The Global Threat of Sinking Deltas

The Global Threat of Sinking Deltas | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Physical Sciences - Article The Global Threat of Sinking Deltas Leonard Ohenhen, Manoochehr Shirzaei, James Davis, Ashutosh Tiwari, and 13 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6223150/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 14 Jan, 2026 Read the published version in Nature → Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract River deltas are essential socio-ecological systems, sustaining dense human populations, major economic centers, and vital ecosystems worldwide. Rising sea levels and subsiding land threaten the sustainability of these valuable landscapes with relative sea-level rise and associated flood, land-loss, and salinization hazards. Despite these risks, vulnerability assessments are impeded by the lack of contemporary, high-resolution delta-wide subsidence observations. Here, we present spatially variable surface elevation changes across 40 global deltas using interferometric synthetic aperture radar. Using this dataset, we quantify delta surface elevation loss and reveal the prevalence and severity of subsidence in river deltas worldwide. Our analysis shows that in 37% of global deltas, groundwater extraction is the primary anthropogenic driver of land subsidence. In other deltas, anthropogenic factors such as reduced sediment supply, urban expansion, and groundwater loss contribute secondarily to additional subsidence and exacerbated elevation loss. Furthermore, we find that contemporary subsidence surpasses absolute (geocentric) sea-level rise as the dominant driver of relative sea-level rise for most deltas in the 21st century. These findings emphasize the need for targeted interventions addressing subsidence as an immediate and localized challenge, in parallel with broader efforts to adapt to climate change-driven global sea-level rise. Earth and environmental sciences/Natural hazards Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental sciences/Environmental impact Earth and environmental sciences/Solid Earth sciences/Geophysics Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files supplementaryTables.xlsx Supplementary Tables 1 - 3 deltasupplementary.docx Supplementary Materials Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 14 Jan, 2026 Read the published version in Nature → Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-6223150","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Physical Sciences - Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":437956414,"identity":"94b05c7f-7d13-4c53-9422-7c437764d11a","order_by":0,"name":"Leonard 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