When Confidence Fails: Uncertainty and the State-Dependent Power of Expectations

When Confidence Fails: Uncertainty and the State-Dependent Power of Expectations | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article When Confidence Fails: Uncertainty and the State-Dependent Power of Expectations Wenbo Jia, Haicheng Shu This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7969699/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Restoring economic confidence has long been viewed as a key objective of policy making, whereas its efficacy usually collapses when uncertainty surges. Using Chinese quarterly data from 2005 to 2023 in a multi-pillar empirical framework, this paper shows uncertainty governs the macroeconomic power of sentiment, revealing a stark but significant asymmetry: In low-uncertainty regimes, a positive confidence shock raises GDP by 0.9% over 12 quarters, but decreases GDP by 10.2% in high-uncertainty regimes, as transmission through expectations and credit disintegrates. Results also imply uncertainty acts as“gating mechanism”, making its reduction a precondition for effective policy intervention. JEL Codes: E32, E44, E61, C32 state-dependent expectations Nonlinear transmission Uncer tainty traps Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7969699","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":549641742,"identity":"d88157f7-21a8-4626-9358-73edcc2eddc8","order_by":0,"name":"Wenbo 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