The Global Economic Impact of the 2026 Iran–US War: A Hybrid Time-Series and Comparative Cross-Country Analysis and Modelling

The Global Economic Impact of the 2026 Iran–US War: A Hybrid Time-Series and Comparative Cross-Country Analysis and Modelling | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article The Global Economic Impact of the 2026 Iran–US War: A Hybrid Time-Series and Comparative Cross-Country Analysis and Modelling Emmanuel Osei-Dwomoh, Baffour Osei, Abigail Boatemaa, Gabriel Osei Forkuo This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-9542524/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Background The United States–Israel military operation against Iran, launched on 28 February 2026 and codenamed Operation Epic Fury, triggered the most significant global energy security disruption since the 1970s oil embargo. The near-total blockade of the Strait of Hormuz — through which approximately 20 million barrels per day of crude oil and one-fifth of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade transit — generated cascading macroeconomic shocks across commodity, financial, and food markets worldwide. Methods This study employs a hybrid research design combining event-driven time-series analysis with comparative cross-sectional analysis covering 19 economies and the World aggregate. Five novel econometric models are proposed and calibrated to the observed data: (1) the Multi-Commodity Contagion Index (MCCI), a composite time-series shock index; (2) the Hormuz Chokepoint Vulnerability Index (HCVI), a cross-country Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression framework; (3) the Geopolitical Stagflation Surface (GSS), a nonlinear bivariate response surface; (4) the Threshold Structural Break Model (TSBM), applying Bai–Perron structural break detection to the oil risk premium series; and (5) the Cascading Supply-Chain Amplification Model (CSCAM), an input-output network multiplier framework. Results Brent crude oil prices surged 55.3% from $ 72.48 to $ 112.57 per barrel within one month. The MCCI peaked at 100 on 27 March 2026, revealing an escalation-to-abatement velocity ratio of 22:1. The HCVI OLS regression explains 84.7% of cross-country gross domestic product (GDP) revision variance ( R² = 0.847, N = 18 excluding structural outlier Iran). The TSBM identifies three structural breaks and a permanently elevated post-ceasefire risk premium of $ 24/bbl. The CSCAM estimates an aggregate global amplification multiplier of $ 3.20 GDP loss per $ 1 of chokepoint disruption. Conclusions The 2026 Iran–US war constitutes a compound geopolitical–economic shock with asymmetric regional consequences and a multi-commodity contagion architecture unprecedented in modern economic history. The novel models developed here provide a replicable framework for real-time assessment of future Hormuz disruption scenarios and broader geopolitical supply chain crises. energy security geopolitical risk global inflation gross domestic product contraction oil price shock supply chain disruption Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-9542524","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":630377266,"identity":"f44a1432-d3e0-4cb9-9a99-e6fd6fa3a283","order_by":0,"name":"Emmanuel Osei-Dwomoh","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Institute of Chartered Accountant-Ghana","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Emmanuel","middleName":"","lastName":"Osei-Dwomoh","suffix":""},{"id":630377267,"identity":"27ba5853-879f-4a39-a26d-99b9a44e2ad9","order_by":1,"name":"Baffour Osei","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of Skills Training and Entrepreneurial Development (USTED)","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Baffour","middleName":"","lastName":"Osei","suffix":""},{"id":630377268,"identity":"e54edd15-3443-4ef6-9bf5-89fe67898673","order_by":2,"name":"Abigail Boatemaa","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of Bradford","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Abigail","middleName":"","lastName":"Boatemaa","suffix":""},{"id":630377269,"identity":"3cd6eb03-9e91-4247-b3df-550c5f9d74e6","order_by":3,"name":"Gabriel Osei Forkuo","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA/0lEQVRIiWNgGAWjYFACHgaGBAYLBvYGBmYgz4YBSLERo0WCgecAWEsaUAszEVoYEFoOAzEBLfLuZ499eFAB1MLe+9iYp+J84nZ2/mOPeRjuyeHSYngmL3lGwhmgFp7jxsk8Z24n7mxmZjfmYSg2xqmlIceYIbFNgsFeIo35MG/b7cQNh5nZJGcwJCQ24NLS/wao5R/QFoiWc4S1yEuAbGmAaEnmbTsA1iLxAY8WA4l3yQwJxyR4eHiOMRvOOZNsDNRibvDBIAGnX+T7cw8z/qixkeNhb2OWeFNhJ7vh/MFnDxIqEnCGmMEBCM2DLo5LA9AWXC4eBaNgFIyCUQAHADWxS35CD5XtAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","orcid":"","institution":"Transilvania University of Brasov","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Gabriel","middleName":"Osei","lastName":"Forkuo","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2026-04-27 13:38:23","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9542524/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9542524/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":108018439,"identity":"02e2c973-ea22-443b-b996-e5a46b30eac9","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-04-28 14:07:07","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1739123,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"ManuscriptMainCE.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-9542524/v1_covered_d6dec468-e992-4970-a535-c3beb4132850.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"The Global Economic Impact of the 2026 Iran–US War: A Hybrid Time-Series and Comparative Cross-Country Analysis and Modelling","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"energy security, geopolitical risk, global inflation, gross domestic product contraction, oil price shock, supply chain disruption","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9542524/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9542524/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003ch2\u003eBackground\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe United States\u0026ndash;Israel military operation against Iran, launched on 28 February 2026 and codenamed Operation Epic Fury, triggered the most significant global energy security disruption since the 1970s oil embargo. The near-total blockade of the Strait of Hormuz \u0026mdash; through which approximately 20\u0026nbsp;million barrels per day of crude oil and one-fifth of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade transit \u0026mdash; generated cascading macroeconomic shocks across commodity, financial, and food markets worldwide.\u003c/p\u003e\u003ch2\u003eMethods\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eThis study employs a hybrid research design combining event-driven time-series analysis with comparative cross-sectional analysis covering 19 economies and the World aggregate. Five novel econometric models are proposed and calibrated to the observed data: (1) the Multi-Commodity Contagion Index (MCCI), a composite time-series shock index; (2) the Hormuz Chokepoint Vulnerability Index (HCVI), a cross-country Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression framework; (3) the Geopolitical Stagflation Surface (GSS), a nonlinear bivariate response surface; (4) the Threshold Structural Break Model (TSBM), applying Bai\u0026ndash;Perron structural break detection to the oil risk premium series; and (5) the Cascading Supply-Chain Amplification Model (CSCAM), an input-output network multiplier framework.\u003c/p\u003e\u003ch2\u003eResults\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eBrent crude oil prices surged 55.3% from \u003cspan\u003e$\u003c/span\u003e72.48 to \u003cspan\u003e$\u003c/span\u003e112.57 per barrel within one month. The MCCI peaked at 100 on 27 March 2026, revealing an escalation-to-abatement velocity ratio of 22:1. The HCVI OLS regression explains 84.7% of cross-country gross domestic product (GDP) revision variance (\u003cem\u003eR\u0026sup2;\u003c/em\u003e = 0.847, \u003cem\u003eN\u003c/em\u003e\u0026thinsp;=\u0026thinsp;18 excluding structural outlier Iran). The TSBM identifies three structural breaks and a permanently elevated post-ceasefire risk premium of \u003cspan\u003e$\u003c/span\u003e24/bbl. The CSCAM estimates an aggregate global amplification multiplier of \u003cspan\u003e$\u003c/span\u003e3.20 GDP loss per \u003cspan\u003e$\u003c/span\u003e1 of chokepoint disruption.\u003c/p\u003e\u003ch2\u003eConclusions\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe 2026 Iran\u0026ndash;US war constitutes a compound geopolitical\u0026ndash;economic shock with asymmetric regional consequences and a multi-commodity contagion architecture unprecedented in modern economic history. The novel models developed here provide a replicable framework for real-time assessment of future Hormuz disruption scenarios and broader geopolitical supply chain crises.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"The Global Economic Impact of the 2026 Iran–US War: A Hybrid Time-Series and Comparative Cross-Country Analysis and Modelling","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2026-04-28 14:06:57","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9542524/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"5d926729-5605-4bd3-9048-fb422156afec","owner":[],"postedDate":"April 28th, 2026","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-04-28T14:06:57+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2026-04-28 14:06:57","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-9542524","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-9542524","identity":"rs-9542524","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"XKTyCvWXoU3ODBz1xrDgd","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}