Reliability Estimation for Industrial Equipment Using EM Algorithm with Censored Data: A Case Study on Centrifugal Pumps in an Oil Refinery

Centrifugal pumps are widely employed in the oil refinery industry due to their efficiency and effectiveness in fluid transfer applications. The reliability of pumps plays a pivotal role in ensuring uninterrupted plant productivity and safe operations. Analysis of failure history data shows that bearings have been identified as critical components in oil refinery pump groups. However, traditional reliability estimation theories may not apply when data is limited or subject to right censoring. This paper addresses the complexity of estimating the Weibull distribution parameters using the maximum-likelihood method under the abovementioned conditions. The likelihood equation lacks an explicit analytical solution, necessitating the use of numerical methods for resolution. The proposed approach presented in this article leverages the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm for estimating the Weibull distribution parameters. This method provides more accurate estimates of failure rates and probabilities by accounting for limited and censored data. The findings are demonstrated through a case study, showcasing the practical application of the proposed approach.