Hidden heterogeneity in low-carbon cities via demand-sensitive carbon intensity

Hidden heterogeneity in low-carbon cities via demand-sensitive carbon intensity | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Hidden heterogeneity in low-carbon cities via demand-sensitive carbon intensity Yu Fujimoto, Soma Sugano, Masataka Mitsuoka, Yuto Ihara, Satoru Shimokawa, and 1 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8891089/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Urban decarbonization is commonly assessed using the carbon intensity (CI) of electricity consumption, yet this average indicator does not capture how emissions respond to changes in demand. Consequently, cities that appear low-carbon may exhibit structural vulnerabilities to demand growth. Here, we introduce demand-sensitive carbon intensity (sensitivity in CI; SCI) as a complementary diagnostic indicator that characterizes observed emission responses to incremental changes in electricity demand under existing system conditions. Using high-resolution smart meter data covering approximately 22.2 million demand contracts and 0.94 million photovoltaic (PV) generation contracts across 424 Japanese municipalities, we jointly evaluate CI and SCI at the municipal scale, accounting for voltage-level differences between residential and commercial–industrial sectors. The analysis reveals substantial hidden heterogeneity among cities with similar CI values, with some low-CI cities exhibiting high SCI. By distinguishing low-carbon states from low-carbon sustaining structures, the CI–SCI framework provides a basis for targeted urban decarbonization strategies. Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental sciences/Environmental impact Physical sciences/Energy science and technology/Energy modelling Carbon intensity Sensitivity Smart meters Decarbonization Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files Supplementary.pdf Supplementary information Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8891089","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":592671989,"identity":"99f2b96f-ad4d-4c4c-88a5-35ffbf17420b","order_by":0,"name":"Yu 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Consequently, cities that appear low-carbon may exhibit structural vulnerabilities to demand growth. Here, we introduce demand-sensitive carbon intensity (sensitivity in CI; SCI) as a complementary diagnostic indicator that characterizes observed emission responses to incremental changes in electricity demand under existing system conditions. Using high-resolution smart meter data covering approximately 22.2 million demand contracts and 0.94 million photovoltaic (PV) generation contracts across 424 Japanese municipalities, we jointly evaluate CI and SCI at the municipal scale, accounting for voltage-level differences between residential and commercial–industrial sectors. The analysis reveals substantial hidden heterogeneity among cities with similar CI values, with some low-CI cities exhibiting high SCI. 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