Examining the Causes and Consequences of Medicine Theft Using Remote Tracking Technologies

Examining the Causes and Consequences of Medicine Theft Using Remote Tracking Technologies | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Examining the Causes and Consequences of Medicine Theft Using Remote Tracking Technologies Ryan Jablonski, Brigitte Seim, Mariana Carvalho, Clark Gibson This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-5835387/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract A substantial share of public medical supplies in developing countries go missing annually, contributing to citizen morbidity and mortality. While officials blame both mismanagement and theft for the losses, the opacity and fragmentation of their supply chains challenge efforts to determine the causes and levels of medicine diversion. We employ a novel research design using remote tracking devices placed in nearly 2,400 medicine boxes to assess these issues in Malawi, a country hampered by public sector corruption. Combining tracking data with survey data from 3,360 individuals and 453 health officials, we find important patterns to medicine diversion in Malawi. Following models of bureaucratic corruption, our evidence suggests individuals maximize benefits by stealing higher value medicines and in settings with less risk. We also find less diversion when deliveries occur under community-level monitoring. Finally, our results show medicine diversion predicts higher stockouts and citizen morbidity, particularly among poorer patients. Our study provides proof of concept for adapting new tracking technologies to explore more accurately the sources and consequences of medicine diversion, and offers insights about the design and management of medicine supply chains. Health sciences/Health care/Public health Scientific community and society/Social sciences/Government Scientific community and society/Social sciences/Economics Health sciences/Risk factors Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files Medicinetheft13.pdf rs.pdf Reporting Summary SI4Feb2025.pdf Supplementary Information Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-5835387","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":412293331,"identity":"d52c59cf-a99a-43a5-8041-35d20f766a95","order_by":0,"name":"Ryan 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