Mangroves and their services are at risk from tropical cyclones and sea level rise under climate change

Mangroves and their services are at risk from tropical cyclones and sea level rise under climate change | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Mangroves and their services are at risk from tropical cyclones and sea level rise under climate change Sarah Hülsen, Laura Dee, Chahan Kropf, Simona Meiler, David Bresch This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-5346064/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 05 Apr, 2025 Read the published version in Communications Earth & Environment → Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Climate change is expected to alter the frequency and intensity of extreme events, modifying the natural disturbance regimes to which ecosystems are currently adapted. Here, we present a spatially explicit risk index for mangroves and their associated biodiversity and ecosystem services based on projected frequency changes of tropical cyclone wind speeds and rates of relative sea level rise under SSPs 245, 370 and 585 by 2100. Globally, approximately half of the total mangrove area (40-56% depending on the SSP) will be at high to severe levels of risk due to climate-modified tropical cyclone disturbance regimes. Further, we find mangrove areas with high levels of biodiversity and ecosystem services provision, including coastal protection for people and assets, carbon sequestration, and fishery benefits, are at proportionally higher levels of risk than mangrove forests generally. Our findings emphasize the need to anticipate changes in natural disturbance regimes and to adapt ecosystem management to sustain ecosystem services in the future. Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Climate-change impacts Earth and environmental sciences/Ecology/Ecosystem services Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files NCCHuelsenmangrovesriskSupMat.pdf Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 05 Apr, 2025 Read the published version in Communications Earth & Environment → Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-5346064","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":371817346,"identity":"c43f8f0f-33be-45d2-b190-738ae190b5f1","order_by":0,"name":"Sarah 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