A Review of State-of-the-art and Short-Term Forecasting Models for Solar PV Power Generation

Accurately predicting the power of solar power generation can greatly reduce the impact of the randomness and volatility of power generation on the stability of the power grid system, which is beneficial for the balanced operation and optimized dispatch of the power grid system, and reduces operating costs. Solar PV power generation depends on weather conditions, which are prone to large fluctuations under different weather conditions. Its power generation is characterized by randomness, volatility and intermittency. Recently, the demand for further investigation and effective use on the uncertainty of short-term solar PV power generation prediction has been getting increasing attention in many application of renewable energy sources. In order to improve the predictive accuracy of output power of solar PV power generation and develop a precise predictive model, the authors worked predictive algorithms for the output power of a solar PV power generation system. Moreover, since short-term solar PV power forecasting is one of the important aspects for optimizing the operation and control of renewable energy systems and electricity markets, this review focuses on the predictive models of solar PV power generation, which can be verified in the daily planning and operation of a smart grid system. In addition, the predictive methods in the reviewed literature are classified according to the input data source used for accurate predictive models, and the case studies and examples proposed are analyzed in detail. The contributions, advantages and disadvantages of the predictive probabilistic methods are compared. Finally, the future studies of short-term solar PV power forecasting is proposed.