Beyond the Penrose Hypothesis: Examining the Association between the Availability of Psychiatric Care and National Homicide Rates in 166 Countries

The association between mental illness and violent crimes such as homicide is complex. In 1939, Lionel Penrose hypothesized that the availability of psychiatric hospital beds was inversely related to the prison population, presumably due to the hospitalization of potential offenders with a mental illness. Subsequent studies have found evidence for this association, but questions remain about the contributions of confounding factors. Moreover, there has been a move towards deinstitutionalization and community care of the mentally ill over the past six decades. In this study, the association between national homicide rates and three measures of the availability of psychiatric care – the numbers of psychiatrists, general hospital psychiatric beds, and psychiatric hospital beds per 100,000 population – was examined using a time-lagged correlation analysis. Associations between homicide rates and socioeconomic factors associated with crime were also examined. It was found that the availability of psychiatrists and of general hospital psychiatric beds were both negatively correlated with homicide rates, and that the association with general hospital psychiatric beds remained significant even after correction for confounding factors. These results suggest the need for a more nuanced interpretation of Penrose’s original formulation, involving the interplay of social, economic factors and psychological factors rather than linear causality.