Long-Term Desiccation Dynamics: AI-Driven Projections of the Dead Sea’s Fate Through 2345

Long-Term Desiccation Dynamics: AI-Driven Projections of the Dead Sea’s Fate Through 2345 | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Long-Term Desiccation Dynamics: AI-Driven Projections of the Dead Sea’s Fate Through 2345 yusra Al-husban, hamza ikhmaes This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-9114776/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract The Dead Sea, located within the Dead Sea Transform Fault System (DSTFS), is experiencing a severe hydrological decline marked by rapid decreases in both water level and surface area. This study analyzed long-term changes using a 1970 baseline map and multi-temporal satellite datasets from the USGS archive, integrating high-resolution Sentinel imagery with Landsat (1–9) data covering 1975–2025. Historical results reveal a pronounced multi-phase recession, with the most rapid contraction occurring between 1970 and 1985, when the sea lost approximately 28.49% of its surface area at a peak rate of 34.21 km² per year, leading to the complete desiccation of the southern basin. Future projections were generated using a Multivariate Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model combined with bathymetric analysis to forecast conditions until 2345. The results indicate a continued and irreversible decline, with a total surface area reduction of 55.31%, shrinking the Dead Sea to about 317.1 km² and lowering the water level to approximately − 637.4 m, ultimately transforming it into a hypersaline remnant basin. Geographic Information Systems Hypersaline terminal lake Shoreline retreat Bathymetric Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) Full Text Additional Declarations The authors declare no competing interests. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-9114776","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":605656542,"identity":"bfa90828-129b-4479-a3c3-77ac60bf5a8a","order_by":0,"name":"yusra Al-husban","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA5klEQVRIiWNgGAWjYHACxsNAIoGBgfmAAYjXAOYQAFAtbAkka+ExYIBqwQ8MDjA/OFzYVpfHP7vnQzEPg43shgMMDx/g18JmcHhm2+FiiTtnNxjzMKQZA7UkG+DXwmBwmLftQGLDjVyQlsOJQC1pEvi1sH8AaqlLnH8j5wFQy39itPCAbGFO3HAjhwGo5QBhLZKHeQoO85w7XGx4I83AcI5BsvHMwwT8wne8feNjnrK6PLkbyc8M3lTYyfYd70l8gE+LwmEEm82AAWQ8M08CPh0M8g0INjPUcPYDeLWMglEwCkbBiAMAXs5QkSXXWWQAAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3522-5149","institution":"The Unversity of Jordan","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"yusra","middleName":"","lastName":"Al-husban","suffix":""},{"id":605657009,"identity":"e86ab005-12f4-4867-96af-f12b6bd0977f","order_by":1,"name":"hamza ikhmaes","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"The Unversity of Jordan","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"hamza","middleName":"","lastName":"ikhmaes","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2026-03-13 12:31:26","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":{"humanSubjects":false,"vertebrateSubjects":true,"conflictsOfInterestStatement":false,"humanSubjectEthicalGuidelines":false,"humanSubjectConsent":false,"humanSubjectClinicalTrial":false,"humanSubjectCaseReport":false,"vertebrateSubjectEthicalGuidelines":true},"doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9114776/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9114776/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":104783018,"identity":"d4e7db00-d88e-4ba7-b6ae-d4a2b65c4173","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-03-17 07:58:06","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":523990,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"AIDrivenProjectionsofDeadSeaDesiccationThrough2345.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-9114776/v1_covered_09f5d5b1-1afb-4899-ae73-45c0d2448df6.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"The authors declare no competing interests.","formattedTitle":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eLong-Term Desiccation Dynamics: AI-Driven Projections of the Dead Sea’s Fate Through 2345\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"The University of Jordan","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Hypersaline terminal lake, Shoreline retreat, Bathymetric, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM)","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9114776/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9114776/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eThe Dead Sea, located within the Dead Sea Transform Fault System (DSTFS), is experiencing a severe hydrological decline marked by rapid decreases in both water level and surface area. This study analyzed long-term changes using a 1970 baseline map and multi-temporal satellite datasets from the USGS archive, integrating high-resolution Sentinel imagery with Landsat (1\u0026ndash;9) data covering 1975\u0026ndash;2025. Historical results reveal a pronounced multi-phase recession, with the most rapid contraction occurring between 1970 and 1985, when the sea lost approximately 28.49% of its surface area at a peak rate of 34.21 km\u0026sup2; per year, leading to the complete desiccation of the southern basin. Future projections were generated using a Multivariate Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model combined with bathymetric analysis to forecast conditions until 2345. 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