Time Series Analysis of Human-Elephant Conflict Mortality Rates: A Case Study of the Coimbatore Forest Area

Time Series Analysis of Human-Elephant Conflict Mortality Rates: A Case Study of the Coimbatore Forest Area | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Time Series Analysis of Human-Elephant Conflict Mortality Rates: A Case Study of the Coimbatore Forest Area Charles Aaron Adams Ekuban This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6832292/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Human-elephant conflict (HEC) presents significant challenges to conservation and human safety, particularly in biodiversity hotspots like the Coimbatore Forest Area. This study employs time-series analysis to evaluate HEC-related human and elephant mortality from 1999 to 2022, identifying trends, seasonal patterns, and forecasts using ARIMA models. For human mortality, the ARIMA (2,1,0) model captures an increasing trend with high variability, forecasting 8–9 annual deaths by 2030, albeit with uncertainty. For elephant mortality, the ARIMA (0,1,1) model predicts a steady rise in fatalities, from 18.83 deaths in 2023 to 21.35 deaths by 2027. These forecasts highlight critical periods, such as dry seasons, for targeted interventions. The study emphasizes the escalating impact of HEC due to habitat encroachment, seasonal migration, and resource scarcity. Recommended mitigation strategies include improved fencing, early warning systems, and habitat restoration. By combining data-driven insights with community engagement, the research offers actionable solutions to foster sustainable coexistence between humans and elephants, supporting policymakers and conservationists. Human – Elephant Conflict Elephant mortality Time series Human mortality Habitat Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-6832292","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":491353552,"identity":"3f110387-9a5a-4027-b711-451644e6c6dc","order_by":0,"name":"Charles Aaron Adams Ekuban","email":"data:image/png;base64,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","orcid":"","institution":"Amrita School for Sustainable Futures, Amrita Vishwa Vidyapeetham","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Charles","middleName":"Aaron Adams","lastName":"Ekuban","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-06-05 23:38:06","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6832292/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6832292/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":87796535,"identity":"ff082c80-2f61-4313-b8e2-0cbdfabd1c41","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-07-29 07:07:00","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1408052,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"TimeSeriesAnalysisofHumanrevised.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6832292/v1_covered_5f2c9e3c-5a88-45cd-b08a-db891dfda181.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Time Series Analysis of Human-Elephant Conflict Mortality Rates: A Case Study of the Coimbatore Forest Area","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Human – Elephant Conflict, Elephant mortality, Time series, Human mortality, Habitat","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6832292/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6832292/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eHuman-elephant conflict (HEC) presents significant challenges to conservation and human safety, particularly in biodiversity hotspots like the Coimbatore Forest Area. 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