy field, Sichuan Province, China","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"pure-and-applied-geophysics","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"paag","sideBox":"Learn more about [Pure and Applied Geophysics](https://www.springer.com/journal/24)","snPcode":"24","submissionUrl":"https://submission.nature.com/new-submission/24/3","title":"Pure and Applied Geophysics","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"em","reportingPortfolio":"Springer Hybrid","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"Luding Ms6.8 earthquake, natural orthogonal function (NOF), seismic energy field, temporal and spatial anomaly, strong earthquake prediction, earthquake disasters","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9515527/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9515527/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eEffectively capturing the anomalies in the energy field during strong earthquakes and quantifying relationships between strong earthquakes and spatiotemporal evolution of energy fields may help predict strong earthquakes. We used the natural orthogonal function method (NOF) to investigate spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of the energy field and its relationship with the disaster genesis of the 2014 Kangding \u003cem\u003eM\u003c/em\u003e6.3 and 2022 Luding \u003cem\u003eM\u003c/em\u003e6.8 earthquakes. Time and location of regional earthquakes were treated as independent variables and the energy field as the dependent variable. The energy fields exhibited significant high-value or low-value temporal anomalies before both strong earthquakes, with deviations reaching twice the root mean square against a stable background. These anomalies were concentrated in the first four energy fields and exhibited multi-component characteristics, with the first energy field accounting for more than 85% of the total. Temporally, the anomalies displayed long-term, medium-term, and short-term characteristics, but no imminent pre-earthquake anomalies were observed. The anomalous periods in the cumulative earthquake frequency curve and the cumulative energy release curve in the study area were generally consistent with those of the first four temporal factors of the energy field, indicating that the anomalies extracted by the NOF method are relatively reliable and accurate. Further, a high-gradient \u0026ldquo;8\u0026rdquo; shaped anomalous hazardous zone occurred in the seismic energy field due to regional seismic energy release 1 and 10 years before the two strong earthquakes. Short-term precursory signals occur thus before strong earthquakes, with the high-energy regions around major active faults representing potential locations for strong earthquakes. The high-energy release by the main shocks and aftershocks is consistent with seismic intensities reaching above degree VI, and the affected regions are also the most heavily affected disaster zones. Focal mechanism solutions and numerical simulation results for the source tectonic stress system indicate insufficient energy release and relatively small impact in the principal compressive stress direction for the optimal shear stress nodal planes of the tectonic stress field during the two earthquakes, resulting in relatively light disaster impacts. Currently, the southern segment of the Xianshuihe Fault and the Anninghe Fault exhibit persistently high levels of seismic energy release, indicating a potential risk for future strong earthquakes, thus warranting attention.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Characteristics of the 2022 Luding M6.8 earthquake activity energy field, Sichuan Province, China","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2026-04-28 05:20:52","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9515527/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"146772212743771101119405868291207188275","date":"2026-05-11T22:29:08+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"16918846571232510626271174724789382790","date":"2026-05-11T12:52:02+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewersInvited","content":"","date":"2026-05-11T09:09:30+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorAssigned","content":"","date":"2026-04-29T15:03:52+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"checksComplete","content":"","date":"2026-04-27T10:38:19+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"submitted","content":"Pure and Applied Geophysics","date":"2026-04-24T09:37:19+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"pure-and-applied-geophysics","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"paag","sideBox":"Learn more about [Pure and Applied Geophysics](https://www.springer.com/journal/24)","snPcode":"24","submissionUrl":"https://submission.nature.com/new-submission/24/3","title":"Pure and Applied Geophysics","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"em","reportingPortfolio":"Springer Hybrid","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"bc784b96-e2b6-4f06-8f07-cbe09a0f3592","owner":[],"postedDate":"April 28th, 2026","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"146772212743771101119405868291207188275","date":"2026-05-11T22:29:08+00:00","index":15,"fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"16918846571232510626271174724789382790","date":"2026-05-11T12:52:02+00:00","index":13,"fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewersInvited","content":"6","date":"2026-05-11T09:09:30+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""}],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"under-review","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-05-11T09:23:49+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2026-04-28 05:20:52","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-9515527","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-9515527","identity":"rs-9515527","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"XKTyCvWXoU3ODBz1xrDgd","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}